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Avenhaus, R.
Mannheim Univ. (Germany, F.R.). Fakultaet fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik1974
Mannheim Univ. (Germany, F.R.). Fakultaet fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik1974
AbstractAbstract
[en] It is shown how the inspection group can judge the material balance without having to account for the operator's data and for the possibility of adulteration of data by the operator. Instead, the variation of the true values of the materials contents comes into play, which, in practice, may considerably reduce the quality of the statement. In the case dealt with in the main part, it is assumed that the inspection group, after checking the operator's data by means of its own, independent measurements, is establishing the material balance exclusively on the basis of the operator's data. In this case, the variation of the true values of the materials contents need not to be considered, but there is the possibility of data adulteration. Intermediate solutions are also conceivable, e.g. the inspection group using its own measured data (after these have been used to check the relevant operator's data) to put up the material balance, and applying the data of the operator for the rest of the units of measurement. These solutions indeed limit the influence of variations of the true values, but they, again, make it necessary to take into consideration strategies of adulateration of data. These facts may be interpreted as a kind of complementarity: one of the two (undesirable) effects: variation of the true values and the possibility of data adulteration can only be pushed back at the price of increasing the influence of the other effect. (orig./HP)
[de]
Es wird gezeigt, wie die Inspektionsgruppe zu einem Urteil ueber die Materialbilanz kommen kann, ohne die Betreiberdaten und damit die Moeglichkeit der Verfaelschung von Daten seitens des Betreibers beruecksichtigen zu muessen. Dafuer kommt jedoch die Schwankung der wahren Werte der Materialgehalte ins Spiel, die in der Praxis die Guete der Aussage erheblich einschraenken kann. In dem im Hauptteil behandelten Fall wird angenommen, dass die Inspektionsgruppe nach Pruefung der Betreiberdaten durch eigene, unabhaengige Messungen die Materialbilanz ausschliesslich auf der Basis der Betreiberdaten erstellt. In diesem Fall braucht die Schwankung der wahren Werte der Materialgehalte nicht beruecksichtigt zu werden, jedoch ist die Moeglichkeit der Datenverfaelschung vorhanden. Es sind auch Zwischenloesungen denkbar, z.B., dass die Inspektionsgruppe zur Erstellung der Materialbilanz die eigenen, gemessenen Daten verwendet (nachdem diese vorher zur Kontrolle der entsprechenden Betreiberdaten verwendet wurden) und fuer den Rest der Messeinheiten die Daten des Betreibers. Diese Loesungen schraenken zwar den Einfluss der Schwankungen der wahren Werte ein, sie machen es jedoch wiederum notwendig, Datenverfaelschungsstrategien zu beruecksichtigen. Man kann diesen Sachverhalt als eine Art Komplementaritaet interpretieren: einer der beiden (unerwuenschten) Effekte: Schwankung der wahren Werte bzw. Moeglichkeit der Datenverfaelschung, laesst sich immer nur um den Preis des wachsenden Einflusses des anderen Effektes zurueckdraengen. (orig./HP)Original Title
Entscheidungstheoretische Analyse von Ueberwachungsproblemen in kerntechnischen Anlagen
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Dec 1974; 113 p; 30 refs.; with figs.; Habil. Schr.
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AbstractAbstract
[en] Systematic measurement errors have a decisive impact on nuclear materials accountancy. This has been demonstrated at various occasions for a fixed number of inventory periods, i.e. for situations where the overall probability of detection is taken as the measure of effectiveness. In the framework of Near Real Time Accountancy (NRTA), however, such analyses have not yet been performed. In this paper sequential test procedures are considered which are based on the so-called MUF-Residuals. It is shown that, if the decision maker does not know the systematic error variance, the average run lengths tend towards infinity if this variance is equal or longer than that of the random error. Furthermore, if the decision maker knows this invariance, the average run length for constant loss or diversion is not shorter than that without loss or diversion. These results cast some doubt on the present practice of data evaluation where systematic errors are tacitly assumed to persist for an infinite time. In fact, information about the time dependence of the variances of these errors has to be gathered in order that the efficiency of NRTA evaluation methods can be estimated realistically
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28. INMM annual meeting on safeguards: a mature technology; Newport Beach, CA (USA); 12-15 Jul 1987; CONF-870713--
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Avenhaus, R; Spannagel, G.
Los Alamos National Lab., NM (USA)
Los Alamos National Lab., NM (USA)
AbstractAbstract
[en] Monitoring and control of complex processes as encountered primarily in modern industry, today require operators of above-average experience and ability. In the interest of a secure and continuous operation it is thus necessary to seek methods which will support a process control so that the operator can recognize the reasons for malfunctions as quickly as possible. Regardless of whether the particular problems are encountered in every technical process, in the present report process steps for the planned reprocessing plant are considered. Besides the control of such a plant, a monitoring of the core material is necessary to maintain a control of the movement of fissionable materials. The test methods described also apply to this problem. 5 references, 4 figures
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nd; 13 p; Translated from KFK-Nachr.; 14: 193-197(1982).
