0nchained

Analyzing market participants’ on-chain activity has become essential to understanding investor behavior, market cycles, and potential trends. Through comprehensive on-chain analysis, we can identify specific patterns that reflect how different types of addresses—whether large accumulators, high-value retail holders, or smaller retail investors—are engaging with Bitcoin. This segmentation, or cohort analysis, provides us with a deeper look into various investor profiles and their potential influence on Bitcoin’s market dynamics. In this post, we introduce two distinct cohorts of Bitcoin addresses, each exhibiting unique characteristics that contribute to our understanding of the broader market. By focusing on these cohorts, we can assess the behavior of key participants and identify activity that may signal shifts in sentiment, long-term holding patterns, or emerging trends. 1. Accumulating Addresses These addresses are significant long-term holders with a consistent pattern of accumulation, substantial balances, and no history of outflows. By isolating addresses that meet specific criteria—such as a balance threshold, a history of transactions, and the absence of links to institutional or mining operations—we can observe the behavior of high-stake investors who exhibit strong, long-term commitment to holding BTC. 2. Accumulating Retail Addresses This cohort highlights retail participants, typically smaller holders, who display steady accumulation patterns without any history of liquidation. Monitoring these addresses provides valuable insight into how smaller, retail investors are approaching Bitcoin, especially in terms of their long-term confidence and resilience during periods of volatility. In understanding these cohorts, we can derive and interpret a range of on-chain indicators that reflect broader market trends, potential price movement, and shifts in investor sentiment. By linking specific on-chain indicators with these cohorts, we aim to provide a more nuanced picture of Bitcoin’s supply dynamics, investor confidence, and potential market signals. For a comprehensive understanding of this analysis, please read the comments provided. ⬇️ Data: CryptoQuant

Whale Watch: Analyzing Bitcoin’s Price Surge and Whale Accumulation Trends 🔭 🙏🏻 In today’s trading session, Bitcoin has experienced a notable price surge, rising from $59,000 yesterday to $63,000, marking an increase of approximately 6.5%. This significant price movement is intricately linked to the shifts in on-chain dynamics among various whale cohorts, particularly those holding substantial quantities of Bitcoin. Daily Supply Changes Across Cohorts Recent data reveals compelling trends in the supply changes of Bitcoin across different address cohorts: New Whales: The daily supply change for new whales—defined as addresses holding at least 1,000 BTC with an average holding period of less than six months—demonstrated substantial increases. Two days ago, this cohort saw an uptick of 153,491 BTC, escalating to 83,510 BTC yesterday, with an additional 1,705 BTC acquired today. This heightened accumulation signals a significant influx of capital as new investors seize favorable market conditions. Such aggressive buying behavior aligns closely with the recent price increase, suggesting that these new participants are entering the market with a bullish sentiment. Addresses Holding Over 10K BTC: In contrast, this cohort exhibited a minor reduction of -373 BTC two days ago, followed by a slight accumulation of 943 BTC today. Their relatively subdued activity, compared to the aggressive accumulation by new whales, indicates a more cautious approach. This conservative stance may hinder their ability to capitalize on the current market uptrend. Realized Capitalization Changes The changes in Realized Capitalization (RC) provide further insight into market sentiment. Realized Capitalization assigns value to each unspent transaction output (UTXO) based on the price at which it was last transferred. For instance, if a Bitcoin was last moved at a price of $30,000, that UTXO contributes to the realized cap at that value, regardless of the current market price. New Whales have seen a significant increase in their realized capitalization, with changes amounting to $9,584,016,638 two days ago and $5,167,027,607 yesterday. This surge indicates robust valuations of newly acquired assets, highlighting the confidence that new market entrants have in Bitcoin’s continued appreciation. In contrast, certain addresses with balances exceeding 10,000 BTC have seen a decrease in their realized capitalization, indicating a potential trend of profit-taking amid the recent price volatility. Notably, the changes in their realized cap have been minimal when compared to the significant increases noted among emerging whales. This dynamic highlights the dual influence of both selling and acquisition activities on their portfolios, as demonstrated in the accompanying charts. The premier leader in directional on-chain data analytics, 0nchained. Data: CryptoQuant #bitcoin

