[en] Once upon a time, predictions for the accuracy of inference on gravitational-wave signals relied on computationally inexpensive but often imprecise techniques. Recently, the approach has shifted to actual inference on noisy signals with complex stochastic Bayesian methods, at the expense of significant computational cost. Here, we argue that it is often possible to have the best of both worlds: a Bayesian approach that incorporates prior information and correctly marginalizes over uninteresting parameters, providing accurate posterior probability distribution functions, but carried out on a simple grid at a low computational cost, comparable to the inexpensive predictive techniques. (paper)

[en] We explore the possibility that GW150914, the binary black hole (BBH) merger recently detected by Advanced LIGO, was formed by gravitational interactions in the core of a dense star cluster. Using models of globular clusters (GCs) with detailed N-body dynamics and stellar evolution, we show that a typical cluster with a mass of $3\times <!--\; ??\; -->{10}^5{M}_{\odot <!--\; ???\; -->}$ to $6\times <!--\; ??\; -->{10}^5{M}_{\odot <!--\; ???\; -->}$ is optimal for forming GW150914-like BBHs that will merge in the local universe. We identify the most likely dynamical processes for forming GW150914 in such a cluster, and we show that the detection of GW150914 is consistent with the masses and merger rates expected for BBHs from GCs. Our results show that dynamical processes provide a significant and well-understood pathway for forming BBH mergers in the local universe. Understanding the contribution of dynamics to the BBH merger problem is a critical step in unlocking the full potential of gravitational-wave astronomy.

[en] The intermediate mass-ratio inspiral of a stellar compact remnant into an intermediate-mass black hole (IMBH) can produce a gravitational wave (GW) signal that is potentially detectable by current ground-based GW detectors (e.g., Advanced LIGO) as well as by planned space-based interferometers (e.g., eLISA). Here, we present results from a direct integration of the post-Newtonian N-body equations of motion describing stellar clusters containing an IMBH and a population of stellar-mass black holes (BHs) and solar-mass stars. We take particular care to simulate the dynamics closest to the IMBH, including post-Newtonian effects up to an order of 2.5. Our simulations show that the IMBH readily forms a binary with a BH companion. This binary is gradually hardened by transient three-body or four-body encounters, leading to frequent substitutions of the BH companion, while the binary’s eccentricity experiences large-amplitude oscillations due to the Lidov–Kozai resonance. We also demonstrate suppression of these resonances by the relativistic precession of the binary orbit. We find an intermediate mass-ratio inspiral in 1 of the 12 cluster models we evolved for ∼100 Myr. This cluster hosts a $100M_{\odot <!--\; ???\; -->}$ IMBH embedded in a population of 32 $10M_{\odot <!--\; ???\; -->}$ BH and 32,000 $1M_{\odot <!--\; ???\; -->}$ stars. At the end of the simulation, after ∼100 Myr of evolution, the IMBH merges with a BH companion. The IMBH–BH binary inspiral starts in the eLISA frequency window ($\gtrsim <!--\; ???\; -->1\mathrm{m}\mathrm{H}\mathrm{z}$) when the binary reaches an eccentricity $1-<!--\; ???\; -->e\simeq <!--\; ???\; -->{10}^{-<!--\; ???\; -->3}$. After $\simeq <!--\; ???\; -->{10}^5$ yr the binary moves into the LIGO frequency band with a negligible eccentricity. We comment on the implications for GW searches, with a possible detection within the next decade.

[en] Stellar triples with massive stellar components are common and can lead to sequential binary black hole mergers. Here we outline the evolution toward these sequential mergers and explore these events in the context of gravitational-wave astronomy and the pair-instability mass gap. We find that binary black hole mergers in the pair-instability mass gap can be of triple origin and therefore are not exclusively formed in dense dynamical environments. We discuss the sequential merger scenario in the context of the most massive gravitational-wave sources detected to date: GW170729 and GW190521. We propose that the progenitor of GW170729 is a low-metallicity field triple. We support the premise that GW190521 could not have been formed in the field. We conclude that triple stellar evolution is fundamental to the understanding of gravitational-wave sources and likely other energetic transients as well.

