Public safety is at risk because the probation service is struggling to cope with the “chaos” of the Government’s early prisoner release scheme, whistleblowers have told i.
Plans to reintegrate prisoners into society are “thrown together in days” due to the overwhelming task of dealing with thousands of cases at once, probation officers revealed.
There are fears that offenders who have committed violent crimes will be let out early due to a “loophole” and that they will go on to commit further offences.
Probation officers are “terrified” they will get the blame. Overstretched staff have broken down in tears over the extra burden, i has heard.
The Government announced in the summer that an early release scheme known as SDS40 – cutting the proportion of a Standard Determinate Sentence prisoners in England and Wales must serve from 50 per cent to 40 per cent – was needed to deal with overcrowded prisons. The previous Conservative government also had an early release scheme to ease capacity issues.
The prison population currently stands at 85,794, with the total capacity at 88,938.
The breathing room of just over 3,000 spaces comes after around 2,800 prisoners were let out early in two mass releases, one in September and another in October, under the scheme which Labour said it would review in 18 months. The releases are ongoing so the figure is likely to rise.
Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood blamed the Conservatives for the emergency measure, arguing the prison system had been pushed to “the point of collapse”.
The Government promised that those who committed serious violent offences, sexual offences and domestic abuse-connected crimes would not be eligible for early release.
But probation officers told i that a “loophole” in the scheme means those with a history of violence and sexual offending are being released early. Whistleblowers’ names have been changed to protect their identity.
Peter, a probation officer working for the service in England for over 15 years, said it was “not safe” to release so many people at once.
“I don’t care what the press and public are being told – men with violent and sexual offending [histories] are coming out early, often with a risk management plan thrown together in days,” he said.
Peter said the “loophole”, first reported by Channel 4 News, around consecutive sentences mean that those with previous convictions for violence and sexual offences are getting out early because their most recent sentence – for a non-violent offence – is the one that counts.
While certain offences and sentences are excluded from early release, it does not apply to types of offenders.
“Violent and sexual offending offenders are being released early,” said the experienced probation officer. “[SDS40] has been designed by people who don’t understand risk.”
Daniel Dowling-Brooks gained notoriety when he shouted “Big up Keir Starmer” after being released early from HM Prison Swaleside. He had been serving a seven-year sentence for kidnap and grievous bodily harm.
The Prime Minister told reporters he was “really angry” about having to release prisoners early, but said his Government had been forced to act because jails were at “bursting point”.
There is also anger in the probation service, with fears the extra workload will lead to mistakes – whether through failures to provide enough support to help released offenders avoid bad habits, or failures to sound the alarm about licence violations.
A probation officer’s job is to protect the public and reduce reoffending. They have to evaluate the risk posed by people leaving prison, and supervise offenders in the community.
It usually takes probation officers, who are juggling dozens of cases at once, around six months to organise each individual’s offender management plan.
It involves contacting and keeping in touch with dozens of services to arrange housing, employment training, benefit claims, mental health support and any drug treatment needed.
Peter said some offenders had been let out with only a few days’ notice despite hopes that SDS40 would give probation staff more time to prepare than the Tory government’s early release scheme.
Under the Tory scheme, introduced in October 2023, eligible prisoners could be freed 18 days before their conditional release date. This was later expanded to 70 days.
Under SDS40 there is no set number of days but some are still coming out homeless, either placed in hostels or forced to sleep on the sofa of anti-social peers, increasing the risk of them reoffending, said Peter.
“There is absolutely no doubt that there are mistakes being made by staff, but it’s not about staff not being willing or wanting to do a decent job – it’s about capacity to do it.”
Prisoners who have been released should get support to ensure they are not homeless. They are also given a Subsistence Payment of £89.52.
Peter said burnout was causing staff shortages. “I regularly see experienced and resilient officers in tears. Newly qualified officers are moving on to other jobs, and older ones retiring in their droves. Recruitment is not keeping up.”
Annabelle has worked for the Probation Service in England for more than 15 years. In recent years she has acted as prison offender manager, preparing offenders for release.
She said both probation and prison staff expect to see many of the people released under SDS40 back behind bars soon.
“Some of the admin staff were in tears over it [SDS40], because it was just so difficult to organise things for so many people at one time,” Annabelle said. “We’re already so overwhelmed.”
“There will be people who re-offend, there will be people recalled to prison. Prison service staff are well aware it’s a revolving door.”
Annabelle is worried about gaps in the monitoring of released offenders. “You panic about any delay in communicating with another service, or missing something that’s happening [with the offender]”.
She added that “we’re the ones who cop the flak” when things “go seriously wrong”.
