IN WASHINGTON DC – With less than three weeks to go until election day in the United States, President Joe Biden has finally drawn a line in the sand for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
It came in the form of Monday’s letter, jointly authored by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin. Over four tightly written pages, it offers a searing indictment of Israel’s conduct towards civilians, relief workers and detainees in Gaza, and lifts the lid on what American policymakers have, up until now, privately concluded about Netanyahu’s conduct.
Characterising the situation in Gaza as “increasingly dire”, Blinken and Austin warn the Israeli government that it has 30 days to adopt a series of “concrete measures” to improve humanitarian access to the territory, allowing crucial supplies of food, water, medicine to reach a population that the United States says is now at risk of “lethal contagion”.
“Failure to demonstrate a sustained commitment to implementing and maintaining these measures”, write Blinken and Austin, “may have implications for US policy”, a reference to the possibility that Biden could suspend further weapons shipments to Israel if Netanyahu fails to adhere to America’s requirements.
There are a lot of conditionals contained in the letter’s threat, coming at a time when Biden defines his support of Israel’s right to self-defence as “ironclad”.
The letter notably coincides with Vice-President Kamala Harris’s struggle to secure vital votes from Arab Americans, particularly in the battleground state of Michigan. Their fury over the Biden-Harris administration’s handling of the crisis in Gaza led the Arab American Political Action Committee this week to refuse to endorse either Harris or Trump – the first time the Michigan-based group has withheld a presidential endorsement since its founding 20 years ago.
The 30-day window for Israel to meet the Biden administration’s demands will expire after America’s election day. Critics of the Blinken/Austin letter claim that many of its requirements could be implemented immediately, and question why – in the midst of an “accelerated deterioration” of the situation in Gaza – the deadline for Israel to implement change is so generous.
But the letter also contains no specifics about what reprisals the United States will take if its demands are simply ignored. With a singular exception in May, the White House has rejected calls for the US to halt weapons supplies to Israel, with Biden indicating that the country’s survival is at stake and that its military and diplomatic support for Netanyahu’s war cabinet is “unconditional”.
It is within Biden’s power dramatically to limit Netanyahu’s military adventurism. The United States manufactures more than 70 per cent of the components used in Israel’s “Iron Dome” missile shield, and has regularly been providing additional supplies as the system’s interceptors are used to destroy incoming rockets from Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and – earlier this month – Iran.
Last year, 69 per cent of Israel’s arms imports came from American sources, including F-35 and F-15 fighter jets and the 2,000-pound bunker-busting bombs used to kill Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut last month. No other country provides Israel with a greater volume of armaments, nor weapons systems that are more technologically advanced.
But while Israel’s dependence on US military supplies theoretically provides the American president with unique leverage over Tel Aviv, politically there is no will for Biden to place Netanyahu over a barrel. On Capitol Hill, support for Israel’s right to defend itself is a political touchstone for the majority of elected representatives from both major parties.
Members of Congress who have criticised Netanyahu’s handling of the war have found themselves targeted by AIPAC, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, which lavishes millions of dollars on election candidates who remain fully supportive of Israel. On its website, AIPAC even boasts of its ability to be the kingmaker in House and Senate races where pro-Palestinian candidates have faulted the humanitarian situation in Gaza and the scale of the civilian death toll there.
Harris is walking a tight-rope, communicating to recalcitrant Arab-American voters that she will “not be silent” in the face of mounting civilian casualties, but failing to explain precisely how her policies towards the region will differ from those implemented by Biden. The latest threat to suspend some weapons shipments is considered performative by some observers who suspect the 30-day window is politically designed to carry Harris across the US election’s finishing line, without taking any concrete steps before the last vote is cast.
But the letter by Blinken and Austin may also be a sword of Damocles that now hangs over the White House. The details it contains, particularly with regard to reports of Israeli abuse of detainees, may make it impossible in the future for top US officials to deny knowledge of events that eventually come under investigation. In that regard, the White House has now crossed a Rubicon, making it clear that it knows what is going on in Gaza, even if its threats to take reprisals next month amount to nothing.
