Russian forces are making advances in Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine, according to military sources on both sides and independent conflict monitors, which could hand Moscow its most significant battlefield achievement in months.
Russian troops reached the south of the city in January after months of fierce fighting and have since made gains in northern districts, with some analysts warning that Ukrainian defenders were at risk of being encircled.
“The enemy increases pressure on Avdiivka from the north,” the Ukrainian military outlet Deep State posted on messaging app Telegram yesterday. “[Russia] continues to conduct assault operations in the north of the city…As of now, the enemy has occupied about 18 per cent of the city and continues to press.”
On Tuesday, the head of the military administration in Avdiivka, Vitaly Barabash, warned that conditions were deteriorating in the city.
“If we said a few weeks ago that it was difficult, but controllable, now it is very difficult, and we can even say that in some places the situation is critical,” he said on Ukrainian TV.
Russia is conducting dozens of air strikes on the city each day, he said.
Kyiv has not officially acknowledged that Russia has breached the city. Ukrainian troops at the front say that they are inflicting heavy casualties on the enemy but struggling to slow the Russian advance.
“Every day there are new fresh forces, regardless of the weather, regardless of anything – of losses,” a member of Ukraine’s 47th Separate Mechanised Brigade told Radio Liberty. “But no matter what, they keep crawling – literally over the bodies of their own.”
Open-source intelligence analysts corroborated Russian advances and suggested that Ukraine’s positions in the city were at risk.
“[The] Russian army continues to advance though the urban area,” posted the conflict monitor Suriyak. “The situation of the Ukrainian forces in Avdiivka is precarious as only one supply line remains which is under direct fire control of the Russian artillery”.
The Ukrainian news outlet Euromaidan Press reported that the latest Russian advances had left Ukrainian forces at risk of being cut off and encircled.
Russian state media broadcast claimed this week that troops were operating inside Avdiivka, which has been contested since Russian incursions in 2014. Russian military blogger channel Rybar, which has close links to the Kremlin, said that Moscow’s forces “continue to drive into residential neighbourhoods of Avdiivka”.
If Russia was to capture the city it would be the most notable advance since at least last May, when a Wagner-led assault succeeded in capturing the devastated city of Bakhmut after months of bloody battles.
Avdiivka could prove a more meaningful capture, some analysts believe, as it could enable further advances towards the strategic cities of Kramatorsk.
Ukrainian forces claim they are being forced to ration shells due to ammunition shortages, an issue that has become more acute as the Biden adminstration struggles to pass a new support bill.
Russia has also made reported gains elsewhere on the front, with a breakthrough in the town of Novomykhailivka, eastern Ukraine, where Ukrainian soldiers have also complained of a lack of ammunition.
