[en] A growing number of academic studies and international organizations reports have noticed an increasing dependency of new energy technologies on a specific class of natural resources often called minor metals. For several years, worries about economic availability of these metals in order to realize the energy transition have appeared. This thesis aims at underline the broader risks and constraints involved by general use of these metals in new energy technologies. A first part of this thesis is devoted to theories and indicators related to the depletion of non-renewable resources. This part also shows that minor metals share many characteristics and that they can form a group of metal consistent. In a second part, this thesis addresses the issues linked to the absence of price elasticity for the supply of minor metals due to the byproduct constraint. Another chapter offers an analysis of causes and consequences connected to the absence of futures markets for almost all minor metals. Finally, a last chapter highlights the strong link existing between the energy sector and the metals sectors. This connection is increasing and can create a vicious circle between energies which are less and less concentrated and metals which consume more and more energy due to their depletion. (author)

[en] Highlights: • An estimate of all the available uranium resources has been done. • The estimate of how much uranium can be recovered from phosphate rocks is questioned. • The impact of our downscaled estimate on the deployment of a nuclear fleet is assessed accordingly. - Abstract: Future energy demand scenarios elaborated by international organisations tend to be ambitious in terms of the installed nuclear power capacity, particularly when trying to absorb the effects of a growing world population, to account for GDPs and to curb greenhouse gas emissions. Current light water reactors use thermal neutrons and burn uranium (a natural, finite resource), whereas some future Generation IV reactors using fast neutrons (starting with an initial fissile load) will be capable of recycling their own plutonium and already-extracted depleted uranium (self-sufficient or breeder fast reactors). The availability of uranium therefore has a direct impact on the capacity of the reactors that we can build. It is therefore important to have an accurate estimate of the available uranium resources in order to plan for the world’s future nuclear reactor fleet. This paper discusses the correspondence between the resources (uranium and plutonium) and the nuclear power demand as estimated by various international organisations. Furthermore, the estimate of how much uranium can be recovered from phosphate rocks is questioned and the impact of our downscaled estimate on the deployment of a nuclear fleet is assessed accordingly

[en] Increasing attention is being paid to the building sector due to its importance in the climate change debate. In recent years, a growing literature on the price premium paid by consumers to access more energy efficient and sustainable buildings has emerged as a common topic in Hedonic model estimations. In this paper, we aim to provide a summary of this literature by conducting a meta-analysis of more than 50 studies from around the world. In this way, based on a random effects models and weighted OLS robust clustering estimations, we offer an average estimation of the price premium accepted by economic agents (in terms of sale prices) in order to enjoy energy efficient and sustainable buildings. This supports the argument that investing in building refurbishment is worthwhile and economically relevant. However, our data seem to show a major publication bias. Correcting for this bias leads us to halve the original estimation (from 8% to 4%). In addition, we analyze the sources of result dispersion by performing a meta-regression using different moderators (type of publication, bibliometric variables, sample analysis period, econometric method, etc.). We also carry out different statistical tests and use alternative selection criteria in order to check whether our estimations are robust. Finally, we make recommendations for future Hedonic studies as well as for upcoming meta-analyses of the green building premium. (authors)

[en] After having recalled the concepts of net energy and of energy return on investment (EROI), the authors detail the reasons which make practically difficult the use of these notions, even though they appear to be simple and intuitive. They discuss the relationship between EROI and economic prosperity, the necessity to have an energy system with a high EROI to get a high economic growth, and the possibility to define a minimum EROI value at which economic growth is possible or impossible

[en] We use a price-based methodology to assess the global energy-return-on-investment (EROI) of coal, oil, and gas, from the beginning of their reported production (respectively 1800, 1860, and 1890) to 2012. It appears that the EROI of global oil and gas productions reached their maximum values in the 1930's-40's, respectively around 50:1 and 150:1, and have declined subsequently. Furthermore, we suggest that the EROI of global coal production has not yet reached its maximum value. Based on the original work of Dale et al. (2011), we then present a new theoretical dynamic expression of the EROI. Modifications of the original model were needed in order to perform calibrations on each of our price-based historical estimates of coal, oil, and gas global EROI. Theoretical models replicate the fact that maximum EROIs of global oil and gas productions have both already been reached while this is not the case for coal. In a prospective exercise, the models show the pace of the expected EROIs decrease for oil and gas in the coming century. Regarding coal, models are helpful to estimate the value and date of the EROI peak, which will most likely occur between 2025 and 2045, around a value of 95(±15):1. (authors)

[en] We estimate energy expenditure for the US and world economies from 1850 to 2012. Periods of high energy expenditure relative to GDP (from 1850 to 1945), or spikes (1973–74 and 1978–79) are associated with low economic growth rates, and periods of low or falling energy expenditure are associated with high and rising economic growth rates (e.g. 1945–1973). Over the period 1960–2010 for which we have continuous year-to-year data for control variables (capital formation, population, and unemployment rate) we estimate that, statistically, in order to enjoy positive growth, the US economy cannot afford to spend more than 11% of its GDP on energy. Given the current energy intensity of the US economy, this translates in a minimum societal EROI of approximately 11:1 (or a maximum tolerable average price of energy of twice the current level). Granger tests consistently reveal a one way causality running from the level of energy expenditure (as a fraction of GDP) to economic growth in the US between 1960 and 2010. A coherent economic policy should be founded on improving net energy efficiency. This would yield a “double dividend”: increased societal EROI (through decreased energy intensity of capital investment), and decreased sensitivity to energy price volatility. - Highlights: •We estimate energy expenditures as a fraction of GDP for the US, the world (1850–2012), and the UK (1300–2008). •Statistically speaking, the US economy cannot afford to allocate more than 11% of its GDP to energy expenditures in order to have a positive growth rate. •This corresponds to a maximum tolerable average price of energy of twice the current level. •In the same way, US growth is only possible if its primary energy system has at least a minimum EROI of approximately 11:1.

