Como você pode usar a previsão de demanda para produtos de alto mix e baixo volume?

Forecasting demand for high-mix, low-volume (HMLV) products involves analyzing historical data, segmenting products, and collaborating with stakeholders. Customer feedback and advanced analytics enhance accuracy. Adjust forecasts dynamically, considering lead times and introducing safety stock. Invest in integrated forecasting software, collaborate with suppliers, and implement continuous improvement. Scenario planning and KPI monitoring ensure adaptability in the ever-changing landscape of HMLV product demand.

High Mix Low Volume products can be in many different industries. In Hardware/Electronics, they tend to be PCBA (Printed Circuit Board Assembly) SKU's allowing for variances on the BOM (for different applications, end-users or markets/geographies, or else). HMLV products are hard to predict and are typically not a great fit the usual "mass production suppliers".

Many manufacturers struggle with HMLV planning due to sluggish changeover practices. Learning techniques for SMED and other fluid changeover methods enable a team to optimize customer satisfaction and lower costs.

A previsão de demanda pode ajudar as empresas que fabricam produtos de alto mix e baixo volume a tomar decisões mais informadas sobre: • Planejamento da produção • Gestão de estoques • Preço: . Alguns métodos comuns incluem: • Análise de séries temporais: Esse método usa dados históricos de vendas para estimar a demanda futura. • Análise de regressão: Esse método usa variáveis externas, como tendências econômicas ou mudanças nos preços, para estimar a demanda futura. • Modelagem de simulação: Esse método usa um modelo computadorizado para representar o comportamento da demanda.

High-mix, low-volume production operations exist everywhere including: - Automotive - Aerospace - Medical manufacturing HMLV products operations run many different products, often on various machines, but usually have short runs of each. Runs could be anywhere from 1 to 100 pieces, and there is generally competition with other pieces in the plant for the same equipment. These products will have varying run-times, equipment, and raw materials needs, and labor hours to complete assembly. In these instances, it is important to get a feel for how often these parts will be run in the plant, as well as if you are able to build base models, or hold into finished goods. If so, you will reduce the competition, and drive higher productivity.

Demand forecasting is pivotal for High-Mix, Low-Volume (HMLV) products due to their unique challenges. It optimizes resource allocation, preventing overstocking or shortages, and aids in meticulous inventory management, reducing holding costs. Accurate forecasting minimizes setup costs per unit, enhancing cost efficiency. It facilitates production planning, ensuring optimal use of production capacity and timely delivery to meet customer expectations. The adaptability to changes and forecasting allows businesses to quickly respond to market fluctuations or external factors. Continuous improvement is fostered through regular analysis of forecast accuracy, allowing businesses to refine models over time.

Demand planning for HMLV environments is important because there are a variety of raw materials needs in order to meet the production schedule. When I worked in the investment casting, metals manufacturing industry, I was responsible for maintaining the materials needs for various types of steel, and inconel metals. Here is the method I used: 1. Start with an annual plan of parts and quantities. 2. Determine the pour weight of the parts, and if the parts are on a tree, or poured individually. 3. Determine the number of test coupons required. 4. Estimate a scrap rate. 5. Execute the math, and place your BPO. Thus, demand forecasting is important because without you will make a grave error resulting in massive production losses.

Forecasting demand is crucial for the entire supply chain process. When it comes to HMLV (High Mix, Low Volume) products, it's essential to gather detailed information about the product to create an effective demand forecast, as these products often have highly variable or turbulent demand. By having an accurate demand forecast, we can make informed decisions about our internal business processes, such as Determining when to order materials, The lead time for materials orders, and Whether it's more effective and efficient to maintain materials, work in progress (WIP), or finished products. We can also assess the appropriate levels of materials, WIP, or finished products to maintain, as well as the lead time for order fulfilment.

No single method will be effective. In my opinion, Balanced Scorecard approach is one of the best methods. We can start by focusing on market segmentation and selecting several markets to concentrate on. We should then gather historical data on their purchasing behaviour and any specific notes related to their decision to buy our products. After that, we need to establish internal business processes, such as maintaining stock levels of FG, materials, or WIP, and determining lead times for materials ordering and order fulfillment. It's essential to train our staff to execute these business processes effectively in order to maximize the service level. In addition, we should consider the investment aspects, including AP/AR balances.

Begin with thorough historical data analysis to identify product-specific patterns. Segment products based on characteristics and engage in collaborative forecasting with stakeholders to enhance accuracy. Leverage advanced analytics, machine learning, and predictive modeling for accurate predictions. Recognize the dynamic nature of HMLV products and implement a flexible forecasting system. Introduce safety stock and buffer inventory for unexpected demand fluctuations. Collaborate closely with suppliers, sharing forecasted demand and establishing flexible agreements. Continuously review and improve forecasting performance based on past analyses.

In a HMLV environment, you will want to do several things to optimize your forecasting: 1. Categorize, and subcategorize your parts. By categorizing, you can draw high-level conclusions about the materials needed for specific groups of products. 2. Research trends. There are multiple product research companies out there. It might be worth the time to pay for market research in order to gain better insight into what your competitors are doing. 3. Catalog, and use historical data. Any data you have will be incredibly useful. Take into consideration changes in market position, seasonality, overall growth, and any other market indicators that could help you estimate a better forecast.

Enhancing demand forecasting for High-Mix, Low-Volume (HMLV) products is facilitated by leveraging advanced tools and technologies. Leading the pack are advanced analytics platforms like Microsoft Power BI, providing robust analytics capabilities for insightful data analysis. Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems like SAP, Oracle provide comprehensive insights by integrating various business processes, including demand forecasting. Data visualization tools, exemplified by Tableau play a crucial role in presenting complex forecasting data in a visually accessible format. When choosing tools, considering ease of use ensures optimal performance and accuracy in forecasting for HMLV products.

The best tool to understand demand forecasting for HMLV products, is a customer forecast. In the event that the customer cannot provide a direct forecast, then you want to at least get directional data from the customer. - Do they expect their business to increase, decrease, or remain the same? - Do they expect their product mix to stay the same? - Have they seen any changes in their customer demand? If you don't have access to any of that information, then you at least need to look at historical data. What products are your highest runners form your most stable customers? Finally, don't forget to review the overall market trends. - Have there been any major market changes recently such as strikes, mergers, major disasters?

When using the Balanced Scorecard Approach, it's important to consider market segmentation alongside the determination of the company's strategic positioning. This will help us identify whether our company will adopt a Cost Leadership, Differentiation, Cost Focus, or Differentiation Focus approach. Once we've made this determination, we can focus on analyzing historical sales data to gather detailed information on market trends, specific events, customer behavior, and more. Additionally, we can work closely with our Sales Marketing Department to gain direct insights from our customers. Lastly, it's crucial to stay updated on current conditions and make predictions about future events based on the current state of affairs.

Enhancing demand forecasting for HMLV products involves strategic measures. Embrace collaborative forecasting with inputs from sales, marketing, and customers. Integrate regular customer feedback to capture evolving preferences. Factor in lead times and introduce safety stock to mitigate unexpected demand fluctuations. Invest in technology that seamlessly integrates with enterprise systems for real-time analysis and collaboration. Continuously review forecast accuracy, conduct post-mortem analyses, and foster a culture of continuous improvement. Stay updated on market trends through regular research and cross-functional collaboration among departments.

From a manufacturing standpoint: I'd almost consider how to "build on time" without a decent forecast. Tools that could be helpful are safety stock / kanban for common raw materials used across these HMLV products, so that you're not chasing parts when new demand arises for these HMLV SKUs.