[en] Full text: Nuclear power is faced with a dilemma. From one side, there is no doubt (particularly in our community) that nuclear power can play an outstanding role in a sustainable energy system worldwide due to its well known potential advantages. From the other side we have near-term nuclear power projections and prospects that are not so promising. In 2000 nuclear's share was 3% of total global electricity capacity additions which is more then three times lower that nuclear's 10% share of today's currently installed global capacity. It is also unfortunate that nuclear capacity additions in developing countries, where the main increase in energy demand is expected, are relatively insignificant compared to fossil and hydro capacity additions in recent years. Most near-term projections show no drastic changes in these recent trends How can we address this dilemma? If the nuclear power sector is to increase its role, it cannot simply continue to do what it has been doing and expect that factors outside its control, such as fossil fuel prices or environmental taxes, will change to make nuclear power's prospects more favorable. To reach a different outcome than that indicated by current near- and intermediate-term trends, something must be done within the nuclear community to generate new technological solutions. The challenge is to look to the future, to identify what innovations and new directions - that build upon and make good use of existing expertise and accomplishments - are most promising for helping nuclear power capture a growing share of a growing market. There are several challenges that we have to deal to facilitate large-scale global nuclear power development. These are: achieving economic competitiveness of new NPPs in most parts of the world; successfully demonstrating effective nuclear waste management; responsiveness to public safety concerns; responsiveness to proliferation concerns. And as a result building support for nuclear power among the public and policy makers. A 2000 the IAEA General Conference resolution invited 'all interested Member States to combine their efforts under the aegis of the Agency in considering the issues of the nuclear fuel cycle, in particular by examining innovative and proliferation-resistant nuclear technology'. In response to this invitation, the IAEA initiated an 'International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles', INPRO. The INPRO Project will be implemented in two phases. In the first phase, the main objective is to identify user requirements facilitating large scale nuclear energy development in the 21st century in the following areas: Resources, Demand and Economics; Environment, Spent Fuel and Waste; Safety, and Non-proliferation. Plus two crosscutting groups addressing Criteria and Methodology; and Institutional, Infrastructure, Social and Sustainability Requirements. Upon successful completion of the first phase, taking into account advice from the Steering Committee, and with the approval of participating Member States, a second phase of INPRO may be initiated. It would examine, in the context of available technologies, the feasibility of an international project including the identification of technologies that might appropriately be implemented by Member States within such an international project. We believe that INPRO'S global character, encompassing both designers and end users and their user's requirements, its long time horizon, its consideration of the changing energy sector and its broad based input through IAEA membership all will make it a valuable forum for the assessment of perspectives for nuclear in the 21st century. (author)

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[en] The article discusses the following global aspects of nuclear power development: the global energy issue; the potential of nuclear power; fuel cycle and reactor strategies (maximizing resource utilization, uranium fuel cycle, thorium fuel cycle, maximizing economic benefits, licensing, financing, maximizing environmental benefits); direction of IAEA programmes related to nuclear power development (nuclear power, nuclear fuel cycle, waste management technology, comparative assessment of different energy sources); attaining environmental goals

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[en] In recent years, many IAEA Member States have expressed interest in the development and deployment of small and medium sized reactors (SMRs). The challenges that must be addressed in the successful development of SMRs are discussed, with the fundamental challenge being the achievement of competitive power generation costs. A brief survey of the range of concepts that have been considered for SMRs is provided, including a listing of concepts that were identified in an earlier IAEA study and a discussion of the general categories of SMR concepts. This information is followed by a discussion of general features that can help to meet the challenges. (author)

[en] The focus of most industrial activity today is on improving the performance of existing nuclear power reactors and their fuel. These are all important improvements, but in the long term, continued progress will depend on innovative new designs and fuel cycle technologies. To catalyse innovation IAEA supports the development of new reactor and fuel cycle technologies through dissemination of global knowledge, fostering information exchange and coordinated R and D activities

[en] The international goal of sustainable development requires coordinated actions from people around the world, and all the scientific and technological tools at their disposal. In various fields, nuclear sciences and their diverse applications have proved to be important components in the steps taken to achieve sustainable solutions to practical problems affecting our social, economic, and environmental development. This report has emphasized the two traditional directions of the nuclear activities in the world: energy production and nonenergy applications of nuclear technology in medicine, agriculture, science and industry

