Russia’s military bases in Syria were a huge asset for the Kremlin’s activities in the Middle East and Africa, but now they present a major problem for Moscow.
Caught by surprise by president Bashar al-Assad’s downfall, whose regime it has been bolstering with military support since 2015, Russia must contend with potentially losing access to its bases and weaponry in the country which has been overtaken by opposition forces.
That’s unless it can salvage them through negotiations with the Syrian rebels that toppled the Assad government or request the assistance of Turkey. This would be particularly crucial for its Tartus naval base on Syria’s Mediterranean coast, its prized reward for helping the Assad regime, which has played a key role in Russia’s projection of military power in the region.
Tartus, Russia’s only port outside of the former Soviet Union, houses five naval ships and a submarine, including two Admiral Gorshkov-class frigates, an Admiral Grigorivich-class frigate and an improved Kilo-class attack boat.
According to satellite imagery, the vessels were visible at the port last Thursday and Friday but were gone in images captured Monday. Media reports suggest the ships have travelled back and forth in the past week but have remained away from the base as of Tuesday.
The satellite images show two of the frigates moored about eight miles north-west of Tartus, but it is unclear how long they will be loitering offshore, or what has happened to the other vessels.
Tartus provides the Russians with access to a “warm water” port – which is navigable year-round and does not freeze over, unlike others in northern Russia – and it is their sole resupply and maintenance hub in the Mediterranean.
It has also been used as a base for Russia’s naval drills in the Mediterranean that have sometimes mirrored those conducted by Nato in the same sea, the objective of which is to confront – or assess – the extent of Western sea power in the region.
Losing access to this port will be disastrous for Russia, said Basil Germond, professor of international security at Lancaster University, not least because of the complications presented by Turkey’s decision to close the Turkish Straits to Russian warships because of the war in Ukraine.
The Montreux Convention of 1936 gives Turkey control over the water route between the Black Sea – home to a major Russian naval force – and the Mediterranean Sea. If Russia loses access to Tartus, any ships involved in exercises in the Mediterranean would have an incredibly long journey back to bases in Russia.
Russian officials have indicated they are in talks with Turkey about the developments in Syria, but their options for a way forward for its naval base might be limited, said Professor Germond.
“There is no reason to think that Ankara would modify its strict application of the Montreux Convention and its strict policy regarding the closure of the Turkish Straits,” he said.
“This is why there is only three options for these naval assets – negotiating an agreement with the new rulers in Syria to keep the base (but with no guarantee it would be really safe and secure enough and sustainable in the mid to long term); finding another regional base, for example, in Libya (but options are limited and not ideal); [or] starting a trip back to the Baltic Sea or Northern fleet.
“None of these options look good for Moscow.”
Russia has reportedly asked Turkey to help evacuate its ground troops from Syria, which numbers somewhere between an estimated 6,000 and 7,000. The plan involves moving the troops to territory controlled by Turkish-backed groups in Syria before they are flown to Russia, according to CNN Turk’s correspondent in Ankara, although the source of the claim is unclear.
The request, however, does not apparently extend to Russia’s Tartus port or its Hmeimim air base near the city of Latakia.
Russia uses the Hmeimim facility as a staging post to shuttle its military contractors in and out of Africa, notably in Libya, the Central African Republic and Sudan, and to transport weapons and equipment to the continent.
“Without those capacities, the routes will have to be adjusted… basically, it’s going to be more complicated and Russian resources for Africa are going to be diminished,” said Anton Barbashin, editorial director of Riddle, an online publication on Russian affairs.
Russia is said to have pulled a number of troops from Syria to be redeployed to Ukraine after Moscow began its invasion of the country in 2022. Analysts believe Russia may negotiate with Turkey for a corridor to move its military equipment from Syria – mainly its aircraft and helicopters – to reinforce its forces in Ukraine.
Among the equipment based at Hmeimim are S-400 air defence systems, which can strike targets in an arc that takes in much of Israel. Russia has also “prepared to deploy Iskander-M short range ballistic missile systems” at the base, according to a 2020 report by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank.
“Russia’s uttermost priority is the war in Ukraine, the events in Syria will only reinforce this fact,” said Professor Germond.
“Russia has a large amount of resources to spare but not indefinite, especially when it comes to assets that are both high-tech and expansive, such as air defence systems. So, anything valuable that can be salvaged [from Hmeimim] will be.”
'President Musk' is flexing his muscles and revealing how weak Trump is