Since Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February, the country’s President Vladimir Putin has insisted his troops are carrying out a “special military operation” to “demilitarise” and “de-nazify” the country.
Russia’s military has failed in its initial military objectives after being met with heavy Ukrainian resistance. Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has told MPs that over 15,000 Russian troops have been killed during the conflict, alongside the loss of thousands of pieces of military equipment.
Last week, Mr Putin vowed to use nuclear weapons against any country that dares to “interfere” with Russia’s war after Moscow re-focused its efforts on seizing the east and southern coast of Ukraine.
But Western officials fear Putin may try and alter the dynamic of his failing military campaign by declaring war on Ukraine on 9 May, when Victory Day is celebrated in Russia, which marks the country’s defeat of the Nazis in 1945.
Why is 9 May such a big deal for Russia?
Russia’s Victory Day marks the date after which Nazi Germany surrendered and Soviet forces took control of Berlin.
On Victory Day, which is regarded as the proudest day in the Russian calendar, there is a military parade in Moscow – which includes exhibitions of the country’s military arsenal, including intercontinental ballistic missiles.
Mr Putin highlighted his personal experience of the war in a 2015 article, where he discussed how his mother and father were seriously injured during the siege of Leningrad, which lasted from 1941 to 1944, in the city which is now St Petersburg.
At last year’s event, there were more than 12,000 troops, 190 pieces of military hardware on show, plus a fly-past by nearly 80 military aircraft.
Speaking to CNN, James Nixey, director of the Russia-Eurasia Programme at defence thinktank Chatham House, said: “May 9 is designed to show off to the home crowd, to intimidate the opposition and to please the dictator of the time.”
What Putin’s ‘Victory Day’ parade could mean for the Ukraine war
It is feared by Western officials that Putin could use symbolic military significance of the day as reason to step up his campaign in Ukraine by officially declaring war on Ukraine and those who support it.
Mr Wallace previously told LBC that Putin could use the occasion to declare a new war on what he would call “the world’s Nazis” to galvanise his populace in another push against Ukraine.
“I would not be surprised… that he is probably going to declare on May Day that ‘we are now at war with the world’s Nazis and we need to mass mobilise the Russian people’,” Mr Wallace said last week.
“Putin, having failed in nearly all objectives, may seek to consolidate what he’s got… and just be a sort of cancerous growth within the country,” he continued.
More on Russia-Ukraine war
“We have to help Ukrainians effectively get the limpet off the rock and keep the momentum pushing them back.”
Mr Wallace said that while he had no intelligence saying Mr Putin was planning such an announcement, it was likely given his previous comments.
The Ministry of Defence (MoD)said last month that it is likely that Russia desires significant military gains ahead of Victory Day celebrations.
“This could affect how quickly and forcefully they attempt to conduct operations in the run-up to this date,” the MoD added.
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