[en] The developing countries and emerging economies are crucially contributing to global economic development, energy transition, and climate governance. This paper employs panel cointegration technique to investigate the long-run relationship between carbon emissions and five impacting factors (per capita GDP, primary energy consumption, international trade, fossil proportion, and quadratic per capita GDP) in 50 representative developing countries during 1995–2017. The empirical findings confirm the existence of long-run equilibrium, and the regressing coefficients of fully-modified OLS (FMOLS) indicate that (a) impacting features of the inverted U-shaped curve of Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) theory appear in a few countries, such as Mexico, Croatia, Kazakhstan, Iran, Algeria, Indonesia, and Thailand; (b) the energy consumption has statistically positive and significant impacts on boosting the carbon emissions; (c) the negative effect of international trade emerges in the developing nations enjoying trade surpluses; and (d) fossil energy share poses a mixed impact. This paper reveals that the vast and inspiring contribution of developing countries to global carbon emission reduction should attract more international attention and assistance.

[en] This paper uses a total-factor framework to investigate energy efficiency in 23 developing countries during the period of 1980-2005. We explore the total-factor energy efficiency and change trends by applying data envelopment analysis (DEA) window, which is capable of measuring efficiency in cross-sectional and time-varying data. The empirical results indicate that Botswana, Mexico and Panama perform the best in terms of energy efficiency, whereas Kenya, Sri Lanka, Syria and the Philippines perform the worst during the entire research period. Seven countries show little change in energy efficiency over time. Eleven countries experienced continuous decreases in energy efficiency. Among five countries witnessing continuous increase in total-factor energy efficiency, China experienced the most rapid rise. Practice in China indicates that effective energy policies play a crucial role in improving energy efficiency. Tobit regression analysis indicates that a U-shaped relationship exists between total-factor energy efficiency and income per capita. - Research Highlights: → To measure the total-factor energy efficiency using DEA window analysis. → Focus on an application area of developing countries in the period of 1980-2005. → A U-shaped relationship was found between total-factor energy efficiency and income.

[en] Based on the 1.5 °C temperature control target of the Paris Agreement, the two scenarios in this paper which are 1.5 degree scenario (1.5DS) and 2 degree scenario (2DS) aim to analyze the CO₂ emission space and power transition path constrains of the power sector in China. This paper then discusses the possible scenarios of 1.5DS and 2DS power planning schemes in 2050. The conclusions are as follows: (1) China’s electricity consumption saturation period will occur during the period of 2030–2040; (2) Driven by technology learning, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of wind power will have obvious competitive advantages in 2020 and so does solar power in 2030. However, due to the impact of additional grid connection costs of new energy power, economic advantages can only be obtained in the power market after at least 10 years; (3) The installed capacity of coal power in 1.5DS and 2DS will peak in 2020, and CO₂ emissions will also peak in 2020, then it shows a trend of decreasing year by year. However, it should be noted that 1.5DS is with possibilities, but with enormous challenges as the same time; (4) Accelerating the green and low carbon transition of power sector must be gradually improving the power market and electricity price mechanism, providing a good transition environment for the power sector, developing emerging power technology, and promoting multi-energy complementary systems.

[en] Highlights: • Significant potential cost savings to electricity consumers from market reforms. • Average market revenues fall to the level of a medium-efficient coal unit. • Mechanisms to allow generators to recover their fixed costs are likely necessary. • Emissions may increase in the short run, but can be offset by higher hydro imports. • CO₂ pricing does not reduce emissions in the short run and may lead to significant wealth transfers. -- Abstract: China’s electricity system is the world’s largest, in terms of installed generating capacity, and is also the world’s largest single source of greenhouse gas emissions. In 2015, China embarked on reforms in its electricity sector that aim to introduce market mechanisms in wholesale pricing. This study provides a quantitative assessment of the economic and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission impacts of transitioning to electricity markets in China, focusing on Guangdong Province. We find that market reforms deliver significant annual cost savings (21 to 63 billion yuan, 9%–27% reduction in total costs in a base case) to consumers in Guangdong, with smaller production cost savings (12 billion yuan, 13% reduction in production costs in a base case). Savings for consumers are accompanied by a large reduction in net revenues for coal and natural gas generators, raising concerns about generator solvency, longer-term resource adequacy, and the need for transition mechanisms. Market reforms increase CO₂ emissions in Guangdong, as a result of gas-to-coal switching, though higher hydropower imports from neighboring provinces could offset these emissions. CO₂ pricing has a limited impact on CO₂ emissions in the short run and has the potential to lead to significant wealth transfers. The most important benefit of market reforms will be in providing an economic framework for longer-term operations and investment.

[en] Using a neo-classical aggregate production model where capital, labor and energy are treated as separate inputs, this paper tests for the existence and direction of causality between output growth and energy use in China at both aggregated total energy and disaggregated levels as coal, oil and electricity consumption. Using the Johansen cointegration technique, the empirical findings indicate that there exists long-run cointegration among output, labor, capital and energy use in China at both aggregated and all three disaggregated levels. Then using a VEC specification, the short-run dynamics of the interested variables are tested, indicating that there exists Granger causality running from electricity and oil consumption to GDP, but does not exist Granger causality running from coal and total energy consumption to GDP. On the other hand, short-run Granger causality exists from GDP to total energy, coal and oil consumption, but does not exist from GDP to electricity consumption. We thus propose policy suggestions to solve the energy and sustainable development dilemma in China as: enhancing energy supply security and guaranteeing energy supply, especially in the short run to provide adequate electric power supply and set up national strategic oil reserve; enhancing energy efficiency to save energy; diversifying energy sources, energetically exploiting renewable energy and drawing out corresponding policies and measures; and finally in the long run, transforming development pattern and cut reliance on resource- and energy-dependent industries