I couldn’t sleep last night because I kept thinking about how I could refine my new analytical framework for valuing Bitcoin’s Unspent Transaction Outputs (UTXOs). It led me to develop The Mourad Framework—a unique approach for analyzing UTXOs, which are fundamental to Bitcoin's transaction model. By diving deep into unspent transactions, we can now unlock new insights about market sentiment, liquidity, and unrealized profitability in the Bitcoin network. Introducing a few key metrics: - Mourad Current Transaction Value (MCTV): Measures the active value of unspent UTXOs in the network. - Mourad Realized Transaction Price (MRTP): The average acquisition price of all unspent transactions. - Mourad Average Unspent Tx Output Unrealized PnL (MAUTOUP): Helps us understand whether unspent transactions are sitting in profit or loss. - Mourad Average Unspent Tx Output Profitability Index (MAUTOPI): A normalized metric to gauge overall profitability. These metrics provide new signals for market phases, and what’s fascinating is that the current levels of MAUTOPI suggest that we’re not yet in a full bull market, but rather in a pre-bull run phase. While things are heating up, the framework indicates there’s still potential for more upside ahead! For instance, MAUTOPI should reach at least 10% to indicate we’re approaching a market top. With rising interest and institutional demand for Bitcoin, I believe it could even surpass 12% this cycle! 🚀 I've created some charts to visualize these insights, and I’m excited to share more as I keep refining the framework! This is just the beginning—more charts and insights to follow soon. Stay tuned! 🔍📊 Data: CryptoQuant #Bitcoin #OnChainAnalysis #CryptoAnalytics #UTXO #BlockchainData #MarketInsights #MouradFramework #BullRun

🚨 Bitcoin Investors & On-Chain Enthusiasts – Big Updates Alert! 🚨 In light of recent geopolitical events, including the ongoing conflicts between Iran and Israel, we’ve witnessed significant price action in Bitcoin, dropping from $66,000 to $60,000. 📉💥 📊 I’ve just updated my 0nchained Bitcoin Dashboard to reflect the latest market shifts and provide deep insights into what’s really happening beneath the surface. 🔍 Curious to know: • Who’s selling their Bitcoin amid this turbulence? • Which cohorts of holders are driving these moves? • How are long-term vs. short-term holders reacting? • What key on-chain metrics are signaling about the future price action? These are all questions answered by the real-time insights on my dashboard. 💡 Here’s a glimpse of what you’ll get by subscribing to the CryptoQuant Premium Plan: • Access to exclusive on-chain data showing who’s behind the recent Bitcoin sell-offs • Insights into market sentiment based on advanced indicators • Actionable data that lets you stay ahead of the curve in volatile market conditions To see the full picture and really understand what’s driving Bitcoin’s recent price drop, head to CryptoQuant and subscribe to the Premium Plan. 🚀 Why Subscribe? • Get access to my updated on-chain data reflecting this critical moment in the market • Understand the real reasons behind Bitcoin’s performance during major global events • Make informed decisions in this highly uncertain environment using data professionals rely on Don’t miss out on these timely insights—your portfolio depends on understanding what’s really happening behind the headlines. Join me on CryptoQuant to unlock the dashboard and navigate this market volatility like a pro! 🏆 #Bitcoin #OnChainAnalytics #CryptoQuant #MarketInsights #BlockchainData #DataDrivenInvesting

I've observed many quantitative researchers trying to figure out how to profit from Bitcoin using complex models like LSTM RNNs, various GARCH models, and thorough volatility analysis. However, there's this unexpected individual on LinkedIn who has developed a potentially useful strategy for funds wanting Bitcoin exposure. 😎 Here are the results of our 0nchained "Spotwave BTC Strategy," and the data is quite compelling. What are your thoughts on these returns on investment? I’d love to hear your perspective.

We are pleased to announce the release of our latest report, 'Strategic Insights on Bitcoin's Ascendancy: An In-Depth Analysis of Cohort Dynamics'. This in-depth analysis has been highly anticipated, and we are confident it will meet the expectations of our valued followers. The report features meticulously curated charts that are most relevant to the current market conditions. As previously communicated to our LinkedIn audience, the $60,000 price level has consistently acted as a major support. Our analysis provides a detailed exploration of this phenomenon, offering a thorough understanding of the underlying market dynamics. Key Highlights of the Report: - Bitcoin's Rally to $72K: Unveiling the Power of On-Chain Metrics - Hash Ribbons: The recent crossover of the Hash Ribbon indicator signals a buy opportunity, suggesting further price appreciation. - Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) - 90-Day Moving Average: Recent trends show reduced selling pressure from LTH, aligning with Bitcoin's bullish momentum. - Short-Term Holders Realized Price to Price Ratio (STH RP/PR): Instances of negative STH RP/PR values in 2023 have coincided with subsequent prime buying opportunities, validating the indicator's effectiveness. In addition the report delves into analyzing address cohorts to gain a deeper understanding of their behavior and potential investment opportunities: - New Whales: Addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC with an average coin age of less than six months. New whales have shown significant accumulation trends, indicating growing confidence in Bitcoin's future price potential. - Old Whales: Addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC with an average coin age of more than six months. The stable supply held by old whales suggests strong long-term confidence in the market. - High-Value Holders: Addresses holding more than 10,000 BTC and those holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC. These cohorts have demonstrated substantial accumulation and a bullish outlook on Bitcoin's future potential. Conclusion: The recent price surge of Bitcoin to $72,000 can be largely attributed to the strategic behaviors of different address cohorts, particularly the accumulation trends observed among new whales and large holders. The substantial increase in supply held, coupled with the rising average acquisition prices and growing realized capitalization, reflect a robust confidence in Bitcoin's long-term potential. We invite you to delve into this report to gain valuable knowledge and insights that can aid in your decision-making process. Stay 0nchained—your trusted source for cutting-edge on-chain market intelligence. Data source: CryptoQuant & 0nchained

