[en] Highlights: •IDEA collects, organizes, and stores data on appliance features and efficiency. •Data can be gathered for any appliance type on any international market. •IDEA enables new approaches to efficiency deployment and monitoring. •Techniques are developed for cross-market comparison of energy-savings potential. •We find significant cost-effective energy-savings potential from efficiency for Indian and Chinese refrigerators. -- Abstract: Appliance energy-efficiency programs are a central component of many countries’ energy-policy portfolios. A major barrier to optimal implementation of these programs is lack of data to determine market baselines, assess the potential for cost-effective energy savings, and track markets over time to evaluate and verify program impacts. To address this gap, we have developed the International Database of Efficient Appliances (IDEA), a suite of software tools that automatically gathers data that is currently dispersed across various online sources and compiles it into a unified repository of information on efficiency, price, and features for a diversity of appliances and devices in markets around the world. In this article we describe the framework and functionality of IDEA, and we demonstrate its power as a resource for research and policy development related to appliance energy efficiency. Using IDEA data for refrigerators in China and India, we assess the potential for cost-effective energy savings within each market by computing robust indicators that can also be easily compared across different appliances and markets. We find that significant cost-effective savings are available on both markets. We discuss implications for the development of future energy-efficiency deployment programs.

[en] This paper presents the first attempt to quantify the potential impacts of a massive deployment of state-of-the-art energy-efficient technologies in the most energy-consuming economies in the world: the United States, the European Union, China, and India. We first identified the most efficient technologies that are currently available for a wide range of end uses in the residential and industrial sectors. The technologies we selected are either engineered with the best available existing components or are the most promising emerging technologies believed to be producible on a large scale in the near future. Using a bottom-up energy model developed at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, we modeled the most aggressive foreseeable policy that would result in making the best available technologies mandatory by 2015. We estimate that adoption of the best available technologies would avoid 2600 TWh, or about 20% of the projected energy consumption and 1.5 Gt of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030. We believe that this study, which brings engineering knowledge of technologies together with a rigorous energy model, is the most reliable analysis to date of the maximum potential of energy efficiency. - Highlights: • We model technical potential for energy efficiency in four major economies. • We examine best available technologies based on engineering considerations. • We use a bottom-up energy modeling framework to perform national impact analyses. • We find a substantial reduction in energy demand growth in the studied sectors. • Identified savings significantly help stabilizing CO₂ concentration in atmosphere

[en] We describe a cost-benefit spreadsheet analysis tool that provides an evaluation of the net impacts of an appliance standards and labelling (SandL) program. The tool is designed to provide a rough estimate at very low cost to local analysts, while allowing for a more accurate evaluation when detailed local data are available. The methodology takes a bottom-up engineering approach, beginning with appliance-specific engineering parameters relating efficiency improvement and incremental costs associated with specific design technologies. Efficiency improvement afforded by each potential policy option is combined with local appliance use patterns to estimate average annual energy consumption for each appliance. This information is combined with appliance lifetime data and local energy prices to provide a life cycle cost impact assessment at the household level. In addition to household level impacts, the analysis tool forecasts future appliance sales, in order to calculate potential energy savings, consumer financial impacts and carbon emissions reductions at the national level. In order to demonstrate the features of the policy model employed, this poster presents a regional analysis based on the most recent publicly available appliance data. In particular, a set of developing countries in Central America were chosen as an example. Taken as a whole, the Central American results demonstrate the general level of benefit which could be afforded in these countries. Comparison between the countries reveals the key parameters determining the benefit a given country can expect from a standards program

[en] This study uses bottom-up modeling framework in order to quantify potential energy savings and emission reduction impacts from the implementation of energy efficiency programs in the building sector in China. Policies considered include (1) accelerated building codes in residential and commercial buildings, (2) increased penetration of district heat metering and controls, (3) district heating efficiency improvement, (4) building energy efficiency labeling programs and (5) retrofits of existing commercial buildings. Among these programs, we found that the implementation of building codes provide by far the largest savings opportunity, leading to an overall 17% reduction in overall space heating and cooling demand relative to the baseline. Second are energy efficiency labels with 6%, followed by reductions of losses associated with district heating representing 4% reduction and finally, retrofits representing only about a 1% savings. - Highlights: • We use a bottom-up modeling approach to quantify emission reduction from efficiency programs. • Heating and cooling are the main focus of this study. • We find that building codes lead to 17% reduction compare to the baseline. • Other programs analyzed concern district heat, building labeling and retrofits of buildings.

[en] Real prices of major appliances (refrigerators, dishwashers, heating and cooling equipment) have been falling since the late 1970s despite increases in appliance efficiency and other quality variables. This paper demonstrates that historic increases in efficiency over time, including those resulting from minimum efficiency standards, incur smaller price increases than were expected by the Department of Energy (DOE) forecasts made in conjunction with standards. This effect can be explained by technological innovation, which lowers the cost of efficiency, and by market changes contributing to lower markups and economies of scale in production of higher efficiency units. We reach four principal conclusions about appliance trends and retail price setting:1.For the past several decades, the retail price of appliances has been steadily falling while efficiency has been increasing. 2.Past retail price predictions made by the DOE analyses of efficiency standards, assuming constant prices over time, have tended to overestimate retail prices. 3.The average incremental price to increase appliance efficiency has declined over time. DOE technical support documents have typically overestimated this incremental price and retail prices. 4.Changes in retail markups and economies of scale in production of more efficient appliances may have contributed to declines in prices of efficient appliances. (author)

