[en] Concerns about the security of oil supply in importing countries can be traced back to the very beginnings of the international oil industry. Over the last few decades, events in the Middle East have brought security of supply to the forefront of the policy agenda. In this paper, we argue that policy-making requires a clear understanding of what is meant by 'security of supply'. In turn, this must rest on an explicit characterization of the nature of supply disruptions. We examine existing characterizations, provide some of our own, and draw the implications for defining security of supply. 14 refs

No abstract available

[en] Previous PNNL work has shown the existing nuclear fuel markets to provide a high degree of supply security, including the ability to respond to supply disruptions that occur for technical and non-technical reasons. It is in the context of new reactor designs - that is, reactors likely to be licensed and market ready over the next several decades - that fuel supply security is most relevant. Whereas the fuel design and fabrication technology for existing reactors are well known, the construction of a new set of reactors could stress the ability of the existing market to provide adequate supply redundancy. This study shows this is unlikely to occur for at least thirty years, as most reactors likely to be built in the next three decades will be evolutions of current designs, with similar fuel designs to existing reactors.

[en] IGBT-based high-voltage power devices will be key components for future renewable energy base of the society. Windmills in the range up to 10 MW use converters with IGBTs. HVDC systems with IGBT-based voltage source converters have the advantage of a lower level of harmonics, less efforts for filters and more possibilities for control. The power devices need a lifetime expectation of several ten years. The lifetime is determined by the reliability of the packaging technology. IGBTs are offered packaged in presspacks and modules. The presentation will have the focus on IGBT high power modules. Accelerated power cycling tests for to determine the end-of-life at given conditions and their results are shown. models to calculate the lifetime, and actual work in research for systems with increased reliability.

[en] Highlights: • We evaluate the dynamic dependence between oil prices and geopolitical risks. • We separate shocks due to geopolitical acts from those due to geopolitical threats. • We construct a composite geopolitical risk indicator that summarizes recent sources of risks. • We show a positive and strong (moderate) response of oil prices to geopolitical acts (threats). • The reaction of oil to geopolitical risks is conditional on different categories of geopolitical risks. -- Abstract: This study characterizes the oil market as a nonlinear-switching phenomenon and examines its dynamics in response to changes in geopolitical risks over low- and high-risk scenarios. We separate the shocks due to geopolitical acts from those due to geopolitical threats to address whether the serious effects of geopolitical risks are mostly due to increased threats of adverse events or to their realization as acts. While we find the acts to generate a positive and strong impact on oil price dynamics, the effect of threats appears to be moderate or non-significant. Imperfect information in the oil price determination, the history of oil supply disruptions emanating from geopolitical events, the continued rise in populism in the world, oil market volatility, multifractility and the time-varying degree of weak-form efficiency have been advanced to explain the unforeseen responses of oil prices to geopolitical threats. To accommodate recent oil-related events, we construct a composite geopolitical risk indicator by accounting for contemporaneous sources of geopolitical risks, namely global trade tensions, US-China relation risks, US-Iran tensions, Saudi Arabia’s uncertainty and Venezuela’s crisis. The combined effects have an outsized impact on oil prices.

[en] The last two decades have seen much economic and policy research devoted to understanding the causes and consequences of oil supply disruptions. Theoretical models have been developed, and past disruptions scrutinized. Surprisingly, however, scant attention has been paid to the most recent serious disruption - the Gulf Crisis of 1990-91 associated with the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, and subsequent war with the Allies. This report examines the behavior of the crude oil market during the Gulf Crisis of 1990-91. The controversial issues raised by crude oil price behavior during the Crisis are several. First, why did oil prices rise so rapidly, and to such a high level, when the physical supply disruption itself was relatively modest. Why did prices decline so sharply in the middle of the crisis. How can the unprecedented volatility in the oil market be explained. Was the presence of futures trading responsible for this volatility. Or was there underlying volatility present in the market, which was exacerbated by futures trading. Or did futures markets mitigate, or have no effect on underlying price volatility

[en] Highlights: • Energy importers tend to reallocate their overseas investment to mitigate the risk of energy supply disruption; • We employ the South China Sea dispute as a quasi-experiment with a DiD approach; • We find empirical evidence that geopolitical uncertainty raises China's oil & gas-related investment to low-risk countries; • Diversification strategy should be adopted to secure energy stability. Based on Chinese outward foreign direct investment data, this study examines the impact of the South China Sea Dispute on China's overseas investments in oil & gas-related sectors. The South China Sea Dispute alarms a potential threat to China's energy supply. By applying a difference-in-difference estimation, we find that the South China Sea Dispute brings about an increase in the frequency of China's oil & gas-related investments to low-risk countries. The findings are robust under several specification tests. It indicates that under geopolitical uncertainty environment, energy-importers will reallocate energy investment in order to avoid the potential disruption of energy supply.

[en] Peak oil theory predicts that oil production will soon start a terminal decline. Most authors imply that no adequate alternate resource and technology will be available to replace oil as the backbone resource of industrial society. This article uses historical cases from countries that have gone through a similar experience as the best available analytical strategy to understand what will happen if the predictions of peak oil theorists are right. The author is not committed to a particular version of peak oil theory, but deems the issue important enough to explore how various parts of the world should be expected to react. From the historical record he is able to identify predatory militarism, totalitarian retrenchment, and socioeconomic adaptation as three possible trajectories. (author)

[en] This paper is a study on petroleum, a reliable and abundant fossil fuel according to the author which describes available crude oil reserves, production and transport, prices and demand. 1 fig., 1 tab

[en] The article deals with the Norwegian natural gas supply to the European Continent. The Norwegian upstream gas industry has to overcome several pressing issues at present, especially the EU Gas Directive which it believes threatens the very existence of long term contracts. Small and marginal fields will not be developed if the operators are prevented from securing investments in long term gas contracts. The various types of contracts between Norway and the different countries are discussed