Dimensional Lumber Demand Meter Forecast
Current Market Share and Reliable Forecasts through 2027
We partnered with Home Innovation Research Labs to produce what we believe is the best and most current data and forecast to help US building products companies size their market and track their growth rates relative to the addressable market.
Home Innovation Research Labs has been surveying home builders and households for decades. Their most recent detailed survey included responses from ~1,300 home builders who build ~32,000 homes per year, and ~75,000 households, more than half of whom had done a repair or remodel project in the last year.
The Building Products Demand Meter Forecasts measure installed residential market volumes across 18 major building product categories—from dimensional lumber and siding to HVAC and interior paint—through 2027.
Updated April 2024
Dimensional Lumber
US residential dimensional lumber demand is projected to be 18.1 billion board ft. installed in 2024, a decline of -2% by volume YOY.
Dimensional Lumber: Estimated Residential End Market Shares
New Construction
62%
Repair and Remodel
38%
Sources: John Burns Research and Consulting, LLC; Home Innovation Research Labs
Building Products Demand Meter Forecast: Dimensional Lumber uses JBREC’s proprietary market research to help you understand both market changes and total installed volume on an annual and quarterly basis. Clients can access data on dimensional lumber repair and remodels, additions, and replacements to existing homes, as well as dimensional lumber demand for new residential construction (includes both single-family and multifamily).
Segment
Quarterly Unit Installed Volumes are available for New Construction and Repair and Remodel end market exposures. Please talk to our building products consulting team for custom regional and material breakouts.
Materials Covered
Includes dimensional lumber used in structural floors, walls, and roofs
Excludes treated lumber, temporary structures, scrap waste, scaffolding, doors/door frames, and blocking for drywall
Updated April 2024
Current Conditions
- Stronger year-over-year single-family starts to end 2023 and to begin 2024 are expected to drive 1H24 demand for early-stage construction materials, including framing lumber.
- Our monthly Builder Survey shows cooling new home sales and starts as comparisons to the spring 2023 season become more challenging.
- Our monthly Building Products Dealer Survey, in partnership with the Executive Council on Construction Supply and the National Lumber and Building Materials Dealer Association, has shown an improvement in lumber orders since mid-2023.
- The trend toward smaller home sizes reduces the amount of installed framing lumber per start.
- Weakness in bigger-ticket remodeling projects is leading to continued softness for lumber usage in R&R projects.
Demand Outlook
- 18.1 billion board feet installed in 2024 (-2% YOY), with stronger product usage in 1H24
- Rate buydowns and quick-move-in homes supported 2023 new home sales. While builders are starting more homes per community in early 2024, significant land constraints are limiting the expansion of active communities, according to our monthly Builder Survey.
- We expect 2024 single-family housing starts to increase +2% YOY, driving demand for dimensional lumber. Offsetting this is a significant contraction in multifamily new construction. We expect multifamily new construction to contract -28% YOY in 2024 due to completed multifamily units outpacing demand and a higher cost of capital to fund multifamily projects.
- Weaker 2H24 new construction volumes are partially offset by big-ticket remodeling projects recovering late in the year, which drive dimensional lumber R&R demand.
Forecasts through 2027 are available exclusively to building products research members. Click here to learn more.
About our partner
Home Innovation Research Labs
Home Innovation Research Labs (formerly the NAHB Research Center) is a full-service research, testing, and consulting firm determined to improve the quality, durability, affordability, and environmental performance of single- and multifamily homes and home-building products.
Reach out to our partners at Home Innovation
Ed Hudson
Director, Market Research Division at Home Innovation Research Labs
Mike Luzier
President & CEO at Home Innovation Research Labs
Building Products Demand Meter
This industry-first data product tracks current and historical US residential installed product volumes (final demand) for major building product categories.
Members can access market sizes for 18 building product categories.
Track US residential installed product volume for 18 unique building product categories: lumber, concrete, drywall, paint, bathroom fixtures, lighting, and more.
Three-year forecast of levels and growth rates are available annually and quarterly.
History of changes in product volume back to 2000 for each building product category
Also available in standardized format, enabling easy comparisons of product installation volumes relative to each category’s historical range
Based on JBREC proprietary forecasts and extensive, industry-leading survey data from Home Innovation Research Labs
Questions about our Building Products Demand Meter?
Custom Building Products Consulting Services
Building Products Consulting
Structural Building Materials, Interior Fixtures, Prefab Construction, Commercial Construction
Our team is comprised of industry experts with diverse sector and functional experience. We partner across organizations to provide custom consulting reports to aid organic and inorganic investment decisions, strategic planning, and marketing.
Capabilities
- Strategy Advisory
- Deals Support (Pre-IPO, M&A, etc.)
- Custom Surveys
- Product Innovation Studies
Through our custom consulting you can receive accurate answers to questions like these for dimensional lumber:
How is the mix of wood species changing?
What is the outlook for precut framing lumber?
What is the distribution of lumber to turnkey framers?
How are imports from Europe/Asia impacting the North American market?
Contact us to maximize your opportunities in the housing market.
If you have any questions about our services, or if you would like to speak to one of our experts about how we can help your business, please contact Client Relations at clientservices@jbrec.com.
