[en] We consider the problem of characterization of burst sources detected by the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) using the multi-modal nested sampling algorithm, MultiNest. We use MultiNest as a tool to search for modelled bursts from cosmic string cusps, and compute the Bayesian evidence associated with the cosmic string model. As an alternative burst model, we consider sine-Gaussian burst signals, and show how the evidence ratio can be used to choose between these two alternatives. We present results from an application of MultiNest to the last round of the Mock LISA Data Challenge, in which we were able to successfully detect and characterize all three of the cosmic string burst sources present in the release data set. We also present results of independent trials and show that MultiNest can detect cosmic string signals with signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) as low as ∼7 and sine-Gaussian signals with SNR as low as ∼8. In both cases, we show that the threshold at which the sources become detectable coincides with the SNR at which the evidence ratio begins to favour the correct model over the alternative.

[en] With the anticipated launch of GLAST, the existing X-ray telescopes, and the enhanced capabilities of the new generation of TeV telescopes, developing tools for modeling the variability of high energy sources such as blazars is becoming a high priority. We point out the serious, innate problems one zone synchrotron-self Compton models have in simulating high energy variability. We then present the first steps toward a multi zone model where non-local, time delayed Synchrotron-self Compton electron energy losses are taken into account. By introducing only one additional parameter, the length of the system, our code can simulate variability properly at Compton dominated stages, a situation typical of flaring systems. As a first application, we were able to reproduce variability similar to that observed in the case of the puzzling 'orphan' TeV flares that are not accompanied by a corresponding X-ray flare

[en] With the discovery of the binary black hole coalescences GW150914 and GW151226, the era of gravitational-wave astrophysics has started. Gravitational-wave signals emitted by compact binary coalescences will be detected in large number by LIGO and Virgo in the coming months and years. Much about compact binaries is still uncertain, including some key details about their formation channels. The two scenarios which are typically considered, common envelope evolution and dynamical capture, result in different distributions for the orientation of the black hole spins. In particular, common envelope evolution is expected to be highly efficient in aligning spins with the orbital angular momentum. In this paper we simulate catalogs of gravitational-wave signals in which a given fraction of events comes from common envelope evolution, and has spins nearly aligned with the orbital angular momentum. We show how the fraction of aligned systems can be accurately estimated using Bayesian parameter estimation, with 1 σ uncertainties of the order of 10% after 100–200 sources are detected. (letter)

[en] Nested sampling is a technique for efficiently computing the probability of a data set under a particular hypothesis, also called the Bayesian Evidence or Marginal Likelihood, and for evaluating the posterior. MULTINEST is a multi-modal nested sampling algorithm which has been designed to efficiently explore and characterize posterior probability surfaces containing multiple secondary solutions. We have applied the MULTINEST algorithm to a number of problems in gravitational wave data analysis. In this article, we describe the algorithm and present results for several applications of the algorithm to analysis of mock LISA data. We summarise recently published results for a test case in which we searched for two non-spinning black hole binary merger signals in simulated LISA data. We also describe results obtained with MULTINEST in the most recent round of the Mock LISA Data Challenge (MLDC), in which the algorithm was used to search for and characterise both spinning supermassive black hole binary inspirals and bursts from cosmic string cusps. In all these applications, the algorithm found the correct number of signals and efficiently recovered the posterior probability distribution. Moreover, in most cases the waveform corresponding to the best a-posteriori parameters had an overlap in excess of 99% with the true signal.

[en] To draw inferences about gamma-ray burst (GRB) source populations based on Swift observations, it is essential to understand the detection efficiency of the Swift burst alert telescope (BAT). This study considers the problem of modeling the Swift/BAT triggering algorithm for long GRBs, a computationally expensive procedure, and models it using machine learning algorithms. A large sample of simulated GRBs from Lien et al. is used to train various models: random forests, boosted decision trees (with AdaBoost), support vector machines, and artificial neural networks. The best models have accuracies of ≳97% (≲3% error), which is a significant improvement on a cut in GRB flux, which has an accuracy of 89.6% (10.4% error). These models are then used to measure the detection efficiency of Swift as a function of redshift z, which is used to perform Bayesian parameter estimation on the GRB rate distribution. We find a local GRB rate density of $n_0\sim <!--\; ???\; -->{0.48}_{-<!--\; ???\; -->0.23}^{+0.41}{\mathrm{G}\mathrm{p}\mathrm{c}}^{-<!--\; ???\; -->3}{\mathrm{y}\mathrm{r}}^{-<!--\; ???\; -->1}$ with power-law indices of $n_1\sim <!--\; ???\; -->{1.7}_{-<!--\; ???\; -->0.5}^{+0.6}$ and $n_2\sim <!--\; ???\; -->-<!--\; ???\; -->{5.9}_{-<!--\; ???\; -->0.1}^{+5.7}$ for GRBs above and below a break point of $z_1\sim <!--\; ???\; -->{6.8}_{-<!--\; ???\; -->3.2}^{+2.8}$. This methodology is able to improve upon earlier studies by more accurately modeling Swift detection and using this for fully Bayesian model fitting.

