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Hello and welcome back to i‘s science and tech newsletter. Our series of guest newsletters that try to untangle big issues affecting the twinned worlds of science and technology continue once more. I’m Chris Stokel-Walker, a freelance journalist and regular contributor to i.
This week, we’re focused on the election (fear not, there’s just a month or so more of it). Campaigning has got off to a flying start, not just on the ground where our political reporters have been out and about with the respective party leaders, but also on social media and the internet.
Plenty of people have called prior elections the first “social media election”. Enough that it’s not true to try and claim the mantle for this one, at least a decade-and-a-half after the title was first bestowed on a race to 10 Downing Street. But some commentators who have called it the first post-TV election may be on to something. Now, more than ever, it feels like digital platforms are more important, if not the be all and end all, of campaign success.
Which is perhaps why we’re seeing both main parties devoting quite so much time to massaging their message online. And we’re all watching.
Labour 3-0 Conservatives
Take a glance at social media and it’s clear that Sir Keir Starmer’s party has supremacy online. They’ve managed to not only outmanoeuvre the Tories with deft use of memes, but they’ve also seemingly been everywhere – which has helped cement public perception that they’re just better at this.
Certainly, Labour is taking the lead on TikTok, according to social media expert Matt Navarra. “If you look at the numbers on the accounts, both in terms of following, and total likes, and then you look at the individual videos, as an average, the performance of the Labour Party is as you probably would predict,” he said. “They’re nailing numbers all over the place, because it’s perfect meme fodder.”
That’s supported by public polling by Ipsos, published on 29 May, which suggests four in 10 think the Tories are having a bad campaign so far – twice the level who say Labour are struggling
From repurposing clips from iconic figures like Cilla Black (singing the theme from Surprise, Surprise in response to the Conservatives’ plans to reinstate national service, seen 4.2 million times) and Gemma Collins (to capture Tory MP Steve Baker’s purported feelings at an election campaign interrupting his Greek holiday, seen 280,000 times), Labour has fully embraced the meme. Labour has also deftly compared the footballing prowess of Starmer – noted for being better at five-a-side than you’d think – to Rishi Sunak who recently went viral for his attempts at dribbling around cones, all of which have reached hundreds of thousands, if not millions of views.
However, the meme-heavy messaging may not be the best approach with an election looming. “They’re tapping into what people are already feeling about the Conservative Party,” said Navarra. But he added a note of caution. “They seem to be preaching to the converted in many ways.”
Strong, stable and serious?
i understands some within the Conservative camp believe they should avoid adopting the approach of spraying memes around social media and continue with the current approach of trying to echo their wider campaign motto of having a plan and policies that they explain to the public. The current aim, it’s believed, is to try and increase recognition for that message by sticking to it, rather than being drawn to one meme or another. And while they’re posting less, some videos are drawing real eyeballs. Sunak’s video announcing national service plans was seen 2.5 million times on TikTok – not bad given they have only 33,000 followers on the app, a quarter of Reform UK’s presence. (Real TikTok aficionados will tell you that followers don’t count on TikTok as much as elsewhere.)
The Conservative approach appears to be to present themselves as a professional, serious government, rather than the jokey mate on the WhatsApp group. However, Navarra has identified a difference in how the party presents itself on different platforms. On X, formerly Twitter, the Tories appear more reactive and attack-focused on Labour’s potential plans for power, while on TikTok the party is presenting a more positive approach of what they’d do.
That includes weaponising Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron, whose walk-and-talk monologues to camera proved a social media hit prior to the election. A video featuring him explaining why to vote Conservative proved somewhat popular when posted on 28 May, gaining 156,000 views in less than 20 hours.
The difference in messaging reflects the different platforms. “X is very short term, very quick, very reactionary,” said Navarra. “And the dialogue is often more toxic there than anywhere else.”
The broader Tory approach, believes Navarra, might be about stemming the losses expected on 4 July. “They’re up against a huge battle to win the hearts and minds of voters, whether it’s through social media or any other platform,” he said. “I think maybe it’s a damage limitation exercise. Is it more about how many votes can they save rather than can they turn this thing around at this point?”
