Three weeks have passed since the insurrection by President Yoon Suk Yeol in the name of martial law declaration. Many things have happened and are happening. President Yoon was impeached at the National Assembly, and the Constitutional Court began deliberation on Yoon’s impeachment. Law enforcement is investigating the insurrection charge.
However, people do not feel comfortable watching the impeachment trial or investigations. The international community is also paying close attention to Korea from the perspective of an unstable country. As the resilience of Korean democracy has been highlighted by this incident, there was a positive factor for the image of Korea. However, there is also a possibility that the negative image might prevail in the future, given that the vulnerability of democracy has been exposed to the extent that the president committed an insurrection and that there are uncertainties and anxiety about the country's future. A significant reason for the uncertainties originated from the tenacious resistance by President Yoon. In addition, the ruling People Power Party opposed his impeachment and sympathized with him. The attitude has intensified the level of uncertainty and anxiety.
Why is the People Power Party, which put the people's power in the name of the party, against the president's impeachment demanded by 75 percent of the people and is passive in punishing him? Putting together what is reported in the media, it seems they are afraid of the collapse and loss of political power. Lawmakers who openly oppose impeachment say that they cannot support impeachment to prevent the election of Lee Jae-myung, leader of the opposition Democratic Party of Korea, as he is likely to be elected president if the presidential election is held after the confirmation of impeachment. Recalling the passing of the impeachment motion of former President Park Geun-hye in December 2016, they argue that if the party agrees to impeachment, conservatives will be demolished. Even if the People Power Party is against impeachment, voters will forget about it after one or two years, according to a member of the parliament. At a glance, the People Power Party’s approach seems reasonable. The problem is that all perceptions of the situation presented above are delusions. A strategy based on illusion can never succeed and causes self-destruction.
If the presidential election is held after the impeachment, the prediction that opposition leader Lee Jae-myung will win is reasonable. However, it is a preposterous illusion to calculate that if the People Power Party opposes the impeachment, the presidential election could be delayed and prevent the election of Lee. Nobody can stop impeaching him as he committed a serious crime against people, threatening people with military force. That should be the bottom line. If the National Assembly had not passed the impeachment motion, large-scale protests and bloodshed would have occurred. As a number of lawmakers are breaking away from the People Power Party, the party itself is reduced to half. In the history of Korea, there have been times when Koreans have failed to punish a small number of elites for colluding for small gains. However, there has never been an acceptable case when the elites ignore the people's demands for unfair gains. This case is the one that the public does not condone.
Some lawmakers say that allowing the impeachment vote in 2016 was a mistake and should never be repeated. This is a case of understanding the lessons of history entirely backward. Conservative parties have faced a devastating situation since 2016 because the leading conservative party at the time, the Saenuri Party, disagreed with impeachment. The results of the presidential election on May 9, 2017, would show immediately. At the election, Moon Jae-in of the Democratic Party earned 41 percent of the vote, Hong Joon-pyo of the Liberty Korea Party 24 percent, Ahn Cheol-soo of the People's Party 21 percent, Yoo Seung-min of the Bareun Party 6.7 percent and Sim Sang-jung of the Justice Party 6 percent. Even though the presidential election was held right after the conservative leader's impeachment, the progressive camp gained only 47 percent of the total votes. Considering the impeachment, the number of votes of the candidates for impeachment was 75 percent, and 24 percent against impeachment. The party fell into big trouble not by the passage of the impeachment but by rejecting it.
It is also not true that voters would forget about the past in a year or two. In the May 2017 election, people had already given more votes to the conservative or neutral camps. The revival of the conservative camp after one or two years is by no means the result of the people's oblivion of the conservative camp's wrongdoing. The public was angry at the excessive partisan attitude of the Moon Jae-in government, which took power after impeachment, such as conducting an excessively long and unprincipled liquidation of deep-rooted evils, leading to a situation in which the conservative camp was re-established.
The People Power Party seems to follow the Saenuri Party's path. It opposed the impeachment and eventually failed to block it. If the People Power Party does not abandon its attitude of ignoring the people's demands, chances are high that the future path will unfold similarly. The party will be divided over whether to go with President Yoon, and we might witness the collapse of conservatives while watching Rep. Lee Jae-myung win the presidential election in April at the earliest.
Even now, if the People Power Party favors impeachment and agrees with the people's demand for punishment against Yoon, the People Power Party will have an opportunity to return. Though it is difficult to win the presidential election, the party can seize a chance to win the 2026 local elections. If they fail to wake up from the illusion and flock to the forces opposing impeachment, they will not be able to avoid their own destruction, and the nation and the people will also be forced to suffer massive losses due to the delay of uncertainty and anxiety.
Wang Son-taek
Wang Son-taek is an adjunct professor at Sogang University. He is a former diplomatic correspondent at YTN and a former research associate at Yeosijae. The views expressed here are the writer’s own. -- Ed.
