[en] GW170817 began gravitational-wave multimessenger astronomy. However, GW170817 will not be representative of detections in the coming years because typical gravitational-wave sources will be closer the detection horizon, have larger localization regions, and (when present) will have correspondingly weaker electromagnetic emission. In its design state, the gravitational-wave detector network in the mid-2020s will consist of up to five similar-sensitivity second-generation interferometers. The instantaneous sky-coverage by the full network is nearly isotropic, in contrast to the configuration during the first three observing runs. Along with the coverage of the sky, there are also commensurate increases in the average horizon for a given binary mass. We present a realistic set of localizations for binary neutron stars and neutron star–black hole binaries, incorporating intra-network duty cycles and selection effects on the astrophysical distributions. Based on the assumption of an 80% duty cycle, and that two instruments observe a signal above the detection threshold, we anticipate a median of 28 sq. deg. for binary neutron stars, and 50–120 sq. deg. for neutron star–black hole (depending on the population assumed). These distributions have a wide spread, and the best localizations, even for networks with fewer instruments, will have localizations of 1–10 sq. deg. range. The full five instrument network reduces localization regions to a few tens of degrees at worst.

[en] The detection of electromagnetic counterparts to gravitational waves (GWs) has great promise for the investigation of many scientific questions. While it is well known that certain orientation parameters can reduce uncertainty in other related parameters, it was also hoped that the detection of an electromagnetic signal in conjunction with a GW could augment the measurement precision of the mass and spin from the gravitational signal itself. That is, knowledge of the sky location, inclination, and redshift of a binary could break degeneracies between these extrinsic, coordinate-dependent parameters and the physical parameters that are intrinsic to the binary. In this paper, we investigate this issue by assuming perfect knowledge of extrinsic parameters, and assessing the maximal impact of this knowledge on our ability to extract intrinsic parameters. We recover similar gains in extrinsic recovery to earlier work; however, we find only modest improvements in a few intrinsic parameters—namely the primary component’s spin. We thus conclude that, even in the best case, the use of additional information from electromagnetic observations does not improve the measurement of the intrinsic parameters significantly.

[en] Gravitational waves (GWs) from binary black hole (BBH) mergers provide a new probe of massive-star evolution and the formation channels of binary compact objects. By coupling the growing sample of BBH systems with population synthesis models, we can begin to constrain the parameters of such models and glean unprecedented knowledge about the inherent physical processes that underpin binary stellar evolution. In this study, we apply a hierarchical Bayesian model to mass measurements from a synthetic GW sample to constrain the physical prescriptions in population models and the relative fraction of systems generated from various channels. We employ population models of two canonical formation scenarios in our analysis—isolated binary evolution involving a common-envelope phase and dynamical formation within globular clusters—with model variations for different black hole natal kick prescriptions. We show that solely with chirp mass measurements, it is possible to constrain natal kick prescriptions and the relative fraction of systems originating from each formation channel with $\mathcal{O}(100)$ of confident detections. This framework can be extended to include additional formation scenarios, model parameters, and measured properties of the compact binary.

[en] The recent detections of the binary black hole mergers GW150914 and GW151226 have inaugurated the field of gravitational-wave astronomy. For the two main formation channels that have been proposed for these sources, isolated binary evolution in galactic fields and dynamical formation in dense star clusters, the predicted masses and merger rates overlap significantly, complicating any astrophysical claims that rely on measured masses alone. Here, we examine the distribution of spin–orbit misalignments expected for binaries from the field and from dense star clusters. Under standard assumptions for black hole natal kicks, we find that black hole binaries similar to GW150914 could be formed with significant spin–orbit misalignment only through dynamical processes. In particular, these heavy-black hole binaries can only form with a significant spin–orbit anti -alignment in the dynamical channel. Our results suggest that future detections of merging black hole binaries with measurable spins will allow us to identify the main formation channel for these systems.

[en] Using a Milky Way (MW) double neutron star (DNS) merger rate of 210 Myr⁻¹, as derived by the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO), we demonstrate that the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will detect on average 240 (330) DNSs within the MW for a 4 yr (8 yr) mission with a signal-to-noise ratio greater than 7. Even adopting a more pessimistic rate of 42 Myr⁻¹, as derived by the population of Galactic DNSs, we find a significant detection of 46 (65) MW DNSs. These DNSs can be leveraged to constrain formation scenarios. In particular, without prior information on a particular system’s position and orbital period, traditional NS-discovery methods using radio telescopes alone are insensitive to DNSs with P _orb ≲ 1 hr (merger times ≲10 Myr). If a fast-merging channel exists that forms DNSs at these short orbital periods, LISA affords, perhaps, the best opportunity to observationally identify and characterize these systems; we show that toy models for possible formation scenarios leave imprints on DNS orbital eccentricities, which may be measured by LISA for values as small as ∼10⁻².

[en] The second LIGO–Virgo catalog of gravitational-wave (GW) transients has more than quadrupled the observational sample of binary black holes. We analyze this catalog using a suite of five state-of-the-art binary black hole population models covering a range of isolated and dynamical formation channels and infer branching fractions between channels as well as constraints on uncertain physical processes that impact the observational properties of mergers. Given our set of formation models, we find significant differences between the branching fractions of the underlying and detectable populations, and the diversity of detections suggests that multiple formation channels are at play. A mixture of channels is strongly preferred over any single channel dominating the detected population: an individual channel does not contribute to more than ≃70% of the observational sample of binary black holes. We calculate the preference between the natal spin assumptions and common-envelope efficiencies in our models, favoring natal spins of isolated black holes of ≲0.1 and marginally preferring common-envelope efficiencies of ≳2.0 while strongly disfavoring highly inefficient common envelopes. We show that it is essential to consider multiple channels when interpreting GW catalogs, as inference on branching fractions and physical prescriptions becomes biased when contributing formation scenarios are not considered or incorrect physical prescriptions are assumed. Although our quantitative results can be affected by uncertain assumptions in model predictions, our methodology is capable of including models with updated theoretical considerations and additional formation channels.

