It’s not the most obvious nickname that comes to mind, but Robert Jenrick is the first Conservative leadership contender to acquire one. “Bobby J”, as some younger Tory activists are terming the former immigration secretary, has caught some early momentum in the race to succeed Rishi Sunak – thanks to his strident positions on immigration and housing, while discovering his inner right-winger.
Jenrick’s bid can be summed up in the infamous words of Sir Keith Joseph: “I had thought I was a Conservative but I now see that I was not really one at all.”
There is a clarity of vision and purpose to Jenrick’s bid that is appealing to Conservatives who feel that the devastating 2024 election loss was due to a lack of message passion about why Conservative principles are best placed to solve the great challenges that the country faces.
His calculated resignation from the Home Office in December 2023 was either principled or pragmatic, but there’s no chance he would be considered a viable contender had he remained a loyal soldier in the Sunak government. The key question he has to answer in this very long contest is, is this Damascene conversion for real?
Those who hope Jenrick will make it all the way to leader of the opposition are chiefly on the right flank of the party and believe the answer is a firm yes.
MPs from the socially conservative right of the party, such as Sir John Hayes and Danny Kruger, believe Jenrick was radicalised by his experience in the Home Office – that half measures on tackling illegal (and legal) migration won’t cut it and more radical steps are needed. His pledge to exit the European Court of Human Rights speaks to this: bold, radical, not without risk.
When the debates between contenders begin in September, Jenrick will need to answer some of the thornier questions, chiefly on how to secure the Five Eyes, the Good Friday and the trade agreement with the EU.
But there are others in the Conservative Party who are yet to be convinced, and think Jenrick spotted an ideological opportunity to exploit. Immigration grew in salience almost at the same rate as the government’s inability to control it fell.
As Onward’s post-mortem report on the election, “Breaking Blue”, highlighted, a lack of trust on immigration was one of the key reasons they received such a drubbing last month – and one of the key planks to any effort to rebuilding the party. It’s an issue that matters deeply to Conservative MPs, councillors, activists and members. But before he became immigration minister, it was not an issue that Jenrick was widely known for championing.
Jenrick has garnered the first controversial headlines of the leadership race with his recent comments on the riots across England. While he was at the Home Office, he called on some of the pro-Palestinian marches to be banned, expressing vocal concerns about hate speech and intimidation on the streets.
But he has gone one step further, now calling for those who chant “Allahu Akbar” (“God is most great” in Arabic) to be arrested at marches. He has been attacked by his own party, notably his leadership rival Mel Stride who suggested that the “wholesale criminalisation” of the phrase was “unwise and insensitive”.
Jenrick later clarified that he was not talking about the phrase in all contexts, but when it is used during strident protests. Citing a video, Jenrick noted that “aggressive chanting below is intimidatory and threatening” and pointed to sections four and five of the Public Order Act.
Although some quarters outside of the Conservative Party will not accept this explanation, others may, and may even praise Jenrick for speaking out. He echoed this when he lambasted Baroness Warsi for the “very troubling situation” when she criticised him for being racist for his remarks.
Although the Tory leadership race remains in its earliest stages, it’s likely that the riots are going to dominate the policy debate. Not only for how Sir Keir Starmer has dealt with them, but for the Conservative legacy on immigration, integration and community cohesion.
Whereas Mel Stride (currently 33/1 odds to win the contest) may position himself as the liberal conscience of the party, Jenrick will position himself at the far more conservative end of the party, where he thinks activists will likely be. The other main contenders – Kemi Badenoch, Tom Tugendhat, James Cleverly – will lodge themselves at various places between.
But above all, Conservative MPs and members will be eyeing the next election and which of the contenders can turn around the party’s dire fortunes. Jenrick’s supporters will seek to highlight his track record.
He first entered national politics at the 2014 Newark by-election and fought off the threat from a surging Ukip that was picking up seats elsewhere. As one of reporters who covered that by-election, I recall that his rival Roger Helmer was supremely confident of victory.
But when it came to the ultimate poll, Ukip picked up some 22 percentage points and Jenrick sailed to victory with a 7,403 majority. And when it came to the 2024 election, Jenrick bucked the trend of his region to become the Conservative MP left in Nottinghamshire. Taking the national swing into account, it’s clear that he had a strong personal vote that nudged him over the line.
The question for Tory members will be whether the personal vote and the potency of his politics is going to be the right combination for this moment.
Sebastian Payne is the director of the centre-right think-tank Onward
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