The worst possible transfer window at the worst possible time? Away from the tolling bells and fluorescent ties of the Sky Sports studio, January is typically the quieter of the two markets, a time for reflective squad-tweaks rather than extravagant lunacy.
There have been exceptions to that rule, but as another year threatens to be hit by Covid and clubs fear “financial Armageddon” if restrictions on supporters once again mean staging matches behind closing doors, there is at least a sense of caution going into the upcoming window.
It is easy to see why. In the major European leagues in January 2021, the biggest signing in terms of money spent was Manchester United’s purchase of Amad Diallo (agreed in the summer, completed in the new year). The teenager cost £37m from Atalanta and has so far made nine first team appearances, only three of which have been in the league.
The real currency is likely to be in a number of high-profile stars whose contracts expire in the summer of 2022. They will be able to talk to overseas clubs from January and if they don’t extend their current deals, would otherwise be free to leave on a Bosman transfer in the summer if they weren’t sold before that.
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Some of those, such as Tottenham captain Hugo Lloris, are by no means guaranteed to leave and could yet be offered a new deal. Others, in particular Kylian Mbappe and Paul Pogba, have been the subject of months (if not years) of speculation and it’s not inconceivable that both World Cup winners could be on the move.
Transfer window dates
- 1 January – Window opens for clubs in the English and Scottish leagues, as well as the Bundesliga and Ligue 1.
- 3 January – Window opens for La Liga and Serie A.
- 31 January – Window closes.
New deals must be registered by 11pm GMT in the UK on deadline day. Free agents signed before the window opens can only be officially registered for their new clubs in January – for instance, Dani Alves won’t be on Barcelona’s books until 3 January, when the La Liga window opens, despite re-signing this month.
Deals to look out for – and how likely they are
Kylian Mbappe
Deals of this magnitude so rarely actually come off in January. That being said, Paris Saint-Germain are veering dangerously close to the end of Mbappe’s contract and as they continue to battle with FFP regulations, they cannot afford to risk losing him for free. During the striker’s most recent interview, he gave a cryptic answer to questions surrounding his future. “Whatever happens, I’m going to play for a big club,” he told Amazon Prime Video.
i‘s likely-o-meter: 8/10
Anthony Martial
Martial’s agent, Philippe Lamboley, recently went public with the forward’s desire to leave Manchester United. Since then, he has held talks with Ralf Rangnick and could initially move on loan, with Sevilla thought to be leading the race.
i‘s likely-o-meter: 8/10
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Dusan Vlahovic
Only Robert Lewandowski (with 43) has scored more league goals in Europe’s top five divisions this calendar year than Fiorentina hot-shot Dusan Vlahovic (with 33). The 21-year-old has been linked with big clubs across the continent including Juventus, Arsenal, Manchester City and Spurs. With his contract expiring in the summer of 2023, the Serie A club will have to cash in on him now or in the summer to get a healthy transfer fee.
i‘s likely-o-meter: 6/10
Dele Alli
Alli was restored to the Spurs starting XI against Liverpool, but there were a few caveats to bear in mind. While he was impressive against a makeshift Reds midfield featuring Tyler Morton and James Milner, it was his first start under Antonio Conte in the Premier League. So his inclusion was either a case of “last chance saloon”, or a reflection of the squeeze on Spurs’ options right now.
Conte’s squad suffered their own Covid outbreak a fortnight ago and while it wasn’t known which players were affected, there were a couple of unusual changes to his side in that 2-2 draw which suggested that the entirety of the group are not fighting fit.
i‘s likely-o-meter: 6/10
Paul Pogba
Mino Raiola has repeatedly talked up a move for Pogba, but the circumstances haven’t always been right. That has arguably changed now as he prepares to enter the last six months of his contract, though he’s set to be injured for the first half of the window.
i‘s likely-o-meter: 7/10
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang
Mikel Arteta has left Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang out of his last four matchday squads due to a disciplinary breach and with Arsenal faring better without the 32-year-old, it is hard to see him forcing his way back into favour. Both Milan clubs, Juventus and Barcelona have been mentioned as potential suitors, although the latter are unlikely to be in the market for a new striker after agreeing a deal for Manchester City’s Ferran Torres.
i‘s likely-o-meter: 7/10
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Alexandre Lacazette
Lacazette only has six months left to run on his Arsenal contract but his situation is complicated by the exile of Aubameyang. After the former captain – stripped of the armband by Arteta – was dropped, it’s looking increasingly likely that his days at the Emirates are numbered. That could mean his strike partner staying put for now.
i‘s likely-o-meter: 4/10
Philippe Coutinho
Since Xavi’s appointment Coutinho has been getting regular minutes at Barcelona, but he is also among their most valuable assets. Newcastle were immediately linked with the playmaker in the aftermath of their takeover, though the looming threat of relegation makes that look increasingly fantastical.
i‘s likely-o-meter: 4/10
Antonio Rudiger
It’s certainly not beyond the realms of possibility that Rudiger will resolve his contract dispute with Chelsea, though Tottenham and Manchester United are among the Premier League clubs who have been linked. The centre-back has just six months to run on his current deal. Cesar Azpilicueta, Andreas Christensen and Thiago Silva are all in the same boat, although the latter is expected to pen a one-year deal extension.
i‘s likely-o-meter: 5/10
Kieran Trippier
The Atletico Madrid full-back is believed to be among Newcastle’s more ambitious targets. Newcastle are concentrating on players who can “plug in and play” in a relegation fight and are likely to focus on buying British for the time being. Again, their current position in the table could well be an obstacle but Trippier does appear keen to return to England.
i‘s likely-o-meter: 7/10
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Jesse Lingard
Lingard initially looked set to revive his United career after scoring nine goals in 16 appearances on loan at West Ham in 2020-21. That hasn’t happened and at the time of writing, he hasn’t started a Premier League game this season. It appears as though the England international is happy to bide his time before making a decision on his future and see out the remainder of his contract rather than moving on in January.
i‘s likely-o-meter: 4/10
James Tarkowski
As anybody who has watched them in recent games will attest, Newcastle are absolutely desperate for defensive reinforcements in January. Burnley’s James Tarkowski has been strongly linked with a move to Eddie Howe’s side ever since the club’s takeover and given his contract is set to expire in the summer, the Clarets may reluctantly sanction his sale to a relegation rival.
i‘s likely-o-meter: 9/10
Dean Henderson
Another England international struggling for game time at Old Trafford is goalkeeper Dean Henderson who has made only two appearances all season. The 24-year-old has been linked with loan moves to Ajax and Newcastle.
i‘s likely-o-meter: 7/10
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