[en] Highlights: • Market prices likely lead to significant decreases in net revenues for coal generators. • Existing coal generators in Guangdong had ~ US$14 billion in outstanding debt in 2016. • Market reforms create transition and resource adequacy challenges for coal generators. • Developing long-term resource adequacy mechanisms can solve both challenges. -- Abstract: China is currently pursuing electricity reforms that will create wholesale markets for electricity. Electricity markets hold considerable promise for facilitating China's transition to clean energy systems, but face obstacles. The most significant obstacle to market reforms is their potential financial impact on coal generation, which currently accounts for most of China's generating capacity. In this paper, we examine the impact of market reforms on coal generation in China, using Guangdong Province as a case study. We find that, in the near term, market prices are likely to lead to significant decreases in net revenues for coal generators relative to the current benchmark tariff, with 40%–60% of coal generation capacity unable to cover the cost of remaining in commercial operation. We estimate that existing coal generators in Guangdong had 94 billion yuan (US$14 billion) in outstanding debt in 2016, creating large risks for banks and raising questions about the potential impacts of electricity market reforms on China's financial industry. The impact of market reforms on coal generators creates two problems—transition and resource adequacy. The development of mechanisms for long-term resource adequacy provides a common solution to both of these problems.

[en] Coal power holds the king position in China's generation mix and has resulted in ever-increasing ecological and environmental issues; hence, the development of the electric power sector is confronted with a series of new challenges. China has recently adopted a new economic principle of the “new economic normal,” which has a large effect on the projection electricity demand and power generation planning through 2020. This paper measures electricity demand based upon China's social and economic structure. The 2020 roadmap presents China's developing targets for allocating energy resources to meet new demands, and the 2030 roadmap is compiled based upon an ambitious expansion of clean energy sources. Results show that electricity demand is expected to reach 7500 TWh in 2020 and 9730 TWh in 2030. Coal power is expected to reach its peak in 2020 at around 970 GW, and will then enter a plateau, even with a pathway of active electricity substitution in place. - Highlights: • Conduct electricity demand scenario analysis for China during 2015–2030. • Outline China's power generation planning roadmaps for 2020 and 2030. • Analyze coal power prospective in China under “new economic normal”. • Coal power is expected to reach its peak at around 970 GW by 2020 in China.

[en] As China expands the renewable share in its power system, coal power is regulated to balance load by adjusting output to meet system demand at all times. In 2016, the Chinese government required existing coal fleets to conduct flexibility retrofits to accommodate more renewable power. We conduct this study to evaluate how coal power retrofits could affect wind integration and emissions at a system level. By constructing a balancing model that respects China’s unique quota-based dispatch rules, we use real data from provincial dispatch center of Jilin Province to compare wind power integration and system emissions before and after coal power retrofits. We find that coal power retrofits can significantly reduce wind curtailment from 31 to 7% in our base simulation model. However, emission reductions achieved from coal power retrofits are subject to diminishing marginal returns. We suggest policy efforts to proceed with the strategy of coal power retrofits but carefully evaluate both economic and environmental costs associated with different technologies to reduce pollution and implement from the least expensive ones.

[en] Electricity consumption growth in China has experienced radical adjustment from high speed to medium speed with the advent of new economy normal. However, the investment enthusiasm on coal power remains unabated and leads to continuous operation efficiency deterioration in recent years. In this paper, we quantify the rational capacity and potential investment of coal power in China during the 13th FYP period (2016–2020). By employing power planning model and fully considering the power sector's contribution in the 15% non-fossil primary energy supply target by 2020, we estimate that the reasonable capacity addition space of coal power ranges between 50 GW and 100 GW, depending on the expected range of demand growth. We find that if all the coal power projects submitted for Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) approval were put into operation in 2020, capacity excess would reach 200 GW. Such huge overcapacity will bring forth disastrous consequences, including enormous investment waste, poor economic performance of generators and more importantly, delay of low-carbon energy transition. Finally, policy recommendations are proposed to address this issue. - Highlights: • Assess the rational capacity of coal power in China by 2020. • The number is within 960 GW under the 15% non-fossil primary energy target. • All EIA approved projects built, the capacity would reach 1150 GW by 2020. • 200 GW excess of coal power will bring forth disastrous consequences for China.

[en] China is in the processes of rapid industrialization and urbanization. Based on the Kaya identity, this paper proposes an analytical framework for various energy scenarios that explicitly simulates China's economic development, with a prospective consideration on the impacts of urbanization and income distribution. With the framework, China's 2050 energy consumption and associated CO₂ reduction scenarios are constructed. Main findings are: (1) energy consumption will peak at 5200–5400 million tons coal equivalent (Mtce) in 2035–2040; (2) CO₂ emissions will peak at 9200–9400 million tons (Mt) in 2030–2035, whilst it can be potentially reduced by 200–300 Mt; (3) China's per capita energy consumption and per capita CO₂ emission are projected to peak at 4 tce and 6.8 t respectively in 2020–2030, soon after China steps into the high income group. - Highlights: • A framework for modeling China's energy and CO₂ emissions is proposed. • Scenarios are constructed based on various assumptions on the driving forces. • Energy consumption will peak in 2035–2040 at 5200–5400 Mtce. • CO₂ emissions will peak in 2030–2035 at about 9300 Mt and be cut by 300 Mt in a cleaner energy path. • Energy consumption and CO₂ emissions per capita will peak soon after China steps into the high income group