The lightning speed with which rebels stormed through Syria – wiping out the Assad dynasty after half a century – shocked big regional and global powers. The Middle East is once again in flux. This creates new opportunities but also dangers.
Turkey, Israel, the US, Russia and Iran are all now scrabbling to protect their interests or seek advantage amid the turmoil.
Plenty of media coverage declares the country’s 13-year civil war to be “over” – a mistake repeated by even The New York Times. Cursory knowledge of Syria’s
history offers pause for thought.
The rebels insist they have renounced jihadism and will hand power to technocrats. They have a chance to show that they will protect Syria’s delicate mix of religious groups. Yet some experts predict a period of chaos. The transition is unlikely to be smooth. Western governments remain haunted by their failures in Iraq, where they repeatedly botched attempts to impose coalition governments.
Syria is a hub between Europe and the Middle East. With Moscow and Tehran humiliated, Turkey and Israel are now conducting military operations inside Syria, exploiting the power vacuum to press home their own agenda. Israel wants to stop Iran rebuilding its Hezbollah supply lines. Turkey’s president Erdogan is determined to beat back Kurdish forces and to send home three million Syrian refugees.
From the Kremlin to the Pentagon, no one knows how the dust will settle. But the balance of power in the Middle East looks likely to shift once again, in ways that were unimaginable just seven days ago.
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