[en] Prediction of seasonal epidemics have been widely treated in the medical literature, with various methods to forecast the future cases of a given disease, when it’s about infectious diseases: compartmental methods that forecast the number of persons at each state of the epidemic (susceptible, infected, resistant) are used (1), as well as methods based on time series (ARMA ,ARCH,…)(2), this last method can be successful with large sample of data, assuming their normal distribution. Here, we propose to test time series for count data when the continuous time series are not adapted to predict health activity. The aim of this work is to predict the number of hospital admissions of future weeks at local scale, using methods for integer-valued time series: INAR(p) and INGARCH(p,q) methods(3– 5), we have also test the autoregressive methods for continuous data.

[en] This paper addresses the problem of finding appropriate method for analysis of non-stationary time series with complex trends and possibly with distinct periodic components in power spectrum. A well established Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MDFA) combined with Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) used on several artificial examples to demonstrate the capabilities of the method. In this combined method SSA is used for nonparametric periodic components extraction and for adaptive automatic nonparametric trend extraction.

[en] Thesis presentations have been organised in sessions which respectively addressed issues related to radiation safety, and to environment and health (urban atmosphere, dry deposition of aerosols, therapeutic benefit of an injection of mesenchymal stem cells, colorectal lesions, role of toll-like receptors (or TLR) in immune orientations induced by an abdominal irradiation. Plenary sessions also addressed these issues. Then sessions addressed issues related to parallel effects in low doses, to the parallel modelling of materials, to containment and aerosols, to neutron spectrometry and dosimetry. Some parallel sessions addressed issues related to geosphere, to severe accidents and fires. A plenary session addressed the Fukushima accident, the related R and D, and future investment. Poster sessions addressed several topics: safety (fire, containment, neutronics, civil engineering, methods), and radiation protection (radionuclide metrology, toxicology, radio-biology, dosimetry).