Como você compara os impactos do cenário em seus objetivos?

In addition to what is mentioned in the passage, my experience from my strategy role says the following: 1️⃣ Stakeholder Alignment: Sync your objectives with co-founders, employees, and investors to avoid conflicts. 2️⃣ Risk Assessment: Balance the risks and rewards when planning for different scenarios. 3️⃣ Agility: Make sure your goals can adapt to changing business conditions. 4️⃣ Benchmarking: Compare your goals to industry norms to stay competitive and aware of trends.

A "Your Future Self" simulation is nothing more than picturing your future self achieving your goals. Goals for me are more like time travel, in which I meet my accomplished self, and then work backward. To achieve this definition, you must time travel to see your success

I am reminded of the ride-sharing industry, when in its early days, Uber aimed to disrupt taxis and scale globally, both high-stakes goals with many unknowns. They used a goal matrix to pick initial markets, focusing on high-risk, high-reward scenarios like navigating local laws. You can complement the matrix with the following: 🔹 SWOT Analysis: Complements the matrix by offering a fuller view of variables affecting your goals. 🔹 Financial Modeling: Adds numerical clarity to 'importance' and 'uncertainty' factors. 🔹 Scenario Odds: Factor in the likelihood of different outcomes for smarter decision-making. 🔹 Real-Time Updates: Keep your goal matrix current with continuous data input.

As a strategy leader, in addition to what is mentioned, i do the following: 🔹 Sensitivity Analysis: This technique tweaks one variable at a time to gauge its impact, offering deeper insights. 🔹 Action Plans: Beyond just mapping, create contingency plans for each scenario. 🔹 Cost-Benefit Analysis: Factor in ROI to assess the value of pursuing each scenario. 🔹 Time Decay Factor: Prioritize immediate scenarios as future predictions are less reliable.

In my experience, it is also important to identify the scenarios in a structured way. One approach is Strategy in Uncertainty, where you identify what are the key uncertainties and rank them on the level of uncertainty and the impact on the problem at hand. Ideally, you can prioritize and end up just with a few (max. 3) mutually independent dimensions, which you can then use to map your goals to -> 2 dimension = 4 scenarios, 3 dimensions = 9 scenarios

🔹 In addition to SWOT, Pareto Analysis can spotlight critical factors in decision-making. 🔹 Don't overlook opportunity costs. Knowing what you're giving up for a certain scenario can be illuminating. 🔹 Companies are often passion-driven, and this emotional aspect should also be considered in evaluating trade-offs. Ignoring the emotional toll or boost can skew the decision-making process. 🔹 Continually update evaluations based on new information to keep goals current.