[en] Advanced ground-based gravitational-wave (GW) detectors begin operation imminently. Their intended goal is not only to make the first direct detection of GWs, but also to make inferences about the source systems. Binary neutron-star mergers are among the most promising sources. We investigate the performance of the parameter-estimation (PE) pipeline that will be used during the first observing run of the Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (aLIGO) in 2015: we concentrate on the ability to reconstruct the source location on the sky, but also consider the ability to measure masses and the distance. Accurate, rapid sky localization is necessary to alert electromagnetic (EM) observatories so that they can perform follow-up searches for counterpart transient events. We consider PE accuracy in the presence of non-stationary, non-Gaussian noise. We find that the character of the noise makes negligible difference to the PE performance at a given signal-to-noise ratio. The source luminosity distance can only be poorly constrained, since the median 90% (50%) credible interval scaled with respect to the true distance is 0.85 (0.38). However, the chirp mass is well measured. Our chirp-mass estimates are subject to systematic error because we used gravitational-waveform templates without component spin to carry out inference on signals with moderate spins, but the total error is typically less than ${10}^{-<!--\; ???\; -->3}{M}_{\odot <!--\; ???\; -->}$. The median 90% (50%) credible region for sky localization is $\sim <!--\; ???\; -->600{\mathrm{d}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{g}}^2$ ($\sim <!--\; ???\; -->150{\mathrm{d}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{g}}^2$), with 3% (30%) of detected events localized within $100{\mathrm{d}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{g}}^2.$ Early aLIGO, with only two detectors, will have a sky-localization accuracy for binary neutron stars of hundreds of square degrees; this makes EM follow-up challenging, but not impossible.

[en] We anticipate the first direct detections of gravitational waves (GWs) with Advanced LIGO and Virgo later this decade. Though this groundbreaking technical achievement will be its own reward, a still greater prize could be observations of compact binary mergers in both gravitational and electromagnetic channels simultaneously. During Advanced LIGO and Virgo's first two years of operation, 2015 through 2016, we expect the global GW detector array to improve in sensitivity and livetime and expand from two to three detectors. We model the detection rate and the sky localization accuracy for binary neutron star (BNS) mergers across this transition. We have analyzed a large, astrophysically motivated source population using real-time detection and sky localization codes and higher-latency parameter estimation codes that have been expressly built for operation in the Advanced LIGO/Virgo era. We show that for most BNS events, the rapid sky localization, available about a minute after a detection, is as accurate as the full parameter estimation. We demonstrate that Advanced Virgo will play an important role in sky localization, even though it is anticipated to come online with only one-third as much sensitivity as the Advanced LIGO detectors. We find that the median 90% confidence region shrinks from ∼500 deg² in 2015 to ∼200 deg² in 2016. A few distinct scenarios for the first LIGO/Virgo detections emerge from our simulations.

[en] Inspiraling binary neutron stars (BNSs) are expected to be one of the most significant sources of gravitational-wave signals for the new generation of advanced ground-based detectors. We investigate how well we could hope to measure properties of these binaries using the Advanced LIGO detectors, which began operation in September 2015. We study an astrophysically motivated population of sources (binary components with masses $1.2M_{\odot <!--\; ???\; -->}\text{--}1.6M_{\odot <!--\; ???\; -->}$ and spins of less than 0.05) using the full LIGO analysis pipeline. While this simulated population covers the observed range of potential BNS sources, we do not exclude the possibility of sources with parameters outside these ranges; given the existing uncertainty in distributions of mass and spin, it is critical that analyses account for the full range of possible mass and spin configurations. We find that conservative prior assumptions on neutron-star mass and spin lead to average fractional uncertainties in component masses of ∼16%, with little constraint on spins (the median 90% upper limit on the spin of the more massive component is ∼0.7). Stronger prior constraints on neutron-star spins can further constrain mass estimates but only marginally. However, we find that the sky position and luminosity distance for these sources are not influenced by the inclusion of spin; therefore, if LIGO detects a low-spin population of BNS sources, less computationally expensive results calculated neglecting spin will be sufficient for guiding electromagnetic follow-up.