Given the boldness of Governor Chris Christie’s budget proposals, the Fairleigh Dickinson University (FDU) poll results reported last week actually constituted very good news for him. He continues to have a positive approval rating of 44-42 percent, and he enjoys a substantial 12 point approval margin in non-union households. Moreover, the Governor’s chief antagonist special interest group, the New Jersey Education Association (NJEA) has a highly negative rating of 33-44 percent.
The FDU poll results on some of his property tax related initiatives provided even better news for the Governor. His proposals for a 2.5 percent cap on public employee salary increases, a one year freeze on teacher pay increases, and a move of the school elections from April to November all received approval by wide margins. This augurs very well for voter approval of the Governor’s proposed constitutional amendment of a “hard cap” prohibiting any property tax increase greater than 2.5 percent without voter approval.
During the first four months of his administration, the Governor has established his three major priorities: 1) the enactment of a Fiscal Year 2011 budget without an income tax increase; 2) the appointment to the New Jersey Supreme Court of strict constructionist justices who will refrain from legislating from the bench; and 3) the enactment of the aforesaid constitutional amendment.
Christie is certain to prevail on his Fiscal Year 2011 proposed budget objectives. He will also achieve his goal regarding the New Jersey Supreme Court, but it will take a while, given State Senate President Steve Sweeney’s present refusal to hold hearings on Justice-nominee Anne Patterson.
The Governor will prevail on his proposed 2.5 per cent “hard cap” constitutional amendment as well. There is no doubt whatsoever that the amendment will win voter approval in a November election by a landslide margin – once the Legislature approves the amendment for placement on a general election ballot. The timing of such legislative approval, however, is highly uncertain.
The New Jersey Constitution requires that the Governor’s proposed amendment be agreed to by three-fifths of all the members of each of the respective houses, i.e. 24 Senators and 48 Assembly members, in order to be placed on the November, 2010 ballot for voter approval. The legislative vote must take place after a public hearing, and the amendment must be so approved and published by the Legislature at least three months prior to Election Day in at least one newspaper in every county.
If the proposed amendment is agreed to by less than three-fifths but nevertheless by a majority of all the members of each of the respective houses in 2010, it will be referred to the Legislature for a vote in 2011. If in 2011 the amendment is again agreed to by a majority of the members of the Assembly and Senate, respectively, then it will be placed for voter approval on the November, 2011 ballot.
Given the sizable Democrat majorities in both the Assembly and Senate, it appears unlikely for the amendment to be approved by the required three-fifths majorities in each house by the deadline date for posting it on the November, 2010 ballot. A more likely prospect would be approval of the amendment by a simple majority in each house for placement on the November, 2011 ballot. Yet even the latter prospect is uncertain, since the amendment poses a serious political dilemma for Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver and Senate President Sweeney.
Both the Senate President and the Assembly Speaker know that the electorate is well disposed to the Governor’s proposed 2.5 percent “hard cap”. In fact, they also realize that the public is clamoring for decisive action on property taxes, and Chris Christie is the first Governor over the past four decades to make such a bold proposal.
Yet Sweeney and Oliver appear to have genuine concerns regarding the reaction of the public employee unions, namely the NJEA and the Communications Workers of America (CWA), who vehemently oppose the proposed constitutional amendment.
Historically, the public employee unions have loyally supported Democratic candidates for governor and the legislature, and they have provided both money and volunteers. If the public employee unions “sit out” the 2011 legislative elections, this could negatively impact the Democrats in the races for both the Assembly and Senate in the newly reapportioned legislature.
If, however, the Democratic legislative leadership bows to the wishes of its public employee union core constituency and refuses to provide the votes necessary for placement of the Governor’s proposed amendment on the 2011 ballot, they will be providing Christie with the most inviting prospect of making the 2011 legislative elections a referendum on his property tax proposal.
In such an event, the Governor would be able to campaign throughout the state in 2011, a la Harry Truman in 1948, against the “do nothing Democratic state legislature” who failed to enact his proposed property tax cap. Christie is a superb campaigner, and Democratic legislative candidates would find themselves on the wrong end of a powerful populist issue.
So for Oliver and Sweeney, it is “pick your poison” time. They can succumb to the pressures of the public employee unions, refuse to provide the votes necessary for the placement of the amendment on the November 2011 ballot, and give Christie and the Republicans a potent property tax issue which could result in the election of Republican majorities in both houses in 2011. The alternative is to agree to the Governor’s amendment on the theory that the public employee unions have no other place to go – they certainly are not going to support either Christie or most GOP legislative candidates.
In the end, I think that Sweeney and Oliver will provide the votes necessary to place the Governor’s proposed 2.5 percent “hard cap” property tax amendment on the 2011 ballot. I would not bet on this, however – Trenton remains the land of the unpredictable.
Stay tuned.
Alan J. Steinberg served as Regional Administrator of Region 2 EPA during the administration of former President George W. Bush. Region 2 EPA consists of the states of New York and New Jersey, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and seven federally recognized Indian nations. He currently serves as Public Servant in Residence at Monmouth University