[en] This paper presents an analysis of the cost-effectiveness of high-efficiency appliances in the U.S. residential sector using cost and efficiency data developed as part of the regulatory process of the U.S. Department of Energy's Appliances and Commercial Equipment Standards Program. These data are presented as a case study in the development of an ‘efficiency technology database’ which can be expanded and published as a resource to other researchers and policy makers seeking scenarios that optimize efficiency policies and forecast their likely impacts on energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions. The use of this data to evaluate cost-effectiveness according to a variety of metrics is demonstrated using the example of one refrigerator–freezer product class. Cost-effectiveness is then evaluated in terms of cost of conserved energy for refrigerators, room air conditioners, water heaters, cooking equipment, central air conditioners and gas furnaces. The resulting potential of cost-effective improvement ranges from 1% to 53% of energy savings, with a typical potential of 15–20%. - Highlights: ► We determined the potential for cost-effective efficiency for residential appliances. ► We cover 6 appliance groups using cost of conserved energy as a metric for cost-effectiveness. ► Data are source from the DOE's Appliance and Commercial Equipment Standards Program. ► Between 15% and 20% additional cost-effective efficiency improvement is possible.

[en] Real prices of major appliances (refrigerators, dishwashers, heating and cooling equipment) have been falling since the late 1970s despite increases in appliance efficiency and other quality variables. This paper demonstrates that historic increases in efficiency over time, including those resulting from minimum efficiency standards, incur smaller price increases than were expected by the Department of Energy (DOE) forecasts made in conjunction with standards. This effect can be explained by technological innovation, which lowers the cost of efficiency, and by market changes contributing to lower markups and economies of scale in production of higher efficiency units. We reach four principal conclusions about appliance trends and retail price setting: 1.For the past several decades, the retail price of appliances has been steadily falling while efficiency has been increasing. 2.Past retail price predictions made by the DOE analyses of efficiency standards, assuming constant prices over time, have tended to overestimate retail prices. 3.The average incremental price to increase appliance efficiency has declined over time. DOE technical support documents have typically overestimated this incremental price and retail prices. 4.Changes in retail markups and economies of scale in production of more efficient appliances may have contributed to declines in prices of efficient appliances

[en] The economy of the world's second most populous country continues to grow rapidly, bringing prosperity to a growing middle class while further straining an energy infrastructure already stretched beyond capacity. At the same time, efficiency policy initiatives have gained a foothold in India, and promise to grow in number over the coming years. This paper considers the maximum cost-effective potential of efficiency improvement for key energy-consuming products in the Indian context. The products considered are: household refrigerators, window air conditioners, motors and distribution transformers. Together, these products account for about 27% of delivered electricity consumption in India. The analysis estimates the minimum Life-Cycle Cost option for each product class, according to use patterns and prevailing customer marginal rates in each sector. This option represents an efficiency improvement ranging between 12% and 60%, depending on product class. If this level of efficiency was achieved starting in 2010, we estimate that total electricity consumption in India could be reduced by 4.7% by 2020, saving over 74 million tons of oil equivalent and over 246 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions. Net present financial savings of this efficiency improvement totals 8.1 billion dollars

[en] In 2010, China’s cement output was 1.9 Gt, which accounted for 56% of world cement production. Total carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from Chinese cement production could therefore exceed 1.2 Gt. The magnitude of emissions from this single industrial sector in one country underscores the need to understand the uncertainty of current estimates of cement emissions in China. This paper compares several methodologies for calculating CO₂ emissions from cement production, including the three main components of emissions: direct emissions from the calcination process for clinker production, direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and indirect emissions from electricity consumption. This paper examines in detail the differences between common methodologies for each emission component, and considers their effect on total emissions. We then evaluate the overall level of uncertainty implied by the differences among methodologies according to recommendations of the Joint Committee for Guides in Metrology. We find a relative uncertainty in China’s cement-related emissions in the range of 10 to 18%. This result highlights the importance of understanding and refining methods of estimating emissions in this important industrial sector. - Highlights: ► CO₂ emission estimates are critical given China’s cement production scale. ► Methodological differences for emission components are compared. ► Results show relative uncertainty in China’s cement-related emissions of about 10%. ► IPCC Guidelines and CSI Cement CO₂ and Energy Protocol are recommended

[en] China has implemented a series of minimum energy performance standards (MEPS) for over 30 appliances, voluntary energy efficiency label for 40 products, and a mandatory energy information label that covers 19 products to date. However, the impact of these programs and their savings potential has not been evaluated on a consistent basis. This paper uses modeling to estimate the energy saving and CO₂ emission reduction potential of the appliances standard and labeling program for products for which standards are currently in place, under development or those proposed for development in 2010 under three scenarios that differ in the pace and stringency of MEPS development. In addition to a baseline 'frozen efficiency' scenario at 2009 MEPS level, the 'Continued Improvement Scenario' (CIS) reflects the likely pace of post-2009 MEPS revisions, and the likely improvement at each revision step. The 'Best Practice Scenario' (BPS) examined the potential of an achievement of international best-practice efficiency in broad commercial use today in 2014. This paper concludes that under 'CIS', cumulative electricity consumption could be reduced by 9503 TWh, and annual CO₂ emissions of energy used for all 37 products would be 16% lower than in the frozen efficiency scenario. Under a 'BPS' scenario for a subset of products, cumulative electricity savings would be 5450 TWh and annual CO₂ emissions reduction of energy used for 11 appliances would be 35% lower. - Highlights: → Strengthened efficiency standards decelerate electricity demand growth but total demand rises through 2030. → Continuous improvement of current standards can achieve cumulative reduction of 9503 TWh by 2030. → International best-practice efficiency for selected products reduces 5450 TWh cumulatively by 2030. → Regularly updated standards can achieve most of energy savings as best practice by 2014.