How will Israel respond after Hezbollah attack?

Many countries, including France, the US and the UK, are urging their citizens to leave Lebanon without delay amid fears of a full-scale war.

In the latest escalation, Hezbollah launched dozens of rockets from southern Lebanon into Israel last night.

The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) claimed that the majority of the roughly 30 projectiles fired were intercepted by its aerial defence system, known as the “Iron Dome“, and that no one was injured in the strikes.

Israeli forces say they responded by striking Hezbollah infrastructure used in the attack, in the area of Marjaayoun in southern Lebanon.

Tensions have been higher than usual at the Israel-Lebanon border since the start of the war in Gaza, but they have kicked into overdrive during the past week.

Israel hit Hezbollah targets with aerial strikes after 12 children and young adults were killed in a rocket strike on a football pitch last Saturday in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

One of the strikes led to the killing of a key Hezbollah leader, Fuad Shukur, in the capital Beirut earlier this week. Iran-allied Hezbollah had promised retaliation after the assassination.

The strike was followed by the killing of Hamas’s political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in the Iranian capital Tehran, alleged to have been carried out by Israel. Iran has vowed to avenge the high-profile assassination of its ally.

“Tensions are high, and the situation could deteriorate rapidly,” said Foreign Secretary David Lammy said in a statement. “While we are working round the clock to strengthen our consular presence in Lebanon, my message to British nationals there is clear – leave now.”

Why did Hezbollah launch the strike?

Hezbollah claims its latest attack was carried out to help the Palestinian people “in support of their valiant and honourable resistance”.

In an official statement, the militant group, which also functions as a political party with parliamentary presence, claimed the attack was in retaliation to Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon villages of Kafrkila and Deir Siryan, which injured civilians.

Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, said conflict with Israel had entered “a new phase” following last week’s back-to-back assassinations.

In a televised address at the Beirut funeral of Hezbollah leader Shukur earlier this week, Nasrallah said the enemy, presumed to be Israel, had crossed “red lines”.

What has Israel said following the attack?

Israel has not yet given a detailed response of how it plans to retaliate to last night’s attack. However, the IDF has reiterated a general message of strength following the incident.

The IDF said in an official statement: “We struck in Beirut and we are striking in Gaza, and we will be very strong in defence, and then we will strike very strongly.”

Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s Prime Minister, had previously promised revenge on Hezbollah following the attack on Golan Heights last week.

“The state of Israel will not and cannot overlook this,” he said in a meeting with the local Druze community, whose members were the victims of the attack. “Our response will come, and it will be severe.”

Read Next

square IRAN

Iran faces its hardest choice as 'Axis of Resistance' falters

Read More

How could Israel respond?

The Israeli security cabinet held a meeting last Sunday to deliberate on the scope of its response to the Hezbollah attack in Golan Heights.

The IDF would like to pursue a more aggressive course of action than it has done so previously, but would also like to stop at the prospect of all-out war.

“It is clear that both sides are going to take one step further than they have taken so far but it isn’t clear whether they can avoid falling into the abyss,” said one Israeli official.

Israel may give in to international pressure to moderate its response to aggression from Hezbollah.

The Biden administration warned Israel if it hits targets in Beirut, the “situation would likely spiral out of control”, according to US officials cited in a report by Axios.

Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported that one potential Israeli plan is for a few “intense days of combat”, which would be followed by a subsequent de-escalation.

Michael Young, senior editor at the Carnegie Middle East Centre based in Beirut, told i last week he believed both sides would prefer to avoid war.

“Both Israel and Hezbollah have been careful not to escalate into an all-out war for a variety of reasons, and I don’t think the Israelis are going to use this as the excuse,” he said. “Partly because they are not that ready for a major war at this point.

The IDF has generally taken a tit-for-tat approach to dealing with Hezbollah strikes on its territory.

When a Hezbollah drone strike killed an Israeli soldier in early July and injured 10 more, Israel responded with a series of drone strikes of its own.

In January, an Israeli airstrike in south Lebanon killed a senior Hezbollah leader in retaliation to an attack on an Israeli military base in Mount Meron, in north Israel, several days earlier.

The UN estimates around 95,000 Lebanese civilians have been displaced thus far by skirmishes. The Lebanese Ministry of Public Health estimates the total number of Lebanese deaths related to fighting with Israel at 414 since 8 October.