[en] Which contribution can the increase of energy efficiency achieve in the industry energy for the energy transition in Germany? To answer this question a model-based analysis of existing energy efficiency potentials of the energy-intensive industries is performed, which account for about 70% of the total energy demand of the industry. Based on this industry for each sector are instruments proposed for the implementation of the calculated potential and to overcome the existing barriers.

[en] Turkey’s energy demand has been growing by 4.5% per year over the last decade. As a reaction to this, the Turkish government has implemented the Strategic Energy Efficiency Plan (SEEP), which provides a guideline for energy efficiency policies in all sectors. The aim of this study is to analyse the potential of the SEEP on final energy demand in the Turkish residential sector until 2030. Three scenarios are developed based on a detailed bottom-up modelling approach using a vintage stock model to simulate the energy demand of heating systems and appliances. The results show a decreasing final energy demand in the reference scenario from about 944 PJ in 2008 to 843 PJ in 2030. This reflects a structural break, which is mainly caused by a high building demolition rate and low efficiency in the existing building stock. The SEEP achieves additional savings of around 111 PJ until 2030, while a scenario with even higher efficiency shows further savings of 91 PJ. Electricity demand increases in all scenarios – mainly due to growing ownership rates of appliances. The SEEP will achieve around 10 TWh of electricity savings in 2030 compared to the reference scenario, mainly through more ambitious end-use standards

[en] This REFOPLAN project analyses the technologies for the future CO${}_2$-neutral generation of process heat for 13 industrial sectors. This means replacing fossil fuels with energy carriers based on renewable energy sources such as electricity or PtG/PtL fuels including hydrogen or synthetic methane. The study takes a broad approach and covers the metal and mineral industries as well as steam generation as a cross-sector technology. The study examines the use of CO${}_2$-neutral alternative technologies for 34 selected applications such as the "continuous heating of flat or long steel". The study looks at both the current state of the art and future potentials of the various CO${}_2$-neutral alternative technologies. The aim is to take a holistic view, taking into account technical, economic and ecological criteria. In addition, recommendations are derived as elements of an overarching strategy for the transformation towards CO${}_2$-neutral process heating.

[en] This report presents marginal abatement cost curves (MACCs) for greenhouse gas emissions in the stationary part of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) for the years 2030 and 2040, covering all 31 countries participating in the EU ETS (including the UK) and all relevant activities/sectors with the exception of the aviation sector. The development of the EU ETS-specific MACCs was based on a system of two models: Enertile, a model to optimise the European electricity system and FORECAST-Industry, a bottom-up simulation model for the industrial sectors including refineries. In addition to a base scenario, three sensitivity analyses were carried out to verify the robustness of the results. This report contains the developed MACCs, the results of the sensitivity analyses as well as a detailed description of the models used and assumptions made to allow the interpretation of the MACCs. In addition, the results were compared with other studies and the main methodological and substantive challenges in the development of MACCs are discussed.

[en] This document presents the final report of the project ''Efficiency and effectiveness of the EU ETS - extended analyses (EU-ETS 6)''. The project aims to deliver further contributions for the evaluation of the efficiency and effectiveness of the European Emission Trading System (ETS). In doing so, the project provides advice to the Federal Environmental Agency (UBA), as implementing authority, and the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety (BMUB) as the competent ministry, on methodological aspects of ex-post assessments and lessons learned for ex-ante analyses. The project builds on a previous study, titled ''Evaluierung und Weiterentwicklung des EU-Emissionshandels (EU-ETS- 5)''. The current project focusses on methodological approaches for an ex-post assessment of the effects of the EU ETS and introduces different ''Tier'' levels reflecting different scopes of complexity. The core of each analysis is to compare estimated abatement costs under the EU-ETS with cost estimates for a fictitious ''alternative policy scenario'' that aims to achieve the same total abatement but does not provide the flexibility of trading allowances. Case studies are conducted based on marginal abatement cost curves derived from a partial equilibrium model and from bottom-up models for the industry and the electricity sector respectively. Besides the different modelling approaches, the case studies differ essentially in the design and assumptions chosen with respect to the i) counterfactual scenarios, ii) alternative policy scenario, iii) sector detail, iv) abatement costs and CO₂-prices and v) temporal perspective. An efficiency analysis of the ETS always implies a trade-off between breadth and depths of the analysis. Yet, the case study analyses all reveal efficiency gains for the ETS compared to an alternative policy. For example, the Tier 2 analysis -covering a medium level of detail - investigated different sector disaggregation and different time frames for the 2^nd trading period and concluded that 15% to 50% of abatement costs were saved within the ETS compared to the alternative policy scenario. Emissions trading thus leads to important efficiency gains according to these estimates.

[en] Highlights: • Feasibility assessment of industrial excess heat, heat pumps, DHC and photovoltaics. • From a socio-economic perspective, DHC with excess heat is the most feasible solution. • Heat pumps with photovoltaics are cost-competitive from a socio-economic perspective. • Policies are required to support RES from a private-economic perspective. Energy demand for heating and cooling constitutes almost 50% of the total energy demand in Europe and strongly depends on fossil fuels. Decarbonising this sector and providing a sustainable supply should be a main goal of climate policy. The technical and economic feasibility of supply options depends strongly on local conditions. The focus of this research is to assess the cost-effectiveness of sustainable heat and cold supply solutions under southern European conditions. We use the city of Matosinhos (Portugal) as an example. The methodology includes estimation of thermal demands and hourly simulation of alternative supply scenarios. The results show that, from a socio-economic perspective, the use of excess heat from a refinery via a DHC network might be the economically most competitive option. In addition, the heat pump system combined with photovoltaics is cost-effective from a socio-economic perspective compared to the status quo if the capital costs of the status quo are also accounted for. This justifies support policies to also make it cost-competitive from a private economic perspective, which it currently is not. Sensitivity analyses were conducted for the most influential factors like capital investment costs, interest rate, and fuel prices.

