Once the result of the US election was clear, European leaders swiftly extended their congratulations to president-elect Donald Trump, as tradition dictates.
Messages from French president Emmanuel Macron, German chancellor Olaf Scholz, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte underscored the historic transatlantic partnership built over generations, the enduring bonds of friendship, and a shared commitment to freedom and democracy.
These messages carried pointed undertones. During Trump’s first term as president, he showed little regard for these shared values. He openly criticised the European Union as “a foe” on trade and threatened blanket tariffs of up to 20 per cent on European imports. He has also expressed disdain for Nato and even suggested withdrawing from the alliance. Recently, he vowed to cut funding to Ukraine and pressure Kyiv to seek peace with Russia.
Officials say the priority now is to secure stability and prepare for a challenging four years. Unlike eight years ago, the EU and Nato are better prepared, with contingency plans to “Trump-proof” themselves. Ms Von der Leyen even established a small in-house war room ahead of the election, focused on trade and security issues.
“It may be a shock, but it’s not a surprise,” says Ian Lesser, head of the Brussels office of the German Marshall Fund of the United States think-tank. “It might concentrate minds on the long-term structural issues Europe faces, both in economic competitiveness and defence.”
Trump’s re-election may accelerate calls for European strategic autonomy. However, there is concern that such efforts may not fully stave off potential turmoil. “We can’t prepare for everything,” said one senior EU official. “He is unpredictable and implacable. It could be very bad.”
An immediate priority will be offsetting a potential reduction in US aid to Ukraine if Trump cuts off the flow of weapons Kyiv depends on. European allies contribute more financially to Ukraine than the US but will struggle to replace the arms and capabilities that Washington provides. Kyiv’s European supporters are also considering giving Nato a greater role in co-ordinating weapon supplies and training Ukrainians, so the US has less direct control over these aspects.
This aligns with broader support for Nato. Even if Trump were to withdraw the US from Nato — a decision requiring Senate approval under recent legislation — he could undermine the credibility of the US security guarantee simply by casting doubt on whether he would defend alliance members under attack.
One of Trump’s long-standing grievances, low defence spending by Nato’s European members, is already being addressed. In July, 23 of Nato’s 32 members met the alliance’s target of spending at least two per cent of their GDP on defence — up from just 10 countries last year and three in 2014.
On trade, Goldman Sachs analysts have suggested that the euro could drop by as much as 10 per cent against the dollar if the new administration enacts its broad tariff plans. In response, the EU is preparing to offer Trump a swift deal to boost US imports into the bloc as a way to prevent escalation into a full-blown trade war. However, while EU officials are hopeful, they are also ready to implement retaliatory measures if necessary, with a list of US sectors under consideration.
Despite these challenges, some Europeans see a second Trump presidency as a potential catalyst for reform within the EU. For years, Europe has struggled to make meaningful strides in defence and economic autonomy, and Trump’s return could be a spur for bold reforms. EU Council president Charles Michel has emphasised the importance of Europe “taking its destiny into its own hands”, advocating for greater self-reliance.
For now, European leaders are putting on a diplomatic front and hoping to keep lines of communication open with the incoming Trump administration. They are meeting today in Budapest for a summit of the European Political Community (EPC), projecting a united front in their willingness to work with Trump. Yet, behind the scenes, they are bracing for the challenges ahead.