Jacob, a probation officer in England with over 10 years’ experience, said the job has increasingly felt “like you’re spinning plates” in recent years.
He said he has typically managed around 40 cases at once, working more than 60 hours a week. An experienced probation officer can earn up to £40,000 and should typically work 36 to 38 hours a week.
Early release is making things more stressful, according to Jacob, who said: “To have thousands of people coming out and to work with them effectively will be very difficult to achieve. It means cutting back on the amount of time we can work with people.”
Jacob said there were fears that some people released early will go on to commit serious further offences (SFOs) like murder, manslaughter and rape.
“There’s a sense of anxiety and exhaustion and fear that comes from worrying about SFOs, and the blame that comes with that.”
The latest statistics show SFO notifications – when an offender is charged with an offence which qualifies for an SFO review but doesn’t always lead to a conviction – in England and Wales rose to 770 in 2023/24. This marks a 33 per cent increase on the previous year.
A damning report by the HM Inspectorate of Probation into SFOs last year found that “not enough is being done to stop them reoffending”.
The inspectorate has also repeatedly cited “unmanageable workloads” and staff shortages in its SFO review reports.
The Napo trade union said probation staff were at “breaking point” trying to cope with early release on top of huge workloads.
National officer Tania Bassett said some probation staff were working on more than 70 cases at once. Many are working at 150 per cent of the amount expected of them, based on the Probation Service’s workload management tool which logs hours and how many high-risk cases someone has to deal with.
“The system feels broken at the moment,” said Ms Bassett. “We had one probation officer last year working to 230 per cent of what she was supposed to be doing.”
“That’s when it gets dangerous, because that’s when mistakes happen – when you have so many plates spinning. If you miss one thing, then things can go horribly wrong.”
Su McConnel, an ex-probation officer in Wales who retired in March, said: “I still speak to people who work in probation and they say the early release is causing chaos on the ground. Staff are terrified of getting blamed for something going wrong.”
Ms McConnel said there had been “pressure” from senior management to lower risk ratings so more cases can be handed over to probation services officers (PSOs) – the less experienced staff who supervise cases considered low and medium risk.
“The more you overstuff less experienced staff with medium and lower risk cases, the less time they have to notice something that indicates a risk is starting to brew,” she said.
i understands that the Probation Service’s risk assessment policy has not changed with the introduction of SDS40.
Jacob said he had felt the same pressure to lower risk ratings. “If the risk is reduced then we can move them onto somebody else, onto PSOs.”
Victims said they were dismayed by the ongoing problems in the probation service uncovered by i.
Farah Naz, the aunt of Zara Aleena who was killed by Jordan McSweeney nine days after he was released from jail in June 2021, previously said the Probation Service had “blood on their hands” over a series of failures, including errors in McSweeney’s risk assessment and missed opportunities to recall him.
Ms Naz said she is worried that not enough has changed since 2021. “If staff morale remains low, as seems to be the case, mistakes are likely to persist.”
“Overwork is not a valid excuse. Why weren’t senior leaders going to ministers and saying, ‘We’re overwhelmed; this is unworkable?’ Who takes responsibility here?”
Elizabeth Hudson, who was attacked by her former partner, is angry at the Government over the early release scheme, claiming that ministers had rushed it “without thinking it through properly”.
Her ex-husband Martin Underwood was jailed for just over six years for threatening to kill her and assaulting her, along with other charges for an attack on another woman, including non-fatal suffocation, while out on bail.
But since his attack on Ms Hudson was classed as assault instead of domestic abuse, he will be eligible for early release under SDS40 in June 2025.
“It was incredibly misleading to talk about it not applying to violent offenders. That was the thing that lulled me into a false sense of security,” said Ms Hudson.
“My fear is that probation, like all parts of the justice system, aren’t capable of coping. And prisons aren’t delivering proper rehabilitation either. So it’s a perfect storm of awfulness.”
Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced an extra £500m in the Budget for prisons and the probation system to recruit new staff and provide more electronic tags. The Government is promising to recruit 1,000 probation officers by the end of March.
However, unions are worried that it won’t keep pace with an ongoing exodus of staff. The latest figures show 2,357 people left the service in the past year – a rise of 10 per cent on the previous year.
There are no more mass release tranches planned under SDS40, but unions are worried that the ongoing early release of individuals who serve 40 per cent of their sentence will continue to put pressure on staff.
A Ministry of Justice spokesperson said the new Government “inherited a criminal justice system in crisis and was forced to take immediate action to prevent the breakdown of law and order”.
They said SDS40 “replaced the previous Government’s early release scheme with a system that gives staff more time to prepare offenders for release and excludes serious violent and sexual offences, as well as several domestic abuse-related offences”.
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