The decision by President Joe Biden to permit Ukraine to use US-supplied missiles to strike inside Russia is another shift in the escalatory spiral in which the US and Nato become more and more directly engaged in the war in order to prevent a Ukrainian military collapse.
The missiles will at first be used against Russian forces, whose numbers are estimated to be 50,000 soldiers including 10,0000 North Koreans, which are concentrating for a counter-attack against the Ukrainian-held Kursk enclave in western Russia.
The Kremlin says that US permission for the missiles to be fired into Russia adds “fuel to the fire”. Nevertheless, Russia has no reason to resort to direct retaliatory military action against Nato states, still less the use of nuclear weapons. The war is going in Russia’s favour militarily, since it is slowly advancing, and politically, following the election victory of Donald Trump.
Permitting the Ukrainians to use the Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) with a range of 190 miles is not going to make a decisive impact on the military balance between Ukraine and Russia. It is being portrayed by the Biden administration as a response to a Russian escalation of the conflict when it deployed North Korean ground troops.
As regards the military effect of the missiles, Russia is reported to have moved its most vulnerable high-value targets, such as aircraft and ammunition dumps further east and out of range of the missiles. Given that Russia has the capability to shoot down some of the missiles, much will depend on the number of missiles provided.
The US action has also enabled the UK and France to allow Ukraine to use their Storm Shadow and Scalp missiles. Biden’s reversal of his previous decision not to allow the use of the missiles may also be designed to support Ukrainian morale in the aftermath of the presidential election victory of Donald Trump on 5 November.
The president-elect has repeatedly promised to bring the Ukraine war to an end immediately and is likely to be much more open to a compromise peace with President Vladimir Putin. Trump’s choice of Pete Hegseth as his Defence Secretary and Tulsi Gabbard as director of National Intelligence shocked the Pentagon and guarantees division within the US military establishment after Trump takes office in January. Constant turmoil was the norm during the last Trump administration when he tried to withdraw US bases from Iraq and Syria, contrary to the wishes of many US generals.
Washington’s decision finally to allow Ukraine to use the ATACMS inside Russia after much prevarication is similar to its grudging supply of Abrams heavy tanks – with the UK suppling Challenger 2 and Germany Leopard 2 tanks – in 2023. Supposedly these were going to help tip the military balance towards Kyiv, but Ukraine’s big summer offensive that year failed to make significant headway.
The fundamental problem for Ukraine and its Western allies has remained the same since the Russian military reorganised after its spectacular failure during its invasion in 2022. As a much larger country, Russia has a superiority in military manpower and firepower over Ukraine. Its resources are not inexhaustible, but it has the advantage in attritional First World War-type trench warfare in which casualties are heavy, estimated losses for both sides combined exceeding one million dead and wounded Russians and Ukrainians.
Russia has been able to sustain economic sanctions better than expected and has been able to pay its soldiers up to six times normal civilian pay, as well as providing large lump sums and pensions for the families of those who are killed.
While Ukraine has not lost much territory to Russian assaults, there are numerous reports of military units suffering from battle fatigue, low morale, and high rates of desertion.
Evasion of conscription is common. Men of military age avoid appearing in public in case they might be picked by the authorities. They may then be conscripted for military service, which is open-ended, so a new recruit faces being in the army until he is killed, wounded, deserts or the war ends.
Believe Nothing Until It Is Officially Denied: Claud Cockburn and the Invention of Guerrilla Journalism by Patrick Cockburn, is published by Verso
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