Sir Keir Starmer has hailed a “seismic result” for Labour after his party overwhelmingly won Scotland’s first recall by-election.
Labour candidate Michael Shanks won the Rutherglen and Hamilton West seat after securing more than twice the votes of his SNP rival Katy Loudon.
The result will pile more pressure on SNP leader and Scottish First Minister Humza Yousaf – who has seen his party’s fortunes decline in the polls in the wake of the continuing police investigation in SNP finances – ahead of a likely general election next year.
When is the next general election?
The last general election was called by Boris Johnson on 12 December, 2019, a rare winter election and one held three years earlier than needed amid a period of Brexit instability.
The current Parliament is set to be automatically dissolved on 17 December, 2024, five years from when it first sat, with a grace period meaning that in law the latest possible date for a general election is Tuesday 28 January, 2025.
However, it is expected that Rishi Sunak will not wait that long to call a vote.
One of the potential dates is Thursday 2 May, 2024, which would coincide with mayoral elections slated to be held in London, Greater Manchester and the West Midlands and save on costs relating to polling stations.
Equally, the Prime Minister may choose to wait until later in the year, in an effort to shore up more support and move the polls more in his party’s favour.
How often are general elections held?
The sitting prime minister has significant leeway to control the date of the next election by asking the monarch to dissolve Parliament, but a vote must be held at minimum once every five years.
The Tory-Lib Dem coalition government attempted to neuter the prime minister’s ability to determine when a general election is held by passing the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, which was intended to set the dates for elections in advance.
The law stipulated that an election should be automatically scheduled for the first Thursday in May of the fifth year after the previous general election, unless Parliament votes to hold one sooner. However, the law was repealed in 2022, after doing little to prevent Theresa May and Boris Johnson from calling snap elections with support from their MPs.
The Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022 restored the Government’s power to decide to call an early general election at any time upon request of the prime minister, without permission from Parliament.
MPs could also theoretically force a general election earlier than a prime minister wishes by passing a motion of no confidence in the Government. This last happened in 1979, when Labour prime minister James Callaghan’s minority government was toppled by a 311-310 vote brought by Margaret Thatcher. However, such a step is highly unlikely given the Conservatives hold a significant majority in the Commons.
What happened in the Scottish by-election?
The by-election was called after a recall petition against Margaret Ferrier, who had won the seat for the SNP in 2019 with a majority of 5,230.
She had the SNP whip removed after breaching Covid rules in 2020, and after remaining as an independent MP was suspended from the House of Commons, resulting in the recall petition.
Thursday’s by-election saw the SNP’s majority overturned by Labour after Mr Shanks won 17,845 votes, well ahead of the 8,399 votes returned for Ms Loudon.
After securing more than 58 per cent of the votes cast Mr Shanks now has a majority of 9,446.
Sir Keir hailed that as a “seismic result” adding that voters in the constituency had “sent a clear message” that it is “time for change”, and that people “believe that this changed Labour Party can deliver it”.
He added: “I have always said that winning back the trust of people in Scotland is essential. Tonight’s victory is the culmination of three-and-a-half years of hard work and humility on that journey.
“I am grateful to everyone who has put their faith in us today – we will work every day to repay it.
“Voters across Scotland and across Britain want a government determined to deliver for working people, with a proper plan to rebuild our country.
“They want to move on from two SNP and Tory governments that offer only more division, more chaos and more infighting.”
The Scottish Conservatives came in third place, with Thomas Kerr receiving 1,192 votes, ahead of Scottish Liberal Democrat candidate Gloria Adebo and Scottish Green Party candidate Cameron Eadie, who secured 895 and 601 votes respectively.
A total of 30,531 votes were cast in the by-election, with turnout standing at 37.2 per cent, well below the 66.5 per cent turnout in the last general election.
Mr Yousaf, who made frequent visits to the constituency during the election campaign, stressed his party was facing “some very difficult circumstances”.
But he said the buck would stop with him if his party failed to hold on to the seat, and afterwards he conceded it had been a “disappointing night” for the SNP.
