[en] An extreme risk has a very slight probability but potentially heavy consequences. Despite the existence of three accountancy methods for dealing with them (provisions, contingent liabilities and insurance), the transposition of such risks into financial statements is based on a sequential analysis of both the probability of the risk happening and the ability to estimate the effects. This method keeps us from taking into account risks with a highly uncertain probability of occurrence, such as accidents at nuclear power plants - independently of the 'amount' at stake. As management reports from firms concerned by nuclear risks show, the diffusion of qualitative information does not offset this gap in bookkeeping

[en] Humanity is using mineral resources at an unprecedented rate, and demand will continue to grow over the coming decades, fuelled by the energy and digital transitions and the economic development of highly populated countries. But the nature and quantities of mineral resources needed are highly dependent on the types of use envisaged, which vary according to the organisation and level of development of societies. The demand for raw materials must therefore be estimated using a dynamic and regionalized approach, taking into account the different development scenarios, particularly as regards the deployment of renewable or decarbonised energy resources. This article summarises the main analyses of previously published articles by Olivier Vidal et al. (authors)

[en] In this seminar on the crucial role of structural raw materials to the energy transition and social development, a first contribution more particularly addresses mineral resources and energy: general framework and stakes, three scenarios to determine needs in mineral resources for the energy transition, discussion of world needs and estimated production capacities, energy needs for the production of these materials, possible futures with couplings production-recycling-energy-economy. The second contribution addresses environmental externalities related to needs in metals: acknowledgement of the rights of victims, compensation obligation for the polluter, determination of the compensation amount (agreement or assessment). The third contribution proposes several figures which illustrate the evolution of the world market of rechargeable batteries and the impact on the demand in nickel, cobalt and lithium. The fourth contribution proposes an industrial vision on strategic metals used for energy storage (nickel, cobalt, lithium rare earths, and metals used for fuel cells such as sodium-ion, lithium-sulphur and solid electrolyte). A 'position note' gives the overall Comes opinion.

[en] Created on 17 July 2009, ANCRE (French National Alliance for Energy Research Coordination) brings together 19 research and innovation bodies and higher education institution consortia in the field of energy. Its missions, carried out in liaison with competitiveness clusters and funding agencies, are to: - reinforce synergies and partnerships between research bodies, universities and companies, - identify scientific and technical challenges hampering industrial development, - propose research and innovation programs and approaches to their implementation, - contribute to the development of national research strategy in the field of energy, as well as funding agency program development. Its 2 main societal challenges are: Clean, secure and efficient energy, and Sustainable mobility and urban systems. ANCRE mobilizes 200 scientists involved in 10 programmatic groups (1 - Energy from biomass, 2 - Fossil energy, geothermal energy, critical metals, 3 - Nuclear energy, 4 - Solar energy, 5 - Ocean, hydraulic and wind energy, 6 - Transport, 7 - Buildings, 8 - Industries and agriculture, 9 - Energy forecasting and economics, 10 - Energy networks and associated storage) and 2 cross-disciplinary groups (Strategy, Europe and international). This activity report presents the ANCRE's 2015-2016 Highlights, its future challenges, its contribution to public policy-making, its close cooperation with the French national research agency and active participation in European programs, its mobilizing, structuring and uniting communities, and its knowledge production and dissemination

[en] After an opening speech on the issue of energy transition and mineral resources, the contributions of this seminar first addressed French initiatives and policies, and the concerned sectors: scenarios of energy transition in France and associated scenarios (deployment of renewable energies, of electric mobility, and so on), overview of the different industrial sectors concerned by energy transition and economic and technological stakes associated with mineral resources for these sectors, French policies and initiatives regarding mineral resources. The second part addressed needs and stakes: current knowledge about needs in mineral resources associated with energy transition, overview of stakes associated with the offer in raw materials, focus on economic and energetic stakes associated with metals.

[en] This publication contains abstracts of contributions and Power Point presentations. The first session of this seminar addressed needs associated with innovative technologies: elements of analysis of the dependence on mineral materials used for energy transition, the impact of sensitive raw materials on electrified power-trains of the PSA Group, environmental stakes of the automotive industry. The second session addressed the impact on resources and mineral markets: call-back mechanisms in economic theory (price, recycling and substitutions), dynamic modelling of the relationship between raw materials and energy for a world low carbon development, strategic materials and recycling. The third session addressed geopolitics and strategic stakes: for a critical approach to criticality, geology and geopolitics (some examples of raw material markets), strategic stakes about rare earths and critical materials for a sustainable development. A round table discussed whether strategic materials were a bottleneck for energy transition.

[en] After a recall of the context created by the French roadmap for circular economy, and by the mineral resource programming plan, this report addresses photovoltaic technologies which may be mobilised during the ten years to come for the French energy transition. The different chapters address the numerous components with more or less specific properties (from photoelectric effect to PV power plants), the expected development of photovoltaic energy (indispensable to energy transition, with important consequences on the demand in mineral resources), the analysis of the PV sector (choices of technologies, identification of associated key materials), the evolution of stakes related to PV resources under the influence of crystalline technologies and their evolutions, and the role of French and European actors on the photovoltaic market. It also states recommendations to better manage supplies, to develop and to diffuse solutions to reduce material needs of the photovoltaic sector and associated environmental impacts, to guarantee the deployment (on the French soil) of high environmental performance and low carbon PV technologies consistent with climate objectives, to favour the industrial development in France and Europe of a high environmental performance and low carbon PV sector