Our first 0nchained Research Weekly Report is now live, providing a groundbreaking analysis of the Fourth Bitcoin Halving and its seismic impact on market dynamics! Here's why you can't miss out on this deep dive: 1️⃣ Bitcoin Halving Unpacked: Understand the intricacies of how halving events sculpt the Bitcoin landscape, pushing the boundaries of scarcity and valuation. 2️⃣ Strategic Institutional Moves: Discover how big players are redefining market stability and growth potential in an era of intensified institutional participation. 3️⃣ Miner Economics: Explore the shifts in miners' profitability and strategy, pivotal in sustaining Bitcoin’s foundational security and economic model. 4️⃣ Price Cycle Revelations: We've decoded the price trajectories post-FTX bankruptcy, revealing how key on-chain metrics and regulatory shifts are setting the stage for the next bullish rally. 📈 Key Highlights: 1️⃣ Spot ETF Influence: The significant catalyst in Bitcoin's resurgence. 2️⃣ Miners' Adaptation: How they're thriving despite reward cuts. 3️⃣ Accumulation Trends: What rising balances in accumulation addresses signal about market confidence. 🧠 This report isn’t just data—it’s a blueprint for understanding future market movements and strategic investment points. Whether you're a seasoned trader or an institutional player, this is your gateway to mastering Bitcoin's current cycle. 👀 Peek into the Future: With comprehensive on-chain analytics we lay out a roadmap for Bitcoin’s journey amidst evolving financial landscapes.

Unlocking Bitcoin's Market Secrets: A Deep Dive into Short-Term vs. Long-Term Holder Dynamics In the domain of Bitcoin on-chain analysis, dissecting the supply dynamics between short-term holders (STH) and long-term holders (LTH) emerges as an indispensable pursuit. To delve deeper, let's elucidate these distinctions. Short-term holders are individuals who hold Unspent Transaction Outputs (UTXOs) aged less than 155 days, characterized by a higher likelihood of liquidation. In contrast, long-term holders possess UTXOs aged beyond 155 days, indicating a propensity towards sustained holding. Vigilantly monitoring these UTXO cohorts empowers us, as on-chain market intelligence specialists, to leverage Bitcoin blockchain analysis and unravel holder behavior. The amalgamation of UTXOs aged over 155 days encapsulates the supply held by long-term holders, offering insights into the enduring commitment of Bitcoin's long-term investors. Conversely, the supply held by short-term holders delineates the segment controlled by opportunistic traders seeking swift profits. It's essential to recognize that not all UTXOs within the short-term spectrum are destined for immediate liquidation, as some may transition into long-term holdings over time. Presently, an examination of Bitcoin's on-chain metrics unveils a pronounced dominance of long-term holders' supply, comprising 74% of the total circulating Bitcoin supply. In contrast, short-term holders' supply constitutes the remaining 26%, underscoring a notable divergence in holding durations. Particularly noteworthy is that 76% of circulating Bitcoin has been held for periods exceeding 6 months, highlighting the steadfast commitment of long-term investors. The interplay between short-term and long-term holders' supplies furnishes invaluable insights into market sentiment and directional shifts. By meticulously tracking the weekly rate of change in these indicators, we can discern evolving trends in Bitcoin's circulation patterns. During bullish market phases, a decline in long-term holders' supply coupled with an increase in short-term holders' supply signals profit-taking by long-term investors and heightened demand from short-term traders capitalizing on price appreciation. Conversely, in bearish market conditions, we observe the inverse trend, with long-term holders accumulating Bitcoin amidst price downturns, thereby amplifying scarcity. Simultaneously, short-term hodlers tend to divest their holdings, exerting downward pressure on prices as they mitigate losses. These observations underscore the dynamic interplay between investor cohorts and their impact on Bitcoin's market dynamics. Monitoring these trends furnishes indispensable insights for informed decision-making and risk management within the cryptocurrency market landscape. Follow us to learn more about on-chain analysis and incorporate our research in your investment strategy process: 0nchained

