The race for automatic promotion from the Championship is going to the final day, with Ipswich Town holding the advantage over Leeds United.
In the battle to join Leicester City in the Premier League next season, second-placed Ipswich are currently three points ahead of Leeds after winning their game in hand at Coventry City on Tuesday night.
That 2-1 win away has made the picture much clearer heading into the last round of fixtures on Saturday.
Simply put, Ipswich – pursuing back-to-back promotions under Kieran McKenna – must draw or win at home to Huddersfield Town to secure automatic promotion at Leeds’ expense.
Huddersfield themselves are all but relegated, but should Ipswich lose then Leeds – who boast a superior goal difference – would have the chance to overtake them if they win at home to Southampton.
In short, the only way Leeds can go up on Saturday is if they win and Ipswich lose. Otherwise, it is the play-off route for Leeds.
Ipswich boss McKenna said: “I’ve got belief in them and a lot of belief in what we’ve done, the consistency that we’ve shown, how we prepare for games, how we concentrate throughout games and how we get our identity out there on the pitch gives us a great chance to win games.
“I’ve got a lot of belief but it’s a football match, two teams in the same division, one who were in a lower division the season before.
“Anything can happen, I don’t expect it to be smooth sailing. There’s going to be tension in the game for sure as there is when you’re fighting for things but it’ll be about doing enough of the right things to help us keep on top of that.”
Southampton will finish fourth in the table regardless of Saturday’s outcome, and are therefore likely to face Norwich City in the play-off semi-finals.
Norwich are currently fifth ahead of West Brom, meaning the Baggies likely await Leeds or Ipswich, depending on who finishes an unwanted third.
Hull City could yet trouble West Brom in the fight for a play-off spot, with only two points separating those two sides.
At the other end of the table, Rotherham United are already down – rock-bottom on just 24 points – and then beyond Huddersfield’s expected demotion there is a four-way battle to avoid the final relegation spot.
Currently Birmingham City occupy that place, 22nd in the table, and the Blues host Norwich knowing they must beat the Canaries and hope 21st-placed Plymouth lose at home to Hull.
Meanwhile, Blackburn Rovers and Sheffield Wednesday are not yet mathematically safe, with both clubs three points ahead of Birmingham.
Blackburn have the same goal difference as Birmingham (-16), with Wednesday’s (-26) significantly worse.
Wins for Birmingham and Plymouth would therefore put Blackburn and Wednesday under threat of relegation, a scenario not out of the question given Blackburn travel to Leicester and Wednesday head to Sunderland.
The only scenario where Birmingham and Plymouth end up on the same amount of points is a draw for the former and loss for the latter.
Providing Plymouth do not lose heavily to Hull City, given they are on -12 goal difference themselves, then they will stay up in that scenario.
