Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko will view any presence of Russia’s Wagner mercenaries on his territory as “extremely undesirable and dangerous” to his regime, according to a senior opposition figure and former military commander.
Valery Sakhashchyk, the defence and security spokesman for the exiled Belarusian government-in-waiting, told i he believes that his country’s military is overwhelmingly opposed to the presence in Belarus of Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin and the open invitation from the Lukashenko regime to thousands of his paramilitaries following their failed insurrection against Moscow.
Mr Sakhashchyk, who founded the elite Belarusian 38th Airborne Brigade and is said to retain considerable loyalty within his country’s armed forces, said that while Lukashenko has publicly sought to take credit for brokering a deal which saw Prigozhin call off his rebellion, the autocrat will be particularly wary of the armed group.
While there is scant evidence of Wagner fighters relocating from the war in Ukraine, including apparent preparations at a disused Belarusian military base, Poland this weekend bolstered its security presence at its border with Belarus. A senior security official said the move was made in the belief that Wagner will engage in an as yet-unspecified “mission” from Belarusian territory.
Mr Sakhashchyk said Lukashenko, who in 2020 ordered the arrest of more than 30 Wagner employees after claiming they had been sent to destabilise Belarus ahead of rigged presidential elections, has a long record of being wary of any security forces which do not answer to him personally.
The opposition figure said Lukashenko, regarded as an increasingly slavish ally to Putin, had been forced to go against his instincts by agreeing to host Prigozhin and Wagner forces as part of the deal struck between the armed rebels and Vladimir Putin.
Mr Sakhashchyk said: “The negotiations were an excellent opportunity for Lukashenko to show himself in front of everyone as the saviour of Russia.
“[But] Lukashenko is trembling with fear of any forces outside his control on his territory, especially the military. For both Lukashenko and the Belarusian military the presence of the Wagner group would be extremely undesirable and dangerous.”
The Belarusian strongman, who jailed thousands of his compatriots in a crackdown after the 2020 election, has been publicly supportive of Wagner and used his country’s national day this weekend to say he had invited Prigozhin’s troops, a large proportion of whom are convicts recruited from Russian prisons, to train his military and “pass on combat experience” gained in Ukraine. The paramilitary force was deeply involved in the attritional battle for Bakhmut and is said to have lost as many as 20,000 men in the fighting.
But Mr Sakhaschyk, who is a member of the cabinet of Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, said he believed the country’s military wanted nothing to do with Wagner. He said: “The vast majority of the Belarusian military have a negative view of the Wagner Group. According to our estimates, only about five per cent approve of their actions.”
The precise details of the deal struck between Prigozhin, a convicted criminal who was at one time head of a catering firm supplying the Kremlin and was previously styled as “Putin’s chef”, and his former boss remains unclear. Wagner appears to be continuing to recruit in Russia but a network of media outlets that answered to Prigozhin has now been taken off the air waves.
Prigozhin’s whereabouts also remain a mystery. He apparently arrived in the Belarusian capital of Minsk last week for talks with Lukashenko after two of his private planes arrived at a military airfield. The jets then returned to Russia.
Concern remains high in the West that Wagner will continue to be used as an active tool of Russia’s expansionist foreign policy and could be used to either attack Ukraine from its north or carry out destabilising operations such as organising mass migrant crossings into Poland or Lithuania.
Stanislaw Zaryn, Poland’s deputy minister co-ordinator of special services, said border security was being tightened as a direct result of the Belarusian deal with Wagner. He said: “We assume the Wagners aren’t going to Belarus to recuperate, but to carry out a mission. This mission could be aimed at Poland, but also against Lithuania or Ukraine.”