[en] The cement industry is the second most energy-intensive sector in Taiwan, which underlines the need to understand its potential for energy efficiency improvement. A bottom-up model-based assessment is utilized to conduct a scenario analysis of energy saving opportunities up to the year 2035. The analysis is supported by detailed expert interviews in all cement plants of Taiwan. The simulation results reveal that by 2035, eighteen energy efficient technologies could result in 25% savings for electricity and 9% savings for fuels under the technical diffusion scenario. This potential totally amounts to about 5000 TJ/year, of which 91% can be implemented cost-effectively assuming a discount rate of 10%. Policy makers should support a fast diffusion of these technologies. Additionally, policy makers can tap further saving potentials. First, by decreasing the clinker share, which is currently regulated to a minimum of 95%. Second, by extending the prohibition to build new cement plants by allowing for replacement of existing capacity with new innovative plants in the coming years. Third, by supporting the use of alternative fuels, which is currently still a niche in Taiwan. - Highlights: •We analyze energy efficiency improvement potentials in Taiwan's cement industry. •Eighteen process-specific technologies are analyzed using a bottom-up model. •Our model systematically reflects the diffusion of technologies over time. •We find energy-saving potentials of 25% for electricity and 9% for fuels in 2035. •91% of the energy-saving potentials can be realized cost-effectively.

[en] The diffusion of cost-effective energy-efficiency measures (EEMs) in firms is often surprisingly slow. This phenomenon is usually attributed to a variety of barriers which have been the focus of numerous studies over the last two decades. However, many studies treat EEMs homogenously and assume they have few inherent differences apart from their profitability. We argue that complementing such analyses by considering the characteristics of EEMs in a structured manner can enhance the understanding of EEM adoption. For this purpose, we suggest a classification scheme for EEMs in industry which aims to provide a better understanding of their adoption by industrial firms and to assist in selecting and designing energy-efficiency policies. The suggested classification scheme is derived from the literature on the adoption of EEMs and the related fields including the diffusion of innovations, eco-innovations and advanced manufacturing technology. Our proposed scheme includes 12 characteristics based on the relative advantage, the technical and the information context of the EEM. Applying this classification scheme to six example EEMs demonstrates that it can help to systematically explain why certain EEMs diffuse faster than others. Furthermore, it provides a basis for identifying policies able to increase the rate of adoption. - Highlights: ► The characteristics of energy-efficiency measures critically affect their adoption. ► We propose a classification for energy-efficiency measures in industry. ► It allows to draw conclusions on the adoption likelihood and intensity of barriers. ► As such it provides a basis for policy design and technology analysis.

[en] We analyze the change of energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in China's cement industry and its driving factors over the period 1990–2009 by applying a log-mean Divisia index (LMDI) method. It is based on the typical production process for clinker manufacturing and differentiates among four determining factors: cement output, clinker share, process structure and specific energy consumption per kiln type. The results show that the growth of cement output is the most important factor driving energy consumption up, while clinker share decline, structural shifts mainly drive energy consumption down (similar for CO₂ emissions). These efficiency improvements result from a number of policies which are transforming the entire cement industry towards international best practice including shutting down many older plants and raising the efficiency standards of cement plants. Still, the efficiency gains cannot compensate for the huge increase in cement production resulting from economic growth particularly in the infrastructure and construction sectors. Finally, scenario analysis shows that applying best available technology would result in an additional energy saving potential of 26% and a CO₂ mitigation potential of 33% compared to 2009. - Highlights: ► We analyze the energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in China's cement industry. ► The growth of cement output is the most important driving factor. ► The efficiency policies and industrial standards significantly narrowed the gap. ► Efficiency gains cannot compensate for the huge increase in cement production. ► The potentials of energy-saving of 26% and CO₂ mitigation of 33% exist based on BAT.

[en] This paper empirically investigates factors driving the adoption of energy-efficiency measures by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Our analyses are based on cross-sectional data from SMEs which participated in a German energy audit program between 2008 and 2010. In general, our findings appear robust to alternative model specifications and are consistent with the theoretical and still scarce empirical literature on barriers to energy-efficiency in SMEs. More specifically, high investment costs, which are captured by subjective and objective proxies, appear to impede the adoption of energy-efficiency measures, even if these measures are deemed profitable. Similarly, we find that lack of capital slows the adoption of energy-efficiency measures, primarily for larger investments. Hence, investment subsidies or soft loans (for larger investments) may help accelerating the diffusion of energy-efficiency measures in SMEs. Other barriers were not found to be statistically significant. Finally, our findings provide evidence that the quality of energy audits affects the adoption of energy-efficiency measures. Hence, effective regulation should involve quality standards for energy audits, templates for audit reports or mandatory monitoring of energy audits. - Highlights: ► We empirically analyze barriers to the adoption of energy-efficiency measures in SMEs. ► We focus on firms participating in the German energy audit program for SMEs. ► The program overcomes information related barriers. ► High investment costs still impede the adoption even for profitable measures. ► Low audit quality also impedes the adoption of profitable measures.