Quais são os melhores métodos de avaliação para um negócio sem lucros e por quê?

Look at the Company’s business sector and model first. Does the Company have the revenue coming on line to cover its burn rate? Valuations differ by sector. They also are driven by shareholder confidence in management and their ability to go to market and raise capital. Who are the current institutional investors? Analyze the company’s contracts that are coming on line. Do they create long term residual income and profits? Lastly make sure the company has a valid expense exposure and find out where costs can be cut. There must be a valid time frame from management that shows when the company will reach profitability.

User Growth: Prioritize user growth and market penetration i/o profitability to increase valuation. Revenue Growth: Investors may be willing to invest in a startup that is growing rapidly and capturing market share Scalability: Scalability allows startups to capture a larger market share Technology and Innovation: Startups that leverage cutting-edge technology for disruption and industry leadership Market Opportunity: large and rapidly growing markets can justify high valuations Strategic Partnerships and Alliances: Collaborations with established companies or strategic partnerships Investor Confidence: Effective communication and transparency It's important to note that while profitability is a key factor in long-term sustainability

Among the approaches commonly utilized are the market approach, which relies on comparable transactions or companies, and the asset-based approach, focusing on the company's tangible and intangible assets. Additionally, the income approach, though challenging without profit data, can still offer insights by forecasting future earnings potential or cash flows. Each method has its strengths and limitations, and the choice often depends on the specific circumstances and industry dynamics. Ultimately, a comprehensive analysis integrating multiple valuation methods can provide a more robust understanding of the business's worth.

In my opinion there are many approaches. Nevertheless, it is hard to find exact comps. Therefore, I would use a DCF method and make some assumptions. How much did they invest in R&D? Is there a possibility to switch from negative to positive cashflows in the coming years, etc. I think Tesla is a good example. I suggest literature from Aswath Damodaran.

Revenue-based valuation comes into the picture for the firms operating in the niche domain and for the startups not generating profits. Showcasing revenue and revenue growth on a quarter-on-quarter or year-on-year basis is a relatively better medium for valuation. A comparative analysis of the peers should be done to derive the terminal growth percentage for the firm which works as the multiple for calculating the value of the firm.

While DCF is traditionally profit-driven, it can still apply to businesses expecting future profitability. In my experience, you can project future cash flows based on anticipated growth and discount them to present value. Though this method involves more assumptions, it works well for businesses with a clear growth plan. Each method has its advantages depending on the nature of the business and industry. I recommend combining methods for a balanced view, especially when no profits are present.

These traditional methods are great to value a company, but what happens if the economic or the government is the constraint for the business? It has net value, unique and prospect, but current economy is forcing the company to the wall and they couldn’t keep up the cash inflow to cover operating cost.

The best method for evaluating companies with negative cash flows is encapsulated in Michael Mauboussin’s concept of Expectations Investing. Here’s my version of it: 1) Clearly state your desired/required return. Say, 100% in 5 years. 2) Back solve to “what needs to happen in the business” to - rationally - expect that return. 3) What needs to happen can be expressed in terms of Desired Free Cash Flow or Desired Revenue (or desired Revenue CAGR). The latter is more intuitive to most people. 4) Rationally can be expressed in terms of an “exit multiple”. Normally I put an upper limit of 20X Desired Free Cash Flow. 5) Now subjectively answer the question “do I believe this Desired Revenue CAGR can come to pass?” Hope this helps!