[en] Advanced ground-based gravitational-wave (GW) detectors begin operation imminently. Their intended goal is not only to make the first direct detection of GWs, but also to make inferences about the source systems. Binary neutron-star mergers are among the most promising sources. We investigate the performance of the parameter-estimation (PE) pipeline that will be used during the first observing run of the Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (aLIGO) in 2015: we concentrate on the ability to reconstruct the source location on the sky, but also consider the ability to measure masses and the distance. Accurate, rapid sky localization is necessary to alert electromagnetic (EM) observatories so that they can perform follow-up searches for counterpart transient events. We consider PE accuracy in the presence of non-stationary, non-Gaussian noise. We find that the character of the noise makes negligible difference to the PE performance at a given signal-to-noise ratio. The source luminosity distance can only be poorly constrained, since the median 90% (50%) credible interval scaled with respect to the true distance is 0.85 (0.38). However, the chirp mass is well measured. Our chirp-mass estimates are subject to systematic error because we used gravitational-waveform templates without component spin to carry out inference on signals with moderate spins, but the total error is typically less than ${10}^{-<!--\; ???\; -->3}{M}_{\odot <!--\; ???\; -->}$. The median 90% (50%) credible region for sky localization is $\sim <!--\; ???\; -->600{\mathrm{d}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{g}}^2$ ($\sim <!--\; ???\; -->150{\mathrm{d}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{g}}^2$), with 3% (30%) of detected events localized within $100{\mathrm{d}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{g}}^2.$ Early aLIGO, with only two detectors, will have a sky-localization accuracy for binary neutron stars of hundreds of square degrees; this makes EM follow-up challenging, but not impossible.

[en] We anticipate the first direct detections of gravitational waves (GWs) with Advanced LIGO and Virgo later this decade. Though this groundbreaking technical achievement will be its own reward, a still greater prize could be observations of compact binary mergers in both gravitational and electromagnetic channels simultaneously. During Advanced LIGO and Virgo's first two years of operation, 2015 through 2016, we expect the global GW detector array to improve in sensitivity and livetime and expand from two to three detectors. We model the detection rate and the sky localization accuracy for binary neutron star (BNS) mergers across this transition. We have analyzed a large, astrophysically motivated source population using real-time detection and sky localization codes and higher-latency parameter estimation codes that have been expressly built for operation in the Advanced LIGO/Virgo era. We show that for most BNS events, the rapid sky localization, available about a minute after a detection, is as accurate as the full parameter estimation. We demonstrate that Advanced Virgo will play an important role in sky localization, even though it is anticipated to come online with only one-third as much sensitivity as the Advanced LIGO detectors. We find that the median 90% confidence region shrinks from ∼500 deg² in 2015 to ∼200 deg² in 2016. A few distinct scenarios for the first LIGO/Virgo detections emerge from our simulations.

[en] Inspiraling binary neutron stars (BNSs) are expected to be one of the most significant sources of gravitational-wave signals for the new generation of advanced ground-based detectors. We investigate how well we could hope to measure properties of these binaries using the Advanced LIGO detectors, which began operation in September 2015. We study an astrophysically motivated population of sources (binary components with masses $1.2M_{\odot <!--\; ???\; -->}\text{--}1.6M_{\odot <!--\; ???\; -->}$ and spins of less than 0.05) using the full LIGO analysis pipeline. While this simulated population covers the observed range of potential BNS sources, we do not exclude the possibility of sources with parameters outside these ranges; given the existing uncertainty in distributions of mass and spin, it is critical that analyses account for the full range of possible mass and spin configurations. We find that conservative prior assumptions on neutron-star mass and spin lead to average fractional uncertainties in component masses of ∼16%, with little constraint on spins (the median 90% upper limit on the spin of the more massive component is ∼0.7). Stronger prior constraints on neutron-star spins can further constrain mass estimates but only marginally. However, we find that the sky position and luminosity distance for these sources are not influenced by the inclusion of spin; therefore, if LIGO detects a low-spin population of BNS sources, less computationally expensive results calculated neglecting spin will be sufficient for guiding electromagnetic follow-up.

[en] The Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) discovered gravitational waves (GWs) from a binary black hole merger in 2015 September and may soon observe signals from neutron star mergers. There is considerable interest in searching for their faint and rapidly fading electromagnetic (EM) counterparts, though GW position uncertainties are as coarse as hundreds of square degrees. Because LIGO’s sensitivity to binary neutron stars is limited to the local universe, the area on the sky that must be searched could be reduced by weighting positions by mass, luminosity, or star formation in nearby galaxies. Since GW observations provide information about luminosity distance, combining the reconstructed volume with positions and redshifts of galaxies could reduce the area even more dramatically. A key missing ingredient has been a rapid GW parameter estimation algorithm that reconstructs the full distribution of sky location and distance. We demonstrate the first such algorithm, which takes under a minute, fast enough to enable immediate EM follow-up. By combining the three-dimensional posterior with a galaxy catalog, we can reduce the number of galaxies that could conceivably host the event by a factor of 1.4, the total exposure time for the Swift X-ray Telescope by a factor of 2, the total exposure time for a synoptic optical survey by a factor of 2, and the total exposure time for a narrow-field optical telescope by a factor of 3. This encourages us to suggest a new role for small field of view optical instruments in performing targeted searches of the most massive galaxies within the reconstructed volumes.

[en] This is a supplement to the Letter of Singer et al., in which we demonstrated a rapid algorithm for obtaining joint 3D estimates of sky location and luminosity distance from observations of binary neutron star mergers with Advanced LIGO and Virgo. We argued that combining the reconstructed volumes with positions and redshifts of possible host galaxies can provide large-aperture but small field of view instruments with a manageable list of targets to search for optical or infrared emission. In this Supplement, we document the new HEALPix-based file format for 3D localizations of gravitational-wave transients. We include Python sample code to show the reader how to perform simple manipulations of the 3D sky maps and extract ranked lists of likely host galaxies. Finally, we include mathematical details of the rapid volume reconstruction algorithm.