White Papers
JBREC shares in-depth studies of structural shifts in the housing market and economy.
Included in All Research Packages
Deep dives into structural shifts and historical trends
Long-form studies on pressing topics.
Our white papers cover timely issues such as the rise of investor activity, the impacts of mortgage rates on home sales and prices, overleveraged industries, and more.
In-depth historical analysis.
History is our best guide to the future. Our white papers offer historical analysis of housing trends to better compare past market conditions to the present-day.
No sector left unturned.
We cover a wide range of sectors in our white papers, including the for-sale market, the rental market, demographics, macroeconomics, public policy, and more.
America's Needed Housing Construction
Released January 2023
In this white paper, we have projected the long-term housing demand dynamics in the US. These demand dynamics are driven by demographics, second homes, teardowns, and the need to bring demand and supply into better balance.
Investor Mania 2.0
Released March 2021
We identified 200 players driving the new hyper-data-driven and institutionally-backed housing investor ecosystem. Almost none of these firms existed during the mid-2000s housing boom, and have since added an entirely new layer of potentially discretionary demand to the housing market.
White Papers History
See the full list of our released white papers below.
America’s Needed Housing Construction
We illustrated the balance of demand and supply dynamics nationally. This white paper includes a long-term outlook for construction needed to meet the demand from demographic trends and other factors.
Investor Mania 2.0: How Data, Technology, and Yield Chasing Are Revolutionizing Housing While Raising Risk Levels
We identified 200 players driving the new data-driven, technology-fueled, and institutionally-backed housing investor ecosystem and adding a new layer of discretionary housing demand.
Industries at Risk and Implications for Housing
We identified the housing markets most at-risk during a correction in 3 major overleveraged industries: healthcare, technology, and automotive.
Mortgage Rates Have Less Impact Than Most Think
This paper is a historical deep-dive that examined the effects of rapid increases in mortgage rates on home sales and prices through 2016. 2016.
Burns Residential Repair and Remodel Spending Forecast
This white paper explored what drove our forecast for residential repair and remodel spending in 2016.
Investor Activity Snapshot
We estimated investor activity (rental investors, flippers, vacation home buyers, and foreign investors) as a share purchases by market.
California’s Worst Drought
Periods of drought are historically associated with lower construction levels and rising costs in much of California, which we quantified by market.
Student Debt and Delayed Homeownership
We examined the impact of student loans on home transactions as well as consumer purchasing power, particularly among first-time buyers.
Boomerang Buyers: A Boost to 2014 Housing Demand
We estimated the impact of “boomerang buyers” who lost their homes to foreclosure during the GFC and re-entered the housing market during the recovery.
Foreign Money on the Move
We quantified the role foreign buyers played in the post-GFC housing market recovery and the risk associated with high foreign investor demand.
Easing Distress on the Horizon
As the housing market recovered post-GFC, we forecasted lower distress levels and quantified “shadow” distressed inventory through 2017.
The Impact of Rising Mortgage Rates on the Housing Market
This paper is a historical deep-dive that examined the effects of rapid increases in mortgage rates on home sales and prices through 2013.
Mind the Gap: Construction Delays & Implications for Building Product Sector in 2013
We examined the gap between housing starts and completions, which widened due to the slow recovery of labor in construction and building product sectors.
Renting REO to Stabilize Housing
This paper outlined our proposal to sell REO homes to investors able to professionally manage the homes in order to stabilize home prices and limit distressed selling.
The Road to Recovery: Excess Vacancy and Pent-Up Household Growth
We outlined our forecasted timeline for the housing market recovery over the next 5 years at the national and local level via our estimates of pent-up household demand in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis.
Mortgage Interest Deduction: Positives and Negatives for Housing
We quantified the impact of the mortgage interest deduction (MID) as well as the effect of several of the potential changes to the MID that were being floated at the time.
Only the Shadow Knows: A Shadow Inventory of Distressed Homes Will Eventually Be Sold; What Will Happen to Home Prices?
We outlined our forecast for distressed home sales as well as the trajectory of home prices over the next 6 years.
Unlocking the Housing Market Recovery
We suggested a series of policies that would put the housing market back on track to recovery, several of which were implemented.
Included with all research memberships
Must be subscribed to one of our main research membership packages. Not available to New Home Trends Institute members.
Metro and Regional Housing Package
This package provides a complete picture of housing supply, demand, and affordability through local insight, proprietary surveys, and extensive data analysis. We currently provide an overview of major housing and economic trends across 100 MSAs nationwide.
Single-Family Rental Package
SCATTERED-SITE SINGLE-FAMILY RENTAL
This package provides a comprehensive overview of the single-family rental (SFR) industry’s major markets, including forecasts, SFR market rankings, macro drivers, housing supply, and demographic trends.
Rental Communities Package
BUILD-TO-RENT AND APARTMENTS
This package provides complete look into the multifamily sector, including apartments and dedicated build-to-rent communities. A deep dive into the sector’s major markets, including forecasts, rental market ratings, key fundamentals, economic drivers, demographics, and the impact of alternative housing sectors.
Building Products Package
This package provides current, in-depth insight into building products industry conditions in the country, including a forecast for residential new construction and repair and remodeling spend over the next four years.
Geographic Overview of the Public Home Builders Package
This package is designed for those who compare publicly-traded builders (including securities investors) to each other. Every month we rank each publicly-traded home builder based on the past, current, and forecasted performance of its geographic footprint.
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