[en] In the present paper we propose a methodology to assess the global EROI of coal, oil, and gas, from the beginning of their reported production (respectively 1800, 1860 and 1890) to 2011. We first estimate on the same time periods the global time series of the energy prices of these different fossil fuels, the monetary return on investment of the energy sector, and the total energy intensity of the economy. These preliminary results allow us to estimate the historical global EROI of coal, oil and gas productions, and the historical EROI of the global primary fossil energy sector. We find that the maximum EROI of global oil and gas productions have respectively reached the values of 73:1 in 1931 and 200:1 in 1945, which is in line with previous studies that had hypothesized such results. Furthermore, we suggest that the EROI of global coal production has not yet reached its maximum value and that marginal gains are still to be expected in this sector thanks to coming technological improvement. We then present a new theoretical dynamic expression of the EROI of a given energy resource as a function of its cumulated production based on the original work of Dale et al. (2011). Modifications of the original model were needed in order to be able to perform calibrations on each of our price-based historical estimates of coal, oil, and gas global EROI. The calibrations of the theoretical models confirm that the maximum EROI of global oil and gas productions have both already been reached in the 1940' around 60±15 and 180±20 respectively. We then use the theoretical EROI models in a prospective exercise and found that they give very consistent results for oil and gas since their maximum EROI is already passed. Regarding coal, we obtain more different outputs. Even if it is impossible to give a really precise estimation, we think it can be fairly postulated that the maximum coal EROI will occur between 2020 and 2045, around a value of 110(±20). (authors)

[en] In the present paper we relate the recent estimations of the historical (1800-2011) global EROI of fossil fuels production performed by Court and Fizaine (2015) to the tremendous increase in Gross World Production that the global economy has encountered during the same period. We first show that on this entire period of study, there is a power inverse relationship that exists between the average price of aggregated fossil energy and its EROI. More precisely, we find that this long-term relationship is constituted of short-term relations that shift over time. We interpret these shifts as short-term cycles of EROI decrease/price increase/innovation to higher EROI. Furthermore, on the more restricted 1950-2011 time period on which we have continuous year-to-year data, we find a clear correlation between the EROI level of aggregated fossil energy and the growth rate of the Gross World Production (GWP). With the same data, we are also able to show that in order to have a positive growth rate, the global economy cannot afford to allocate more than 15% of its GWP to energy expenditures. In other words, this also means that considering the current energy intensity of the global economy, our primary energy system needs to have at least a minimal EROImin of approximately 6.5:1 (that conversely corresponds to a maximum tolerable average price of energy three times higher than current level) in order for the global economy to present a positive growth rate. From these different results, we then propose a business cycle model based on the EROI dynamics. Our study supports the idea that a coherent economic policy should first of all be based on an energy policy consisting in improving the net energy efficiency of the economy. Doing so would lead to a 'triple dividend': an increase of the global economy EROI (through a decrease of the energy intensity of capital investment), a decrease of the sensitiveness of the economy to energy price volatility, and a decrease of GHG emissions associated with fossil energy consumption. (authors)

[en] Two sets of articles addressing issues related to ecological transition are proposed. The first one addresses general aspects and transverse tools related to governance (governance and involved institutions, ecological transition and other transitions), to law (on climate and on the environment), to technology (development of a low tech), to economy (physical risks and adaptation), and to circular economy (main actors, national strategy, limitations, wastes, waste waters). It also addresses aspects related to natural resources, biodiversity, wastes and pollutions (green energies and metals, food, climate and economy, biodiversity) and to climate change (adaptation and resilience, greenhouse gas emissions and energy). The second part more particularly focuses on the importance of decision processes at a territorial level. This comprises a global approach (safety for ecological transitions within a digital era, sustainable development, ethics and standards), and aspects related to the energy policy, to adaptation policy and to mitigation policy, to economy and to a territorial approach

[en] After an opening speech on the issue of energy transition and mineral resources, the contributions of this seminar first addressed French initiatives and policies, and the concerned sectors: scenarios of energy transition in France and associated scenarios (deployment of renewable energies, of electric mobility, and so on), overview of the different industrial sectors concerned by energy transition and economic and technological stakes associated with mineral resources for these sectors, French policies and initiatives regarding mineral resources. The second part addressed needs and stakes: current knowledge about needs in mineral resources associated with energy transition, overview of stakes associated with the offer in raw materials, focus on economic and energetic stakes associated with metals.