AbstractAbstract
[en] The last two decades have seen much economic and policy research devoted to understanding the causes and consequences of oil supply disruptions. Theoretical models have been developed, and past disruptions scrutinized. Surprisingly, however, scant attention has been paid to the most recent serious disruption - the Gulf Crisis of 1990-91 associated with the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, and subsequent war with the Allies. This report examines the behavior of the crude oil market during the Gulf Crisis of 1990-91. The controversial issues raised by crude oil price behavior during the Crisis are several. First, why did oil prices rise so rapidly, and to such a high level, when the physical supply disruption itself was relatively modest. Why did prices decline so sharply in the middle of the crisis. How can the unprecedented volatility in the oil market be explained. Was the presence of futures trading responsible for this volatility. Or was there underlying volatility present in the market, which was exacerbated by futures trading. Or did futures markets mitigate, or have no effect on underlying price volatility
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