National service stokes negativity
However, data analysed by Pulsar Platform, a social media listening company, exclusively for i suggests that at least when it comes to social media chatter, some of the Tories’ campaign pledges are cutting through.
An analysis of 16,000 mentions of the national service policy on traditional media, including online news platforms, TV, radio and podcasts, and 179,000 further mentions on social media suggest that the policy captured the public’s attention. Not always in a good way: by far and away, the conversation centred around how the policy would stoke intergenerational conflict.
Comparatively few people supported the scheme, but it shows that the policy is capturing the conversation. “Across socials and media, intergenerational conflict is rife,” said Alex Bryson of Pulsar Platform. “This suggests that, in spite of widespread criticism and mockery, the policy has had some success in drawing battle lines that could shore up elements of the Conservative vote.
Hey, big spender
Much of the focus thus far this election has been on TikTok, but the Tories appear to be ahead on YouTube and LinkedIn, while the parties are more evenly matched on Facebook. As we get closer to election time, paid advertising promotion will begin to be more important alongside so-called “organic” content designed to cut through everything on your feeds.
Spending this year is already on track to outstrip past elections, according to Kate Dommett, professor of digital politics at the University of Sheffield, who said more than £5m has been spent by political parties on Meta advertising since January, before the election was announced.
But it’s not just the big two parties that are splashing the cash in an attempt to gain your vote. In fact, the highest-spending political candidate in the last week or so, before parliament is dissolved on Thursday and campaign spending limits are enforced by the Electoral Commission, is…
Green Party co-leader Carla Denyer. Between 22 and 27 May, Denyer spent nearly £7,000 on adverts across Meta’s platforms, which include Instagram and Facebook, according to analysis by Who Targets Me, which aims to bring transparency to the world of online political advertising. In second place is Conservative candidate Virginia Crosbie, who spent around £6,100 in the same period.
Election 2024
Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer are out on the campaign trail after the Prime Minister announced a surprise snap election on 22 May. i‘s general election live blog follows all the twists and turns of the election period from all the major parties.
So far, the Tories have announced a controversial mandatory national service policy which has garnered mixed opinion from across the political spectrum, and a “triple lock plus” for pensioners. Meanwhile, Starmer has set out a five-year plan to clear the NHS backlog, but eyes are on Diane Abbott after she was reportedly blocked from standing in her seat for Labour.
Odds on who will become the next Prime Minister currently favour Starmer, and the polls tell the story of a massive Labour majority.
Keep up to date with the 2024 general election in our extensive coverage, on everything from the main parties’ pledges on policies like immigration and pensions to the seats still without a candidate.
“I’d say digital is reflecting the real inequalities that exist within the parties,” said Dommett. “What’s notable is that [Labour and the Tories] are able to create more content, across more platforms, than their smaller counterparts.” That leads to an inequality between the haves and the have nots, as smaller parties struggle to post to all platforms equally – even before considering the cash outlay.
However, all that money may be for naught. One thing that all candidates – whatever their stripes – ought to remember is that social media audiences cherish authenticity above all else.
Which is why candidates might want a little less of Ed Davey theatrically falling off a paddleboard, in a setup that was about as convincing as a shop selling trebuchets and custard pieces, and a little more of Keir Cozens’ slick but personable social media videos, showing his personality, about which one commenter quipped he was speaking “fluent human”.
Other things I’ve written recently
On the topic of #gennylec, I’ve also written a piece about the frivolity that that day of madness when it was announced we’d all be going to the polls created, and how it evoked a past era of social media. And in a less entertaining aside, I had a moan about how the train network has gone to pot – so much so that I have taken to flying around the country instead.
Science link of the week
This list of 100 tips and tricks to supercharge your social life from New Scientist manages to avoid the gossipy and anecdote and rely on real, scientific evidence. Give it a read – and let me know if you want a friend.
This is i‘s science and tech newsletter, a subscriber-only newsletter from i. If you’d like to get this direct to your inbox, every single week, you can sign up here.
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