[en] Which contribution can the increase of energy efficiency achieve in the industry energy for the energy transition in Germany? To answer this question a model-based analysis of existing energy efficiency potentials of the energy-intensive industries is performed, which account for about 70% of the total energy demand of the industry. Based on this industry for each sector are instruments proposed for the implementation of the calculated potential and to overcome the existing barriers.

[en] Artelys and its partners Fraunhofer ISI has been selected by GIZ to undertake a study on the key options for decarbonisation of energy use in Southeast Asia. This report assesses the current use of fossil fuels in the region and its evolution perspectives, with a particular focus on fossil gas and related infrastructure elements. The study then proceeds with the evaluation of the options to decarbonize energy use across the power system, industry, transport, and residential sectors in Southeast Asia, highlighting the specific challenges for the region

[en] The report on the meeting of the experts on modeling of the climate protection scenario 2050 summarizes the substantial results: 80-90% reduction the greenhouse gas emissions means a reduction of fossil energy carriers by up to 98%. The electricity generation industry has to provide most of the reduction since esp. agriculture cannot reduce the CO2 emissions. The amount of renewable energy for electricity production has to increase to about 95%. The economic analysis shows that a strategy of energy efficiency and electricity production from renewable energy sources plus product innovation is a no-regret strategy that will be advantageous for Germany in a long-term.

[en] This paper aims to unravel the effects of both policies and autonomous developments driving the changes of final energy consumption for the European Union (EU28) and its member states complemented with an in-depth analysis of two EU member states, Germany and Poland, for the period of 2000 to 2015 by the logarithmic mean Divisia index methodology (LMDI). We examine the influences on the changes in final energy consumption for each of the five main demand sectors at aggregated level and at a more detailed level of residential end-uses, transport modes and industrial sub-sectors. With the second level, we provide insights into the effects of policies from a European and national perspective. Our analysis shows that final energy consumption in the EU28 is primarily influenced by an increase in energy efficiency in industry followed by households. For the latter, the energy savings were mainly realised in space heating. The main counteracting drivers were increasing economic activity and the rising demand for higher comfort and social factors, such as a declining household size. Germany shows relatively low energy efficiency improvements in industry, but strong energy efficiency gains in households followed by transport. Poland’s transport, however, is responsible for a strong increase in final energy consumption mainly through increased activity, while here the sector industry—despite strong effects of increased activity—in total shows a significant reduction in energy consumption through energy efficiency improvements.

[en] Europe's 2020 greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction target consists of two sub-targets: one for the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) sectors and one for the non-ETS sectors. The non-ETS target covers CO₂ emissions in buildings, transport and non-ETS industry and non-CO₂ GHG emissions. The non-ETS target is known as Europe's Effort Sharing Decision. This article discusses the GDP per capita method the European Commission has applied in setting Member State specific targets for the non-ETS ('the effort sharing') and shows that it results in an imbalanced reduction effort among the Member States. It turns out that the principal mechanism of the GDP per capita method (low-GDP countries get room to catch up with high-GDP countries by allowing them to increase emissions) is obscured by the non-CO₂ GHGs, the baseline projections of which are highly policy-induced and not correlated with the growth of GDP per capita. We propose an alternative method that (1) corrects for the policy-induced decrease of non-CO₂ GHG emissions and (2) is based on energy savings potentials. This approach could be used in future target setting for non-ETS sectors - including in the case that the overarching EU-wide target would be strengthened - and would provide a direct support to Europe's energy savings ambitions and policies. - Highlights: → The effort sharing method results in unbalanced targets among EU Member States. → This is due to the weak link between GDP per capita and the policy driven development of non-CO₂ GHGs. → The authors propose to base the effort sharing method on cost-effective energy savings potentials. → This allows Member States with a lower GDP per capita to increase their non-ETS CO₂ emissions. → This provides all Member States with incentives for energy savings.

[en] We analyze the change of energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in China's cement industry and its driving factors over the period 1990–2009 by applying a log-mean Divisia index (LMDI) method. It is based on the typical production process for clinker manufacturing and differentiates among four determining factors: cement output, clinker share, process structure and specific energy consumption per kiln type. The results show that the growth of cement output is the most important factor driving energy consumption up, while clinker share decline, structural shifts mainly drive energy consumption down (similar for CO₂ emissions). These efficiency improvements result from a number of policies which are transforming the entire cement industry towards international best practice including shutting down many older plants and raising the efficiency standards of cement plants. Still, the efficiency gains cannot compensate for the huge increase in cement production resulting from economic growth particularly in the infrastructure and construction sectors. Finally, scenario analysis shows that applying best available technology would result in an additional energy saving potential of 26% and a CO₂ mitigation potential of 33% compared to 2009. - Highlights: ► We analyze the energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in China's cement industry. ► The growth of cement output is the most important driving factor. ► The efficiency policies and industrial standards significantly narrowed the gap. ► Efficiency gains cannot compensate for the huge increase in cement production. ► The potentials of energy-saving of 26% and CO₂ mitigation of 33% exist based on BAT.

