Ukrainian officials have accused Russia of using an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) for the first time in the war, which, if confirmed, would be a deliberate and major escalation in the conflict and a signal to Kyiv’s allies.
But Western officials and defence experts have questioned whether Russia had used an ICBM, which are designed to deliver long-distance nuclear strikes.
The Ukrainian air force said Russia had fired an ICBM at the city of Dnipro in central Ukraine on Thursday, without specifying which type. It claimed that the missile was launched more than 600 miles away from Russia’s Astrakhan region, which borders the Caspian Sea.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky said the missile used “matches the speed and altitude” of an ICBM, and an expert investigation is under way. Russia has refused to comment on the report.
Footage shared online allegedly of the dawn attack appeared to show multiple bright flashes of light travelling vertically to the ground.
Open source intelligence sleuths suggested the missile pattern could be from “re-entry vehicles”, which are warheads that separate from the missile. Longer range ballistic missiles, such as ICBMs, have multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRV) that allow operators to increase the amount of destructive power of each missile.
Ukrainian media, citing anonymous officials, claimed a RS-26 Rubezh missile was used in the attack targeting businesses and critical infrastructure, although this has not been confirmed by the Russian or Ukrainian governments.
The Rubezh missile is designed for carrying nuclear warheads and is classified as an ICBM under the New Start treaty between the US and Russia which limits the use of American and Russian nuclear warheads.
According to the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, the Rubezh is estimated to be 12 metres long, can carry an 800kg nuclear warhead and has a range of between 2,000km and 5,800km (about 1,200 miles to 3,600 miles).
It can also fall into the category of an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) when used at ranges below 5,500km (about 3,400 miles).
Timothy Wright, a research associate at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), said the alleged footage of the attack appears to show characteristics of an ICBM.
“What we can see in video footage is what appears to be six different clusters of munitions striking a target… Each cluster appears to consist of a number of submunitions (up to six),” he told i.
But he cautioned that there were several reasons why he felt the missile might not be a Rubezh.
He noted that the weapon has not formally entered service after testing in the 2010s, therefore it would mean “Russia has kept prototypes in storage for around a decade, which might be unlikely”.
“Secondly, because the missile’s testing regime was fairly short, Russia would probably not have a lot of confidence the missile would work as planned, especially as some tests of the missile tests ended in failure,” Wright added.
“Third, if the purpose was to destroy the target, using Rubezh is probably not the cheapest or most effective way to do this given that Russia has a variety of other systems it could use against the target.”
Western officials appear to share those doubts. One source told ABC News that the Dnipro attack did not appear to be an ICBM, while another disputed the claim in a report by NBC News.
The UK Prime Minister’s official spokesman said the reports were “deeply concerning”.
“If true, clearly this would be another example of grave, reckless and escalatory behaviour from Russia and only serves to strengthen our resolve,” the spokesman said.
The Ukrainian air force said eight other missiles were launched in the attack on Dnipro, and that the Ukrainian military shot down six of them.
Two people were wounded in the attack and an industrial facility was damaged, according to local officials.
The attack followed news of Ukraine launching US-supplied ATACMS and British Storm Shadow long-range missiles at targets in Russia this week.
The Russian defence ministry claimed on Thursday that its air defence systems shot down two Storm Shadow missiles, six American HIMARS rockets and 67 drones on Thursday, without saying when or where this happened or what the weapons were targeting.
James Bosbotinis, a defence and international affairs expert, said the use of an IRBM or ICBM would constitute a significant escalation, and is “likely intended principally as a message to Ukraine’s Western allies particularly with regard to the use of ATACMS and Storm Shadow against targets in Russia”.
He told i: “It will be critical that Western support for Ukraine does not buckle in the face of such Russian provocations. Moscow cannot be seen to succeed with the use of ballistic missile coercion.
“Moreover, the use of such weapons raises the issue of discrimination, that is, how does one know if the missile is armed with a conventional or nuclear warhead – and that entails obvious escalation risks.”