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Avenhaus, R.; Markin, J.
Los Alamos National Lab., NM (USA)1985
Los Alamos National Lab., NM (USA)1985
AbstractAbstract
[en] The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is unique among international organizations in its use of on-site inspections to verify that States are in compliance with the terms of a negotiated agreement. The legal basis for the inspections is agreements between the IAEA and the State, concluded in the framework of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, for full scope safeguards on all nuclear materials. In addition, other more limited agreements for safeguards on a portion of a State's nuclear material are also concluded with States not party to the Treaty. In either case, the role of the IAEA is to verify compliance with the terms of these agreements by auditing facility operating records and reports submitted to the IAEA by the State; by independent measurement of nuclear materials by IAEA inspectors; and by emplacement of surveillance devices to monitor facility operations in the inspector's absence. Although IAEA safeguards are applied only to peaceful nuclear activities and do not attempt to control or reduce the numbers of nuclear weapons, there are aspects of the IAEA methods and technology that may be applicable to treaty verification for arms control. Among these aspects are: (1) the form of the IAEA's agreements with States; (2) the IAEA approach to inspection planning; and (3) the instrumentation employed by the IAEA for monitoring facility activities and for measuring nuclear material
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1985; 8 p; Workshop on modeling and analysis of arms control problems; Spitzingsee (Germany, F.R.); 20-25 Oct 1985; CONF-8510295--1; Available from NTIS, PC A02/MF A01 as DE86008744
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ACCOUNTING, IAEA AGREEMENTS, IAEA SAFEGUARDS, INSPECTION, INTERNAL CONVERSION RADIOISOTO, MONITORING, NON-PROLIFERATION POLICY, NUCLEAR FACILITIES, NUCLEAR MATERIALS DIVERSION, NUCLEAR MATERIALS MANAGEMENT, PLUTONIUM, QUALITATIVE CHEMICAL ANALYSIS, SPONTANEOUS FISSION RADIOISOTO, URANIUM 235, URANIUM 238, VERIFICATION
ACTINIDE NUCLEI, ACTINIDES, AGREEMENTS, ALPHA DECAY RADIOISOTOPES, CHEMICAL ANALYSIS, ELEMENTS, EVEN-EVEN NUCLEI, EVEN-ODD NUCLEI, HEAVY NUCLEI, INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS, ISOMERIC TRANSITION ISOTOPES, ISOTOPES, MANAGEMENT, METALS, MINUTES LIVING RADIOISOTOPES, NUCLEI, RADIOISOTOPES, SAFEGUARDS, TRANSURANIUM ELEMENTS, URANIUM ISOTOPES, YEARS LIVING RADIOISOTOPES
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Paschen, H.; Avenhaus, R.
Kernforschungszentrum Karlsruhe G.m.b.H. (Germany, F.R.). Abt. fuer Angewandte Systemanalyse1978
Kernforschungszentrum Karlsruhe G.m.b.H. (Germany, F.R.). Abt. fuer Angewandte Systemanalyse1978
AbstractAbstract
[en] Nuclear material requires special protective measures because of its great economic importance, its toxicity (especially plutonium), and its military value. Usually the total complex of nuclear material control is subdivided into a) physical protection measures which are applied to protect nuclear material and installations, and b) international safeguards which are intended to reduce the hazard of nuclear proliferation. In this paper, the present technological and organizational status and some open questions of international nuclear material safeguards are presented in some detail. Physical protection will be touched upon only briefly, as the measures to be taken here do not differ, in principle, from those to be taken elsewhere. (orig./HP)
[de]
Kernmaterial bedarf eines besonderen Schutzes wegen seines hohen wirtschaftlichen Wertes, wegen seiner grossen Toxizitaet (besonders Plutonium) und wegen seiner Verwendbarkeit zum Bau von nuklearen Waffen. Ueblicherweise wird der Gesamtkomplex der Kernmaterialueberwachung eingeteilt in die Kernmaterialsicherung, die den generellen Schutz von Material und Anlagen beinhaltet, und in die Kernmaterialueberwachung, die dem Zweck der Nicht-Weiterverbreitung von nuklearen Waffen dient. In dieser Arbeit werden Entwicklung, technisch-organisatorischer Stand und offene Fragen der Kernmaterialueberwachung ausfuehrlich dargestellt. Der Bereich der Kernmaterialsicherung wird nur kurz angesprochen, da sich die hier zu treffenden Massnahmen praktisch nicht von den entsprechenden Massnahmen in anderen Bereichen unterscheiden. (orig./HP)Original Title
Konsequenzen des grosstechnischen Einsatzes der Kernenergie in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland. T. 6
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Oct 1978; 35 p; ASA/ZE--15/78
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Avenhaus, R.; Gupta, D.; Kraemer, R.