Bitcoin's Active and Vaulted Supply: Your Essential Indicators for Navigating the Bull Market Understanding these concepts is crucial for grasping the intricacies of our investment terrain... Vaulted Supply encapsulates the sum of Bitcoin that has never been spent, representing the dormant portion of the Bitcoin economy. It's akin to coins tucked away in deep storage, not actively engaged in transactions. This metric provides insights into the unspent coin volume necessary to generate the cumulative sum of coinblocks stored within the network. To understand the Vaulted Supply, we employ a sophisticated network model. Each coin undergoes unique destruction percentages at different block heights, necessitating individual monitoring. However, we streamline this process by equating cointime stored to an equivalent unspent BTC volume, exploiting the fungibility of cointime units for computational efficiency. Unlike UTXO-derived metrics like Miner Unspent Coins, Vaulted Supply consolidates all stored cointime into an equivalent supply of 'never moved' coins. This compression spans from lost to deep cold storage, presenting a uniform 'unspent' supply region. The comparison chart of Circulating Supply, Vaulted Supply, Miner Unspent Supply, and Miner Unspent to Vaulted Supply Ratio illustrates the evolving proportion of Vaulted Supply contributed by Miner Unspent Supply over time. In contrast, Active Supply represents the sum of Bitcoin that has experienced complete expenditure of all its accumulated cointime. It signifies the economically active coin volume participating in transactions. Similar to Vaulted Supply, Active Supply is analyzed at both individual coin and aggregate network levels, consolidating all destroyed cointime into an equivalent supply volume of 'economically active and mobile' coins. Historical data across Bitcoin price cycles underscores a notable trend: a decline in Vaulted Supply often heralds a Bitcoin bull market. This phenomenon signifies a shift in dormant and unspent coins, indicating increased activity within the market. When Vaulted Supply decreases, it suggests that previously idle coins are changing hands, entering circulation, and becoming part of the active supply. This surge in active supply signifies heightened demand and engagement within the Bitcoin ecosystem. As more coins are utilized in transactions, it reflects a growing interest and confidence in Bitcoin as an asset. Therefore, a decline in Vaulted Supply serves as a reliable indicator of a bullish market sentiment. Investors should closely monitor this metric alongside other key indicators to gauge the evolving dynamics of the Bitcoin market and make informed investment decisions. Keep abreast of the ever-evolving landscape of the intricate Bitcoin blockchain with 0nchained, your go-to source for navigating its complexities.

Deciphering Bitcoin's Future: On-chain Insights Driving Systematic Investment Strategies! 🔍 Prepare to elevate your Bitcoin investment strategy to unprecedented levels with our latest unveiling of advanced on-chain market intelligence. At 0nchained, we are at the forefront of decoding the intricate signals embedded within the blockchain, empowering you with unparalleled insights into the dynamics of the Bitcoin market. In an era where data reigns supreme, our team of seasoned on-chain analysts has meticulously curated a suite of proprietary tools and methodologies to dissect and interpret the nuances of blockchain data. Through our relentless pursuit of innovation, we've unlocked a treasure trove of actionable intelligence that promises to revolutionize your approach to Bitcoin investing. I . Investment Strategy Explanation: Buy Signal: When the change in Short Term Holders Realized Price (STH RP) relative to the Bitcoin price drops significantly (less than or equal to -1), it's considered a buy signal. Sell Signal: Conversely, when the change in STH RP relative to the Bitcoin price increases substantially (greater than or equal to 1.75), it's considered a sell signal. Moreover, it sells a multiple (4 times) of the current Bitcoin price, implying a more aggressive selling stance. Holding Strategy: If neither of these conditions is met, the strategy holds onto the investment without buying or selling. II . Let's emphasize the results of the investment strategy performance using the provided metrics: Capital Deployed: This metric reflects the total amount of capital invested in Bitcoin over the testing period (January 2018 to present). It tracks how much money was used to execute the buy signals and how much remained invested or was withdrawn over time. Profit and Loss (PNL): PNL measures the overall profitability of the investment strategy. It represents the total profit or loss generated from executing the buy and sell signals based on the strategy's rules. A positive PNL indicates unrealized profits, while a negative PNL indicates unrealized losses. III . Performance Highlights: Maximum Loss: The maximum observed loss using this strategy is -$44,000 USD. This means that at one point during the testing period, the strategy experienced an unrealized loss of $44,000 USD. Maximum Profit: The maximum observed profit using this strategy is $4,040,000 USD. This signifies the highest amount of unrealized profit generated by the strategy during the testing period.