When Iran agreed in July 2015 to a long-term deal to limit its nuclear programme with a group of world powers, it was initially hailed as a game-changer. The agreement promised clear restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief, setting Tehran on a path toward normalising relations with the West.
Nine years later, these hopes have been dashed. The agreement is hanging by a thread, while Iran has escalated conflicts with Israel and provided weapons for Russia’s use against Ukraine. Friday’s talks in Geneva between Iran and European powers – Britain, France, and Germany – on reviving the deal represent a potentially decisive moment for containing Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.
Iran’s uranium enrichment has reached alarming levels: 60 percent purity, significantly beyond the limits set by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) also known as the Iran nuclear deal and nearing weapons-grade material.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reports that Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile far exceeds the JCPOA cap, fueling fears of nuclear weapon development. These concerns are magnified by regional instability, including conflicts in Gaza, escalating tensions between Israel and neighbouring countries, and the influence of US foreign policy.
The 2015 nuclear deal faces another challenge: former US president Donald Trump, who has expressed strong opposition to it.
The JCPOA was signed after years of tension over Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons development by Iran, Britain, the US, China, France, Germany, and Russia. However, in 2018, during Trump’s first presidential term, he pulled the US out, declaring, “This was a horrible one-sided deal that should have never, ever been made”.
His main criticism was that the agreement failed to curb Iran’s sponsorship of terrorism in the Middle East, notably through groups like Hamas and Hezbollah.
Although the deal remained in place after the US’s withdrawal, President Joe Biden’s administration has not succeeded in reviving meaningful détente between Tehran and Washington.
Now, less than two months before his potential return to the White House, Trump has vowed to take an even tougher stance on Iran. His previous “maximum pressure” strategy involved severe sanctions that crippled Iran’s economy and the assassination of top Iranian general Qasem Soleimani, which, in turn, spurred advancements in Iran’s nuclear programme.
European negotiators face the daunting task of reviving diplomacy in an atmosphere of mistrust and hard-line stances, complicated further by fears that Trump’s re-election could lead to military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities.
The 2015 deal formally expires in October 2025, and the Geneva talks may represent the last opportunity to find a diplomatic solution to prevent a major escalation between Iran and the West.
Iran’s delegation is led by deputy foreign minister and senior nuclear negotiator Majid Takhteravanchi. His discussions with British, French, and German negotiators, collectively known as the E3, follow a meeting with the EU co-ordinator on Thursday night.
The E3, adopting a more assertive stance since 2015, recently pushed through an IAEA resolution urging Iran to urgently improve co-operation and demanding a comprehensive report on its growing stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Meanwhile, Iran has announced the activation of “new advanced centrifuges”.
The Middle East’s broader crises highlight the urgency of these talks. Ongoing conflicts in Gaza and tensions across Lebanon and Syria have created a volatile environment where any failure in negotiations could further destabilise the region.
A collapse in Geneva could embolden Iran to expand its nuclear programme unchecked, heighten regional arms races, and provoke more aggressive actions from Israel and the US.
These discussions represent a last-ditch effort to preserve diplomatic avenues before Trump’s potential return to power, which could signal a shift toward unilateralism in US foreign policy. European countries aim to find a middle ground to constrain Iran’s nuclear ambitions while maintaining channels for future negotiations. However, the lack of trust and Iran’s demands for economic relief in exchange for nuclear compliance remain formidable obstacles.
In this context, the Geneva talks are not just about preventing nuclear proliferation. They serve as a litmus test for multilateral diplomacy in an increasingly polarised and unpredictable international landscape.
