Belarus raised alarms in Kyiv this week with an announcement of a joint military grouping with Russia that could see troops stationed on Ukraine’s northern border, but defence analysts say it won’t make a difference on the battlefields.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko claimed Ukraine is “planning strikes on the territory of Belarus” as justification for the move, repeating an unsubstantiated assertion made earlier in the war to justify his country’s role in facilitating the Russian invasion through the use of Belarusian territory.
Experts, however, are sceptical that the Belarusian army could play a meaningful role in Russia’s invasion.
“There might be 7,000 to 8,000 combat-ready troops that Lukashenko can give to Russia, which is not going to change the course of the war,” says Belarusian journalist and researcher Hanna Liubakova of the Atlantic Council.
The dictator’s announcement could be intended as a “bluff” to distract Ukraine from other fronts, said Ms Liubakova.
Inflating the threat from Ukraine could also be an assertion of independence by Mr Lukashenko to avoid the impression that Belarus is being dictated to by Moscow, she added
Russia is mobilising assets in response to battlefield setbacks and the Kerch Bridge bombing, and some Belarusians fear the Kremlin will exert greater control over its junior partner.
“Now real, military, hard Russian occupation of Belarus starts,” said Dr Ales Herasimenka, a political communications researcher at the University of Oxford.
There could be political risk for the Belarusian regime in drawing the country further into the war.
Public protests are largely banned in Belarus and anti-war saboteurs are facing the death penalty. But most of the public are against sending troops to Ukraine, according to surveys, and doing so could fuel opposition.
Opposition politicians outside the country are using this moment to rally support, such as former presidential candidate, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya.
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“All involved in Russia’s attack from Belarus must be held accountable,” she said on Tuesday.
Ms Tsikhanouskaya’s senior advisor Franak Viacorka told i: “Putin and Lukashenko’s emotional reactions are a sign they are desperate.
“Sending troops would make the situation very unpredictable. We are strengthening our structures to be in good shape when the opportunities appear.”
“There is no support for this war in Belarus so there will be defections and cracks in the system.”
International leaders warned Minsk not to escalate its involvement with the EU and threatened new sanctions.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky called for international observers to be stationed on the border to guard against any threat.
“Russia is trying to directly draw Belarus into this war, playing a provocation that we are allegedly preparing an attack on this country,” said Mr Zelensky at the G7 summit on Tuesday.
“Indirectly, it has already involved them. And now it wants to involve them directly.”