[en] Currently nuclear power faces a paradox. On the one hand, there is no doubt (particularly in our community) that nuclear power can play worldwide, a critical, substantial role in a sustainable energy system due to its well known potential advantages. And this is also supported by many studies on long-term energy scenarios, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) recent Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) and Third Assessment Report (TAR). But on the other hand, there near-term nuclear power projections and prospects that are not very promising. Nuclear power's share of global world capacity additions has been decreasing over the last 15 years. In 2000 nuclear share was 3% of total global electricity capacity additions which is more then three times lower that nuclear 10% share of today's currently installed global capacity. Moreover, nuclear capacity additions in developing countries, where the main increase in energy demand is expected, are essentially insignificant compared to fossil and hydro capacity additions in recent years. Most near-term projections show no drastic changes in these recent trends. The IAEA projections, for example, indicate reductions in nuclear power's share of global capacity from 10% today to 9% by 2020, and in nuclear share of electricity generation from 16% to 14 %, even in our optimistic 'high' scenario. How can IAEA address this divergence between promising long-term projections on one hand, and slowing or even negative growth on the other? If the higher nuclear shares in the long-term projections are to be understood, the four key challenges are to be dealt with successfully. These are: successfully demonstrating effective nuclear waste management; responsiveness to public safety concerns; responsiveness to proliferation concerns; economic competitiveness for new NPPs in all the major markets; and as a result building wide support for nuclear power among the public and policy makers. The paper elaborates a bit on each of these challenges and reports briefly on how we at the IAEA see our role, and what we are doing. A common theme throughout will be the importance of continual innovation, a theme that is the focus of a new Agency-wide initiative begun last year. It goes by the acronym of INPRO, for International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles. Within the INPRO project I will emphasize here particularly the task related to non-proliferation issues, an Agency-wide task carried out under the leadership of the Safeguards Department

[en] Full text: Our topic is 'New Horizons', which implies looking beyond old horizons. We began INPRO by asking whether nuclear energy could be a key, substantial part of particularly developing countries meeting their energy needs for sustainable development for the long-term future. It is in the developing countries where population growth will be highest in the next 100 years. It is in the developing countries where development needs are the greatest. And it will be in meeting the concerns of the developing countries, that we are truly challenged to think beyond, and go beyond, old horizons. INPRO studied the new scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), particularly their conclusions about nuclear power and nuclear generated hydrogen, and the answer is, 'yes', nuclear energy has a major role to play, and, 'yes', the scenarios anticipate a major long-term shift in the market for nuclear energy toward today's developing countries. The focus in Phase-IA has been on defining requirements that innovative nuclear concepts should meet to be part of successfully turning the potential for nuclear expansion into a reality. These requirements are different from requirements a supplier might formulate to help him win the next reactor order in the OECD. They reflect a global perspective, a long-term perspective, and an integrated perspective incorporating not just the reactor, but also the front- and back-ends of the fuel cycle, and even institutional and infrastructure factors. Formulating such new requirements is a challenge, and it would be over-confident to present our first draft, so to speak, as our final draft. Phase-IB of INPRO is indeed in the midst of several case studies to test the requirements as currently formulated and identify improvements to make them ever more useful. But even excellent requirements would have limited value without an understandable, transparent, but comprehensive mechanism for applying them to new candidate concepts, for comparing alternatives, and for drawing conclusions about future research and development directions. An essential part of this mechanism has to be nuclear system modelling, and we believe that extensive international co-operation is essential here. And we also believe the Agency can contribute an established, inclusive, productive forum with experience, expertise and networks in safeguards, safety, technology, planning, institutional mechanisms and all aspects and stages of the fuel cycle. We look forward to broad collaboration as we continue with INPRO. It is necessary if we are to move beyond old horizons, to explore the full potential of internationalisation options for fuel cycle components - as the Director General raised in his speech yesterday - and to respond to the new needs of the new century to integrate into the global nuclear system a new generation of nuclear users from interested developing country Member States. (author)