Keir Starmer’s European bromance is to take centre stage at Chequers when the Prime Minister hosts German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at his grace and favour residence on Sunday.
The pair should have plenty to talk about. As well as the official agenda of Ukraine and the Middle East, the two have much in common – both are social democrat lawyers. They hit it off early in Starmer’s premiership with the German newspaper Der Spiegel suggesting their joint lack of charisma might be why “they like each other so much”.
Yet Scholz’s presence will also serve as a reminder of the changing political landscape Starmer finds himself in.
In a few weeks, Scholz’s party will go to the polls in the national German elections where they are expected to receive an electoral battering. The expectation is a result fitting into the pattern of centrist-left governments losing support while radical parties on the right make gains.
This is not lost on Starmer’s inner circle. In Downing Street, they have been trying to learn the lessons of Scholz’s and Joe Biden’s recent electoral struggles.
(Photo: Getty Europe)
The challenge is how do Labour become the disrupters not defenders of a bloated, misfiring status quo that never delivers?
To answer that question, Labour aides are trying to work out what the right has got right. This is not natural fodder for Labour MPs. Many on the left look at the rise of the likes of Donald Trump in the US, Giorgio Meloni in Italy and Javier Milei in Argentina with concern bordering on disgust. But if one side is winning, the thinking goes that it’s worth trying to work out why.
“There’s been a shift,” says a senior Labour figure. “I was even in a conversation the other day with colleagues where we were speaking positively about Javier Milei.”
Milei is the chainsaw-wielding Argentinian leader who since entering government has slashed the size of the state and called the public sector “the illness”.
After a tricky start to government, Labour ministers are becoming disillusioned with Whitehall and the state. Starmer’s supporters are coming round to the idea that to get things done they need to be radical – the status quo won’t do. The buzz word around Labour think tanks is “disruptors”.
Ahead of the general election, supporters of Keir Starmer argued that a Labour government would be the equivalent of the “grown-ups back in charge”. The idea being that Starmer – who has had the nickname Mr Rules – would preside over a return to order in Whitehall. No longer would there be Tory ministers tearing up age-old conventions, breaking international law and slagging off civil servants.
Yet six months into governing and some of Starmer’s party are having these views run up against the reality of a system where it is hard to get much done.
Once upon a time Labour politicians were the defenders of the state and the British system – but these days they are discovering the issues from inside government. It’s driving an urge to be more radical in the coming months.
What does that look like under a Labour government?
It won’t be full-scale Milei – while the Argentinian firebrand axed a bunch of government departments, there are no such plans to reduce the number of ministries in Whitehall. Among the ideas being considered are cutting government waste, taking bold decisions on welfare (the cost has ballooned) and rewriting the state.
“It’s Operation Chainsaw,” says a senior party figure. There’s also a desire to create a more nimble state through the use of tech, data and AI. Some MPs are even pushing the Government to adopt digital ID as a way of making it easier for citizens to interact with the state.
Rachel Reeves took a few tentative steps in this direction this week with her growth speech. Much of the contents had been heard before – championed by Tory politicians in the last government. Ideas such as a third runway at Heathrow and the Oxford Cambridge arc were announced by the Tories – they just failed to deliver on them.
Reeves has decided that with a large majority, this Labour Government will have the nerve to push through divisive plans against vested interests.
“She’s actually played a blinder,” argues one supportive MP. “She started the month with MPs saying she might not hold on – and now she’s managed to move the Government to backing a host of radical measures even Tory MPs wouldn’t get behind a few years ago.”
But an even tougher sell to the Labour Party is the coming welfare battle. The Government is finally catching up on welfare reform and how the system is unsustainable.
“It’s a huge problem,” one party figure says of the cost to the taxpayer. “They should have done it earlier. Only radical action will do as the scale of the problem is huge.”
A green paper is due in March – with ministers ultimately having to find ways to reduce the number of people on benefits. “It’s not very Labour to take people’s benefits away, but it has to be done,” says one figure privy to the conversations.
There is also a threat from the radical right closer to home: Nigel Farage. The rise of Reform is focusing minds. Labour MPs have been sharing over WhatsApp an article by former Starmer adviser Peter Hyman titled How to Beat Populism. In it, he says: “Stop shouting about how appalled we are by Trump and Farage and learn from our mistakes, to build our own disruptive new agenda of change, respect for ordinary people and pride in our country.”
The work is underway – the question that remains is how far Keir Starmer is really willing to go. His meeting with Scholz will serve as a reminder of what happens when centre left parties fail to adapt.
Katy Balls is political editor at ‘The Spectator‘
翻译：
This Labour Government is about to get a whole lot more Tory