[en] In-between the limits fixed by the available resources and the physical susceptibility of the geosphere, Physical Sciences have to play a part in building our common future, together with other sciences, as we focused during the first session of the school. During the second session of the school we considered the Sustainable Energy challenge taken up on a world-wide basis, giving rise to very diverse energy scenarios. This third session will start with a focus on the so-called EROI index (Energy Return on (Energy) Invested) of energy systems. Case studies point to the various perimeters that can be considered when calculating the Energy Invested. Besides, societies use a mix of energy sources having different EROIs indices, and the ways these sources contribute to a societal EROI will be addressed. A second part of the session will be devoted to a number of key-factors entering the calculation of EROIs: availability of resources, capacity of energy storage, structure and efficiency of energy grids. As an example, renewable energies have a high potential, but capturing, converting, storing and distributing these energies require important amounts of mineral resources. The associated amount of primary energy needed has to be evaluated. Besides entropy limits, technical, social and economic limits which make our use of scarce metals highly dispersive. These constraints have to be taken into account when designing future energy scenarios. A third part will be concerned with economic modeling incorporating biophysical constraints, such as energy availability and entropy production. Various recent approaches aiming at generating models with an intrinsic dynamics will be discussed. The third edition of this workshop at the Ecole de Physique des Houches aims at exposing and exploring the potential contributions of Physics to the energy challenge. Numerous roads of ongoing research will cross and cross-fertilize in the program, profiting a second objective of the workshop: design the knowledge basis for young physicists and engineers who will implement the energy transition. This vast scientific program cannot and will not be exhausted in a one week seminar. On the contrary, the workshop Energy Scenarios: Which Research in Physics? Is only the third one in an expected longer series. This document brings together the available presentations (slides): 1 - After Paris COP21: The New Climate Policy Momentum (Jean-Pascal van Ypersele); 2 - Challenges for climate science after Paris (Robert Vautard); 3 - The net EROI for solar PV: a case study for Spain (Pedro A. Prieto); 4 - History, applications, numerical values and problems with the calculation of EROI (Energy Return on energy) Investment (Charles A. S. Hall); 5 - Renewable Systems from pre-modern periods: intermittency issues and resources management (Mathieu Arnoux); 6 - Estimations of very long-term time series of fossil fuels global EROI (Victor Court, Florian Fizaine); 7 - Examining The Relation between Quality of Life and Biophysical vs Economic Conditions (Jessica G. Lambert); 8 - Suppose we agree how to calculate EROIs... so/now what? (Carey W. King); 9 - Grid, DG and demand control: operation vs. evolution (N. Hadjsaid); 10 - The use of intermittent sources for electricity production in Germany, Sweden, Europe (F. Wagner); 11 - Energy transmission networks at different scales: Method, results and limits (Johannes Dorfner); 12 - The EROIs of Power Plants - why are they so different? You never find two publications with the same results... (Daniel Weissbach); 13 - Overview of existing and innovative batteries, impact of the storage on the renewable electricity life cycle (Fabien Perdu); 14 - Power to gas to power, Solution or dead lock? (Georges Sapy); 15 - Smart Grids: A high-tech [r]evolution to facilitate the energy transition (Andrei Nekrassov); 16 - Natural Resources in a Monetary Macro-dynamics Work in progress (Gael Giraud); 17 - Hybrid LCA-I/O approach to estimate EROI, Application to wind power (Cyril Francois); 18 - Mineral resources availability and recycling limits: A constraint for ambitious and sustainable energy scenarios (Philippe Bihouix); 19 - Biophysical economics: Essential for the second half of the age of oil (Charles A. S. Hall, Kent Klitgaard); 20 - Transition Engineering Scenarios, What EROI tells us about the future (Susan Krumdieck); 21 - Dynamical Economic model in a finite world (Christophe Goupil, Eric Herbert, Yves D'Angelo, Quentin Couix); 22 - Long-term endogenous economic growth and energy transitions (Victor Court, Pierre-Andre Jouvet, Fredric Lantz); 23 - Growth, productivity and oil history - The Gordon knot (Michel Lepetit); 24 - Taking climate change seriously (Ivar Ekeland); 25 - Dedicating multi-scale approaches to low carbon prospective studies (Nadia Maizi); 26 - EROI and the zero lower bound (Michel Lepetit); 27 - Summing it up: A couple of implications for collective decision (Jean-Marc Jancovici)

[en] This report aims at shedding a light on material consumptions associated with network transformations related to the development of smart grids and to the low-carbon transition, and on economic, environmental (beyond the only carbon print) and social stakes related to these materials. After a description of the present operation of the electric power grid, it presents disruptions due to the integration of renewable energies into the power system with a description of envisaged solutions on the short and medium term (smart grid technologies, network physical strengthening), and an identification of key materials. Then, it presents the different stationary storage solutions (batteries, hydrogen), identifies technologies to be analysed, and necessary materials. In a third part and for some materials used in the adopted technologies, it describes associated economic, environmental and social risks. It also explores European industrial opportunities, more particularly in the case of France when relevant. It finally presents recommendations regarding levers for the reduction of risks and for the exploitation of the previously defined industrial opportunities

[en] This report first gives an overview of the energy system by presenting the determining factors of energy demand and of CO₂ emissions per sector (housing and office building, transport, industry, agriculture, forestry and biomass), by analysing energy systems and CO₂ emissions (energy sources, energy vectors, networks and storage, energy and CO₂ assessment for France), and by describing the guidelines of the scenarios proposed by ANCRE. The three main scenarios are characterized by a stronger sobriety, an electricity-based de-carbonation (with a variant based on nuclear and renewable energies), and diversified vectors. They are notably compared to a trend-based reference scenario. Results are discussed in terms of energy consumption (primary and final energy, consumption by the different sectors), of energy production and CO₂ emissions. Scenarios are assessed in terms of economic, environmental and societal, political and strategic criteria. Some consequences for research topics and funding are identified