[en] We show that renewable energy contributes to Europe's 2020 primary energy savings target. This contribution, which is to a large extent still unknown and not recognized by policy makers, results from the way renewable energy is dealt with in Europe's energy statistics. We discuss the policy consequences and argue that the 'energy savings' occurring from the accounting of renewable energy should not distract attention from demand-side energy savings in sectors such as transport, industry and the built environment. The consequence of such a distraction could be that many of the benefits from demand-side energy savings, for example lower energy bills, increase of the renewable energy share in energy consumption without investing in new renewable capacity, and long-term climate targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by more than 80%, will be missed. Such distraction is not hypothetical since Europe's 2020 renewable energy target is binding whereas the 2020 primary energy savings target is only indicative. - Highlights: → We show that renewable energy contributes to Europe's 2020 primary energy savings target. → This is due to the 100% conversion efficiency for e.g. wind power used in Eurostat statistics. → This policy interaction is not (yet) recognized by European policy makers. → It may result in reduced incentives for realizing demand-side savings and related benefits.

[en] Highlights: • Energy scenario development to 2050 in Europe is still spontaneous and disjoint. • More harmonised approach is proposed to provide higher consistency and transparency. • European countries have different progress in achieving reduction targets 2050. • Interactive scenario development involves key stakeholders (including citizens). • Technological and non-technological aspects (f.e. social acceptance) are important. -- Abstract: This paper proposes an approach to comparing and assessing the policy settings in the European low-carbon energy scenarios. First, it presents the methodology including ten characteristics for scenario assessment: modelling framework (diversity), ambitiousness of the targets 2050, relations with other (European) countries, stakeholder involvement, technology options, non-technological aspects, economic component, usage of scenarios in policy design, intermediate indicators of targets' achievement and revision of scenarios. Further, it uses qualitative and quantitative methods to evaluate energy scenarios developed in six north-west European countries (the Netherlands, Germany, France, Denmark, the UK, Belgium). Finally, conclusions are made concerning the possible ways of scenario design improvement. The analysis has shown that all selected countries have potential for modifying their energy scenarios, which being implemented may help to achieve the joint European targets 2050. Since these countries are socially and economically interrelated, a more harmonised approach to scenario development is needed to be designed and introduced on the EU level. Ten characteristics proposed in this study may serve as an initial input for such harmonisation. The results can be of interest to economists, business and academic representatives, and especially policy makers involved in the long-term energy scenario development on the international, regional and national level.

[en] Paper production is an energy-intensive process and accounted for about 9% of industrial energy demand in Germany in 2008. There have only been slow improvements in energy efficiency in the paper industry over the past twenty years. Policies can accelerate the progress made, but knowledge about the remaining efficiency potentials and their costs is a prerequisite for their success. We assess 17 process technologies to improve energy efficiency in the German pulp and paper industry up to 2035 using a techno-economic approach. These result in a saving potential of 34 TJ/a for fuels and 12 TJ/a for electricity, which equal 21% and 16% of fuel and electricity demand, respectively. The energy savings can be translated into mitigated CO₂ emissions of 3 Mt. The larger part of this potential is found to be cost-effective from a firm's perspective. The most influential technologies are heat recovery in paper mills and the use of innovative paper drying technologies. In conclusion, significant saving potentials are still available, but are limited if we assume that current paper production processes will not change radically. Further savings would be available if the system boundaries of this study were extended to e.g. include cross-cutting technologies. -- Highlights: ► We analyze energy efficiency potentials in the German paper industry. ► 17 specific process technologies are analyzed using a bottom-up approach. ► We find energy saving potential of 21% for fuels and 16% for electricity by 2035. ► The resulting annual CO₂ mitigation amounts to about 3 Mt CO_2-eq. ► The larger part of this potential is cost-effective from a firm perspective.

[en] The idea of generating electricity in North Africa using concentrating solar thermal power (CSP) has been around for some time now but has recently gained momentum through the Mediterranean Solar Plan (MSP) and the formation of the Desertec Industrial Initiative. This paper argues that while the large-scale deployment of CSP in North Africa does not seem economically attractive for either European or African institutions or countries on their own at present, combining domestic use and electricity exports could be profitable for both parties. A detailed economic portfolio covering both solar and wind power plants can achieve competitive price levels, which would accelerate the diffusion of solar technology in North Africa. This portfolio could be financed partially by exporting electricity from solar thermal plants in North Africa via HVDC interconnections to European consumers. Sharing the costs in this way makes it possible to generate solar electricity for the domestic market at a reasonable cost. Some of the electricity produced from the solar power plants and wind parks in North Africa is sold on European energy markets in the form of a long-term contracted solar-wind portfolio, which would qualify for support from the financial incentive schemes of the European Member States (e.g. feed-in tariffs). This transfer of green electricity could help to meet the targets for energy from renewable energy sources (RES) in the EU Member States as the new EU Directive of 2009 opened the European electricity market to imports from third states. - Research highlights: → This paper describes a feasible approach to financing a larger deployment of CSP in North Africa. → The proposed portfolio includes local consumption and electricity export to Europe. → Bundling wind with solar power as a business model for exporting solar electricity. → Prices of the solar-wind mix are competitive with other renewable energy sources. → Scenario outlook for the North African CSP market in six countries.