[en] Highlights: • An analytical model is developed based on the maximum entropy production principle. • The model is self-consistent and complete without assuming the response of system. • The model can directly predict the steady state of continuous drive friction welding. • The accuracy and universality of the model are confirmed by the experiment results. -- Abstract: An analytical model was developed based on the thermodynamic theory of Onsager-Ziegler maximum entropy production principle (OZ-MEPP) and the relevant dynamic laws, and used for characterizing the steady-state system of the severe plastic deformation (SPD) produced by continuous drive friction welding (CDFW) without any pre-assumed or measured response parameters. The accuracy and universality of the model were verified by the CDFW experiments of eight kinds of alloys, the results of which indicated that the model could precisely predict the temperature, axial shortening rate, welding power. Moreover, the coefficient of friction, traditionally regarded as an empirical parameter, could be forecasted too.