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The INCOTUR model : estimation of losses in the tourism sector in Alcudia due to a hydrocarbon spill
Bergueiro, J.R.; Moreno, S.; Guijarro, S.; Santos, A.; Serr, F.
Proceedings of the 29. Arctic and Marine Oilspill Program (AMOP) Technical Seminar2006
Proceedings of the 29. Arctic and Marine Oilspill Program (AMOP) Technical Seminar2006
AbstractAbstract
[en] This paper presented a computer model that calculates the economic losses incurred by a hydrocarbon spill on a coastal area. In particular, it focused on the Balearic Islands in the Bay of Alcudia where the economy depends mainly on tourism. A large number of oil tankers carrying crude oil and petroleum products pass through the Balearic Sea. Any pollution resulting from a fuel spill can have a significant economic impact on both the tourism sector and the Balearic society in general. This study focused on the simulation of 18 spills of Jet A1 fuel oil, unleaded gasoline and Bunker C fuel oil. Simulations of the study area were produced with OILMAP, MIKE21, GNOME and ADIOS models which estimated the trajectories of various spills and the amount of oil washed ashore. The change in physical and chemical properties of the spilled hydrocarbons was also determined. The simulation models considered the trajectory followed by spills according to the type and amount of spill, weather conditions prevailing during the spill and the period immediately following the spill. The INCOTUR model was then used to calculate the economic losses resulting from an oil spill by considering the number of tonnes of oil washed ashore; number of days needed to organize cleanup; the percentage of tourism that will be maintained despite the effects of the spill; number of hotel beds; percentage of hotel occupancy by month; cost of package holidays; petty cash expenses; and, cost of advertising campaign for the affected area. With this data, the model can determine the number of days needed to clean and restore the coastline; monthly rate of recovery in tourism levels; and, losses in tourism sector. According to the INCOTUR model, the total losses incurred by a spill of 40,000 tonnes of Bunker C fuel, was estimated at 472 million Euros. 9 refs., 2 tabs., 12 figs
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Environment Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada). Funding organisation: Spanish Ministry of Education and Science, Madrid (Spain); 1122 p; 2006; p. 301-314; 29. Arctic and Marine Oilspill Program (AMOP) Technical Seminar; Vancouver, BC (Canada); 6-8 Jun 2006; Available from Environment Canada, Emergencies Science and Technology Division, Science and Technology Branch, Environmental Technology Centre, 335 River Road, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0H3; v.1
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Miscellaneous
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Conference
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