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Dessus, Benjamin; Laponche, Bernard; Le Treut, Herve
Global Chance, 67 rue de la Fraternite, 93100 Montreuil (France)2017
Global Chance, 67 rue de la Fraternite, 93100 Montreuil (France)2017
AbstractAbstract
[en] This analysis, based entirely on the results presented in the most recent reports of the IPCC, leads us to highlight several points. It appears first of all that we can, through a very simple algorithm, assess temperature increases by 2100 for a wide variety of scenarios with greenhouse gas mixes that are also diversified in terms of their impact on temperature increases by attributing to each of these gases its share in the expected warming. The relation between this increase in temperature and the cumulative GteqCO2 over the entire period is: Y= 0.444*Xi/1000, where Xi is the cumulative GteqCO2 over the relevant period of the gas i. The analysis carried out, which makes it possible to discriminate the responsibility of each of the greenhouse gases in the temperature increase expected from a given emission scenario, reveals the major importance to be attributed to methane emission reductions in the fight against global warming. It is even more necessary to be vigilant to this question because the presentation retained by the IPCC, based on an accounting of different greenhouse gases at 100 years and not at a fixed date (2050 or 2100 for example), largely masks the phenomenon. By reading this figure, decision-makers can very well choose in good faith strategies that are expressed by an emissions scenario respecting the plot of CH4 emission trajectories, without realizing that the mix of greenhouse gases they have chosen is in fact producing very different results from those expected by 2100. The algorithm that we recommend should avoid this type of confusion and allows the decision makers to assess the expected results of their strategy in relation to the stated objectives. Lastly, in the context of the 2018 Facilitation Dialogue, this tool could help to put more emphasis on, by recognizing at fair value the reduction efforts on CH4 emissions often undertaken by some countries, in particular the developing world, and whose importance is not recognized today
Original Title
Evaluer simplement l'importance pour le changement climatique des principaux gaz a effet de serre dans les scenarios mondiaux a partir des enseignements du dernier rapport du GIEC
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24 Jul 2017; 19 Nov 2017; 18 p; Available from the INIS Liaison Officer for France, see the INIS website for current contact and E-mail addresses
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Miscellaneous
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