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Caire, Jose; Tholance, Maeva; Tremeac, Yann; Barbusse, Stephane; Bigo, Aurelien; Ducreux, Bertrand-Olivier; Cottignies, Marc; Dewez, Romain; Aymoz, Gilles; Pugliese, Antoine; Bichot, Aurelie; Dore, Nicolas; Bohan, Armelle de; El Khamlichi, Aicha; Almosni, Jeremie; Mornas, Aurelien; Vachey, Celine; Puygrenier, Samuel; Branger, Frederic; Chatillon, Thibaud; Cabanne, Isabelle; Susbielle, Nora; Van Reysel, Guillaume; Dufresnoy, Marc; Guittet, Kevin; Lepoutre, Julien; Delort, Thierry; Donzel, Carine; Maitre, Clement; Loubens, Aymeric de; Genin, Leo; Courcelles, Adrien de; Sipsos, Gala; Rebiere, Marie; Jacob, Margaux; Chretien, Julie; Cromer, Guillaume; Fiatte, Frederic; Benevent, Robin; Rayssac, Gilles-Laurent; Millet, Alexandre; Bel, Laurene; Juillet, Claire; Boone, Frederic; Andre, Jean-Marc; Brimont, Laura; Saujot, Mathieu; Simatos, Florian; Mugnier, Hugo; Fontane, Jerome; Delbecq, Scott; Planes, Thomas; Crozet, Yves; Carpentier, Gregoire; Del Bucchia, Olivier
Agence de la transition ecologique - Ademe, 20, avenue du Gresille, BP 90 406, 49004 Angers Cedex 01 (France)2022
Agence de la transition ecologique - Ademe, 20, avenue du Gresille, BP 90 406, 49004 Angers Cedex 01 (France)2022
AbstractAbstract
[en] The objective of this study is to analyse different ecological transition paths of the aviation sector, on a national scale, contributing to France carbon neutrality objective for 2050. French air traffic has been rising sharply, particularly since 1990, due to the significant increase in international flights. According to industry forecasts, this trend is expected to continue. The air transport sector is a growth lever for the French and global economy, as well as a generator of numerous direct and indirect jobs. However, this growth of French air traffic has led to an increase in the sector's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (+85 % between 1990 and 2019), as well as other nuisances (air pollution, noise), despite the progress made in terms of energy efficiency of aircraft. The study considers five categories of levers of decarbonization: increasing load factors, increasing energy efficiency, reducing carbon intensity of energy consumed, modal shift and reducing level of traffic. Three contrasting low-carbon transition scenarios have been developed: - Scenario A ('technological breakthrough'), in which major investments are made in aeronautical research and construction as well as in the production of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs), to maintain traffic growth. - Scenario B ('traffic moderation') mobilises both sobriety measures to stabilize the level of air traffic and an significant development in the use of SAFs, aiming to minimise cumulative emissions between 2020 and 2050 and to significantly reduce emissions by 2030. - Scenario C ('all levers') mobilises all the levers to a lesser degree than in the first two scenarios, to reduce the risks and costs associated with the use of breakthrough technologies, as well as the socio-economic impacts of traffic reduction measures. The above three scenarios are complemented by a scenario O ('baseline'), in which air traffic and technological progress develop according to current trends, without reducing air traffic or deploying innovative solutions. The development of the above scenarios and the study of their climatic, environmental, and economic impacts allow many lessons to be drawn
[fr]
L'objectif de cette etude est d'analyser differentes pistes de transition ecologique du secteur aerien, a l'echelle nationale, permettant de contribuer a l'objectif de neutralite carbone que la France s'est fixe a l'horizon 2050. Le trafic aerien francais est en forte hausse, notamment depuis 1990, du fait d'une augmentation importante des vols internationaux. Selon les previsions du secteur, cette tendance devrait se poursuivre. Le secteur aerien est Un levier de croissance pour l'economie francaise et mondiale, ainsi qu'un generateur de nombreux emplois directs et indirects. Cependant, cette croissance du trafic aerien francais a entraine une augmentation des emissions de gaz a effet de serre (GES) du secteur (+85 % de 1990 a 2019), ainsi que d'autres nuisances (pollution de l'air, bruit), malgre les progres realises en termes d'efficacite energetique des avions. L'etude considere cinq categories de leviers de 'decarbonation': l'augmentation du remplissage, l'amelioration de l'efficacite energetique, la baisse de l'intensite carbone de l'energie consommee, le report modal et la reduction du niveau de trafic. Trois scenarios contrastes de transition bas-carbone ont ete elabores: - Le scenario A ('rupture technologique'), dans lequel des investissements importants sont realises dans la recherche et construction aeronautique ainsi que dans la production de Carburants d'Aviation Durables (CAD), et ce, afin de conserver une croissance du trafic aerien; - Le scenario B ('moderation du trafic'), qui mobilise a la fois des mesures de sobriete pour stabiliser le niveau de trafic aerien et Un developpement important de l'usage des CAD, visant a minimiser les emissions cumulees entre 2020 et 2050 et a reduire nettement les emissions d'ici 2030; - Le scenario C ('tous leviers'), qui mobilise l'ensemble des leviers a Un degre moindre que dans les deux premiers scenarios, et ce afin de reduire les risques et les couts lies au recours a des technologies de rupture, ainsi que les impacts socio-economiques des mesures de moderation du trafic. Ces trois scenarios sont completes par le scenario 0 ('reference'), dans lequel le trafic aerien et les progres technologiques se developpent selon les tendances actuelles, sans moderation du trafic ni deploiement de solutions innovantes. L'elaboration des scenarios ainsi que l'etude de leurs impacts climatiques, environnementaux et economiques permet de tirer de nombreux enseignementsOriginal Title
Elaboration de scenarios de transition ecologique du secteur aerien - Sept 2022, Rapport final + Synthese + Annexes au rapport final
Primary Subject
Secondary Subject
Source
Sep 2022; 300 p; 236 refs.; Available from the INIS Liaison Officer for France, see the INIS website for current contact and E-mail addresses
Record Type
Miscellaneous
Report Number
Country of publication
AIR POLLUTION ABATEMENT, AIR TRANSPORT, CARBON DIOXIDE, CARBON FOOTPRINT, CARBON NEUTRALITY, ECONOMIC IMPACT, ENERGY EFFICIENCY, ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS, ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, FUEL SUBSTITUTION, INVESTMENT, NATIONAL ENERGY PLANS, PROJECTION SERIES, SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS, TECHNOLOGY UTILIZATION, TRAFFIC CONTROL
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