[en] The paper deals with predicting sulphur dioxide emissions generated by power production sector in the Baltic States in period up to year 2020. The economies of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are rapidly growing therefore forecast of emissions related with this occurrence becomes very important. The Ignalina nuclear power plant (INPP), one of the largest in the world, is situated in the region. Two power production scenarios are modelled to investigate changes in power sector's emissions expected as the consequences of the coming closure of Ignalina NPP. Power market was assumed to be common for all three Baltic countries and was modelled by applying the Balmorel model. The planned closure of Ignalina NPP will bring restructuring of Lithuania power production sector and will change also power transmission between countries. Predictive identified the potential of investments for new modern power generation technologies. At the same time modelling results show in both scenarios SO₂ emissions from power production in the Baltic region will increase. The increment of emissions is discussed in the context of meeting requirements of EC Directives. The SO₂ formation in Lithuania power sector may exceed the limits of the EU Council Directive 2001/80/EB therefore the additional measures to control SO₂ emissions have to be investigated. (author)

[en] Three Baltic countries (Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia) and the Russian Kaliningrad region possess similar natural conditions as well as natural resources and are closely related by network of energy systems. Therefore joint research into the potentialities hidden in biomass and combustive waste as alternative fuel and into the related problems of air pollutions has been carried out. Based on the methods worked out by the main coordinator of the research work - the Kaunas University of Technology (Dept. of Env. Engineering) - emission of CO₂, SO₂, CO, NO_x and solid particles at combustion of various fuels have been studied and the energy potential and resource of alternative fuels (different kinds of wood fuel, straw, combustible waste, bio diesel oil, bio ethanol and biogas) have been estimated with regard to each of the mentioned regions. In the paper, possibilities for substitution of the alternative fuels for traditional ones in energy production and transport are discussed and the forecasts as to possible limitations of emissions due to the substitution are given. The work presents the tabulated results of exhaustive calculation of air pollutant formation on the scale of Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and the Kaliningrad region made with due consideration for the current requirements on the primary energy and existing renewable sources of alternative fuel. A separate conclusion is made concerning Lithuania, where the issue of alternative fuels is closely connected with the operation of the Ignalina NPP and its expected decommissioning. (authors)