[en] The overarching purpose of this study is to project changes in occurrence frequency of future heavy rainfall and high-flow events under downscaled climate change scenarios for four selected river watersheds (Grand, Humber, Thames, Rideau Rivers) in Ontario, Canada. This study comprises of three major parts: (1) historical simulation modeling to verify the events, (2) statistical downscaling to provide station-scale climate change scenarios, and (3) estimates of changes in frequency and magnitude of future events in 21st century. To achieve these goals, in addition to synoptic weather typing, the modeling conceptualizations in meteorology/hydrology and various regression techniques were applied. Furthermore, a formal model result verification process has been built into the entire modeling exercise. The results of the verification, based on historical observations of the outcome variables predicted by the models, showed very good agreement. This talk will introduce this research project and outline the modeling exercise and result verification process. The major findings on future estimates from the study will be summarized in the presentation as well. The results show that under downscaled climate change scenarios, frequency of the future heavy rainfall and high-/low-flow events for four selected river basins in Ontario could increase in the future. One of the major conclusions from the studies is that the procedures used in the study have the potential to be incorporated into municipal/community emergency response plans, thus providing them with real-time forecasting information to minimize the risks. The implementation of the significant increases in future heavy rainfall-related flooding risks should be taken into consideration when revising engineering infrastructure design standards (including infrastructure maintenance and new construction) and developing adaptation strategies and policies. (author)

[en] 'Full text:' Building codes and standards and the climatic design values embedded within these legal to semi-legal documents have profound safety, health and economic implications for Canada's infrastructure systems. The climatic design values that have been used for the design of almost all of today's more than $5.5 Trillion in infrastructure are based on historical climate data and assume that the extremes of the past will represent future conditions. Since new infrastructure based on codes and standards will be built to survive for decades to come, it is critically important that existing climatic design information be as accurate and up-to-date as possible, that the changing climate be monitored to detect and highlight vulnerabilities of existing infrastructure, that forensic studies of climate-related failures be undertaken and that codes and standards processes incorporate future climates and extremes as much as possible. Uncertainties in the current climate change models and their scenarios currently challenge our ability to project future extremes regionally and locally. Improvements to the spatial and temporal resolution of these climate change scenarios, along with improved methodologies to treat model biases and localize results, will allow future codes and standards to better reflect the extremes and weathering conditions expected over the lifespan of structures. In the meantime, other information and code processes can be used to incorporate changing climate conditions into upcoming infrastructure codes and standards, to “bridge” the model uncertainty gap and to complement the state of existing projections. This presentation will outline some of the varied information and processes that will be used to incorporate climate change adaptation into the next development cycle of the National Building Code of Canada and numerous other national CSA infrastructure standards. (author)

[en] Rising temperatures across Northern Canada are having a profound impact on performance of existing infrastructure and the design of proposed new infrastructure founded on permafrost. Existing ground temperatures are nearing their design ground temperatures, with the result that additional climate warming may cause problems for existing and proposed infrastructure over the course of their service life. New guidance in permafrost regions is needed that goes beyond the use of traditional climate values representing the past 30 year period of climate records. This paper provides guidance on design temperatures parameters that will cover the lifespan of new Northern structures over their service life. (author)

[en] Canada's natural environment and built infrastructure are affected significantly by extreme weather events, with repercussions such as economic losses. The purpose of this presentation was to research whether these losses are due to greater societal vulnerability or climatic extremes or both, and to determine whether engineering design codes and standards need to be changed to ensure that infrastructure, such as dams, can withstand future climatic extremes. Environment Canada maintains long term climate and water observing networks and uses climate data in the development of building codes and engineering design standards and practices. Because of the variable nature of precipitation, the range of spatial scales, climate system influences and the importance of local topography on precipitation occurrence and amount, analyzing historical trends and making future projections for precipitation, particularly extremes, are challenging. This presentation discussed historical climate trends and future projections with reference to changes temperature, precipitation and precipitation extremes. In addition, extreme weather events and recent trends were discussed together with human influence on trends and projections. The presentation demonstrated how the climate in Canada has varied during the period of instrumental records. Future predictions for precipitation extremes were developed using climate models and statistical downscaling. The presentation also highlighted atmospheric hazards information under development for emergency preparedness and disaster management planning. It was concluded that future climate changes are inevitable and will likely affect the frequency of heavy precipitation events. 14 refs., 1 tab., 19 figs