Kernforschungszentrum Karlsruhe (F.R. Germany). Inst. fuer Angewandte Reaktorphysik1971
Kernforschungszentrum Karlsruhe (F.R. Germany). Inst. fuer Angewandte Reaktorphysik1971
AbstractAbstract
No abstract available
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Apr 1971; 25 p; 1 tab.; 5 refs.
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Avenhaus, R.; Canty, M.J.
Kernforschungsanlage Juelich G.m.b.H. (Germany, F.R.). Programmgruppe Technik und Gesellschaft1988
Kernforschungsanlage Juelich G.m.b.H. (Germany, F.R.). Programmgruppe Technik und Gesellschaft1988
AbstractAbstract
[en] The discussion of non-sequential random inspections begun in Part I is extended here to include the possibility of false alarms. A randomization of inspection activities is assumed in which in general only a subset of the paths are inspected. The problem of calculating a guaranteed detection probability for diversion along an arbitrary path is considered. Useful analytical solutions are again obtained for various assumptions regarding inspection resource constraints and false alarm probabilities. (orig.)
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Oct 1988; 33 p
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Avenhaus, R.; Fenyi, S.; Jakubick, A.T.; Ludewig, J.
Kernforschungszentrum Karlsruhe G.m.b.H. (Germany, F.R.). Inst. fuer Datenverarbeitung in der Technik 1; Kernforschungszentrum Karlsruhe G.m.b.H. (Germany, F.R.). Projekt Spaltstoffflusskontrolle1980
Kernforschungszentrum Karlsruhe G.m.b.H. (Germany, F.R.). Inst. fuer Datenverarbeitung in der Technik 1; Kernforschungszentrum Karlsruhe G.m.b.H. (Germany, F.R.). Projekt Spaltstoffflusskontrolle1980
AbstractAbstract
[en] A linear balance model for the plutonium pathways in the nature is developed, the kinetic model constants of which are taken from measurements of fallout plutonium. Such a consistent model for the fallout plutonium may be used, e.g., for the analysis of the pathways of industrially released plutonium. In this paper the methodology of the analysis of box models is further developed. The relation between box models and tracer analysis is discussed. The numerical calculations which refer to middle European latitudes are of illustrative nature. (orig.)
[de]
Es wird ein lineares Bilanzierungsmodell fuer die Migration des Plutoniums in der Natur aufgestellt, wobei die kinetischen Konstanten des Modells den Messungen des Fallout-Plutoniums entnommen werden. Solch ein konsistentes Modell fuer das Fallout-Plutonium eignet sich u.a. fuer die Analyse der Migrationspfade von industriell freigesetztem Plutonium. In dieser Arbeit wird die Methodik zur Analyse von Boxenmodellen weiterentwickelt. Die Zusammenhaenge zwischen Boxenmodellen und Traceranalyse werden diskutiert. Die numerischen Rechnungen, die sich auf mitteleuropaeische Breiten beziehen, haben illustrativen Charakter. (orig.)Original Title
Analyse der Migrationspfade von Plutonium in einem terrestrischen Oekosystem
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Oct 1980; 51 p
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AbstractAbstract
[en] Variables inspection can be used in the attribute mode, if an assumed mode, if an assumed falsification of reported data is sufficiently small so as to escape detection with the attribute tester, i.e., a variable tester can be used in order to make a qualitative statement. The efficiency of such a procedure can be determined if the statistical properties of the tester are known. In this paper first, for one class of material data the probability of detection is determined as function of the total number of item data to be verified, inspector's sample size, fraction of falsified data and false alarm probability, both for drawing without and with replacement. For the latter case and given total falsification, the minimal, i.e. guaranteed probability of detection is determined. Second, for several classes of material data it is shown under some simplifying assumptions in which way the available inspection effort has to be distributed optimally on the various classes. Finally, some remarks are made about the use of two different measurement techniques for the verification of data of one class of material
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26. annual meeting of the Institute of Nuclear Materials Management; Albuquerque, NM (USA); 21-24 Jul 1985; CONF-850765--
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AbstractAbstract
[en] In the beginning of nuclear material safeguards, emphasis was placed on safe detection of diversion of nuclear material. Later, the aspect of timely detection became equally important. Since there is a trade-off between these two objectives, the question of an appropriate compromise was raised. In this paper, a decision theoretical framework is presented in which the objectives of the two players, inspector and inspectee, are expressed in terms of general utility functions. Within this framework, optimal safeguards strategies are defined, and furthermore, conditions are formulated under which the optimization criteria corresponding to the objectives mentioned above can be justified
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