[en] Advanced ground-based gravitational-wave (GW) detectors begin operation imminently. Their intended goal is not only to make the first direct detection of GWs, but also to make inferences about the source systems. Binary neutron-star mergers are among the most promising sources. We investigate the performance of the parameter-estimation (PE) pipeline that will be used during the first observing run of the Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (aLIGO) in 2015: we concentrate on the ability to reconstruct the source location on the sky, but also consider the ability to measure masses and the distance. Accurate, rapid sky localization is necessary to alert electromagnetic (EM) observatories so that they can perform follow-up searches for counterpart transient events. We consider PE accuracy in the presence of non-stationary, non-Gaussian noise. We find that the character of the noise makes negligible difference to the PE performance at a given signal-to-noise ratio. The source luminosity distance can only be poorly constrained, since the median 90% (50%) credible interval scaled with respect to the true distance is 0.85 (0.38). However, the chirp mass is well measured. Our chirp-mass estimates are subject to systematic error because we used gravitational-waveform templates without component spin to carry out inference on signals with moderate spins, but the total error is typically less than ${10}^{-<!--\; ???\; -->3}{M}_{\odot <!--\; ???\; -->}$. The median 90% (50%) credible region for sky localization is $\sim <!--\; ???\; -->600{\mathrm{d}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{g}}^2$ ($\sim <!--\; ???\; -->150{\mathrm{d}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{g}}^2$), with 3% (30%) of detected events localized within $100{\mathrm{d}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{g}}^2.$ Early aLIGO, with only two detectors, will have a sky-localization accuracy for binary neutron stars of hundreds of square degrees; this makes EM follow-up challenging, but not impossible.

[en] We anticipate the first direct detections of gravitational waves (GWs) with Advanced LIGO and Virgo later this decade. Though this groundbreaking technical achievement will be its own reward, a still greater prize could be observations of compact binary mergers in both gravitational and electromagnetic channels simultaneously. During Advanced LIGO and Virgo's first two years of operation, 2015 through 2016, we expect the global GW detector array to improve in sensitivity and livetime and expand from two to three detectors. We model the detection rate and the sky localization accuracy for binary neutron star (BNS) mergers across this transition. We have analyzed a large, astrophysically motivated source population using real-time detection and sky localization codes and higher-latency parameter estimation codes that have been expressly built for operation in the Advanced LIGO/Virgo era. We show that for most BNS events, the rapid sky localization, available about a minute after a detection, is as accurate as the full parameter estimation. We demonstrate that Advanced Virgo will play an important role in sky localization, even though it is anticipated to come online with only one-third as much sensitivity as the Advanced LIGO detectors. We find that the median 90% confidence region shrinks from ∼500 deg² in 2015 to ∼200 deg² in 2016. A few distinct scenarios for the first LIGO/Virgo detections emerge from our simulations.

[en] Inspiraling binary neutron stars (BNSs) are expected to be one of the most significant sources of gravitational-wave signals for the new generation of advanced ground-based detectors. We investigate how well we could hope to measure properties of these binaries using the Advanced LIGO detectors, which began operation in September 2015. We study an astrophysically motivated population of sources (binary components with masses $1.2M_{\odot <!--\; ???\; -->}\text{--}1.6M_{\odot <!--\; ???\; -->}$ and spins of less than 0.05) using the full LIGO analysis pipeline. While this simulated population covers the observed range of potential BNS sources, we do not exclude the possibility of sources with parameters outside these ranges; given the existing uncertainty in distributions of mass and spin, it is critical that analyses account for the full range of possible mass and spin configurations. We find that conservative prior assumptions on neutron-star mass and spin lead to average fractional uncertainties in component masses of ∼16%, with little constraint on spins (the median 90% upper limit on the spin of the more massive component is ∼0.7). Stronger prior constraints on neutron-star spins can further constrain mass estimates but only marginally. However, we find that the sky position and luminosity distance for these sources are not influenced by the inclusion of spin; therefore, if LIGO detects a low-spin population of BNS sources, less computationally expensive results calculated neglecting spin will be sufficient for guiding electromagnetic follow-up.

[en] A novel experimental scheme enabling the investigation of transient exotic spin couplings is discussed. The scheme is based on synchronous measurements of optical-magnetometer signals from several devices operating in magnetically shielded environments in distant locations (>or similar 100 km). Although signatures of such exotic couplings may be present in the signal from a single magnetometer, it would be challenging to distinguish them from noise. By analyzing the correlation between signals from multiple, geographically separated magnetometers, it is not only possible to identify the exotic transient but also to investigate its nature. The ability of the network to probe presently unconstrained physics beyond the Standard Model is examined by considering the spin coupling to stable topological defects (e.g., domain walls) of axion-like fields. In the spirit of this research, a brief (∝2 hours) demonstration experiment involving two magnetometers located in Krakow and Berkeley (∝9000 km separation) is presented and discussion of the data-analysis approaches that may allow identification of transient signals is provided. The prospects of the network are outlined in the last part of the paper. (copyright 2013 by WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim)