The Russian navy is under pressure from attacks by the Ukrainian military in the Black Sea and the uncertain future of its base off the Syrian coast, but it may be able to find some respite with the help of Libya.
Huge explosions were reported in Syria in the Tartus region where a Russian naval port is based, following Israeli air strikes in the area targeting military sites of the former Syrian government. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a UK-based monitoring group, the strikes overnight on Monday pounded defence units and “surface-to-surface missile depots”.
The Israeli military has not commented on the strikes, but has previously said it wanted to destroy the country’s military capability following the fall of president Bashar al-Assad, to prevent it from falling into the hands of hostile actors.
The status of the Tartus naval base, which has long served as a key logistical support point for the Russian navy in the Mediterranean, is unclear. Russian warships abandoned Tartus last week, according to satellite imagery, while Kremlin officials are reportedly holding talks with the Syrian opposition to retain the base.
This has left Russia’s Mediterranean flotilla in limbo. The Tartus base is Russia’s sole resupply and maintenance hub in the Mediterranean. Without it, the Russian navy would face a humiliatingly long journey to return to bases in Russia. The closure of the Turkish Straits to Russian warships also complicates matters, as they cannot be relocated to the Black Sea.
“If – and it is a big if – the Russians were forced to scale back their forces and bases in Syria, they’d lose not only an important foothold in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East but also a key logistical hub supporting military power projection into North and Sub-Saharan Africa,” said James Black, assistant director of the defence and security research group at Rand Europe.
One option is for Russia to head to Libya, where it has reportedly offered air defence systems and pilot training to Tripoli in exchange for a base in the port of Tobruk, according to a Bloomberg report last year, citing sources familiar with the matter.
Analysts say that in April and May this year, Russia had transported thousands of tons of supplies from Tartus to Tobruk, and that a base in Libya would put most of central and southern Europe within range of Russian naval vessels with Kalibr cruise missile systems.
On Sunday, satellite images suggested Russia was strengthening its military presence in Libya as it evacuates equipment from bases in Syria. Images from Planet Labs showed transporter planes arriving with cargo at the Al Jufra Airbase in central Libya, while they have also been observed withdrawing assets from two bases in Syria.
“Tobruk in Libya is an option but it does not offer the same degree of stability as Tartus under the Assad regime,” said Basil Germond, professor of international security at Lancaster University.
“Also, it is closer to the African theatres where Russian troops operate but further away from Russia in terms of air transport to and from the base, and also closer to main Nato bases.”
Adding to Russia’s problems is damage to two Russian oil tankers that were caught in a storm in the Kerch Strait between mainland Russia and occupied Crimea. According to Russian officials, the incident has led to an oil spill and the death of one crew member, with some reports suggesting one of the vessels had sunk.
It came as the Ukrainian navy reported that no Russian warships were deployed on combat duty in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov as of Monday. Professor Germond said reports of this kind are not new, as it could simply mean Russian warships are docked in Novorossiysk in Russia or other bases further away from Ukraine for the time being.
From Novorossiysk, Russia is still able to “regularly sail ships in the eastern part of the Black Sea that do shoot missiles into Ukraine”, said Simon Schlegel, senior Ukraine analyst at the International Crisis Group.
Ukraine has, nevertheless, been able to threaten and damage the Russian Black Sea Fleet to such an extent that Russia no longer controls the Black Sea and cannot safely operate from Sevastopol in Crimea, argued Professor Germond.
“Russia was already at its weakest in naval terms, but the fall of Assad is putting even more pressure on Moscow’s limited naval projection capabilities,” he added.
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