Como identificar e evitar armadilhas e erros comuns no uso de fontes de dados e modelos de previsão?

a) In my experience, choosing reliable data sources is essential to avoid forecasting errors. b) Once, when using an unverified data source, I faced significant discrepancies that jeopardised the accuracy of the model. c) Now, I always validate the integrity and timeliness of the data before integrating it into my analysis process.

Instead of solely focusing on data verification and cleansing, consider integrating collaborative and collective intelligence approaches to enhance the quality and relevance of your data sources. Invite experts from various fields to review and validate the data, bringing in their specific perspectives and knowledge. Additionally, use crowdsourcing tools to collect real-time data and ensure a diversity of sources. Implement a continuous feedback system where users of the model can report inaccuracies or suggestions for improving data accuracy.

I use a lookahead model to identify future errors, then I consciously avoid making those errors in the present. It's sort of like time travel.

Primary checklist for time series data: - Stationarity Testing. - Seasonality Detection: using decomposition methods or seasonal indicators. - Lag Selection: acf, pacf to determine appropriate lag lengths for ARIMA models. - External Regressors: If applicable, integrate external variables. - Data Granularity: Ensure the data frequency (daily, weekly, monthly) is appropriate for the forecasting model and business requirements. - Data Transformation: to stabilize variance and improve model performance. - Outlier Handling: Detect and address outliers or structural breaks that could distort model predictions. - Model Residual Analysis: residual patterns or autocorrelation to confirm that the model has captured all relevant temporal structures.

To avoid common pitfalls in using data sources, start by ensuring the quality and reliability of your data. Assess the credibility of the sources, checking for any biases, inconsistencies, or inaccuracies. Use data from reputable and validated sources, and cross-check information when possible. Be cautious of outdated data, and ensure that the data you are using is relevant and up-to-date.

Choosing the right forecasting model is critical. Understand the strengths and limitations of different models, such as ARIMA, exponential smoothing, or machine learning algorithms. Ensure that the chosen model aligns with the nature of your data and the forecasting objectives. For instance, time series models work well with historical data trends, while machine learning models can handle more complex patterns and interactions.

In my experience, I make sure I understand the model and can explain it to others. it's important to keep updating our model. regularly update our models to reflect new data and situations. Key Points 1. Choose the Right Model: Select a model that suits your data, purpose, and context. Avoid overly complex models for simple problems. 2. Update and Adapt: Regularly update and adapt your model to reflect new data and changing conditions. 3. Understand the Model: Make sure you understand how the model works and can explain it to others. 4. Validate and Test: Test your model with your data and other sources to check for overfitting or underfitting.

Fiz os créditos de um mestrado de IA, e não defendi a tese, pois não acredito que a IA nas previsões econômico-financeiras possam ser mais eficientes que o CEO, CFO, Diretor financeiro, Diretor comercial, Vendedor, controller etc., ou seja: que substitua o ser humano nas tomadas de decisão. Podem, sim ajudar, nas análises preditivas através de métodos quantitativos (exemplo: regressão linear múltipla, gráficos de tendências, etc.), e quem sabe mais no futuro também nas análises prescritivas. Estou há três décadas atuando com plano orçamentário para grandes e médias empresas, e concluo: que é necessário além de utilizar estas melhorias é "essencial" o feeling do ser humano, a intuição do presidente, e de todas os envolvidos na operação.

- 📊 Express forecasts as estimates, probabilities, or scenarios to account for variability and uncertainty. - 🤔 Recognize and challenge your own judgments, preferences, or expectations with alternative perspectives. - 🔄 Continuously monitor forecasts for new information, events, or feedback and update them as needed. - 🧠 Anticipate how your forecasts might influence the behavior of others or the system and consider the implications. - 📉 Acknowledge margins of error, confidence intervals, and ranges of outcomes to avoid overconfidence in your forecasts. - 📈 Use back testing and validation to compare past forecasts with actual results, identifying and learning from errors.

Regularly measure the accuracy of your forecasts using appropriate metrics such as Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), or Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Compare your forecasted values with actual outcomes to assess performance.

I believe that the main objective of forecasting is to base it on historical indicators based on comparative data between the periods analyzed. For example, a company that bases its sales on tons could use price and cost per ton metrics to match the data presented and ensure that measurements and records are not significantly different between the current result and the projected result.

In my experience, Present Forecasts as Estimates: Use ranges, probabilities, or scenarios instead of exact numbers to account for uncertainty. Challenge Your Assumptions: Regularly review and question your assumptions with alternative perspectives. Update Regularly: Continuously monitor new information and update your forecasts accordingly. Consider Impact: Think about how your forecast might influence the behavior of others or the system itself. Communicate Uncertainty: Clearly communicate margins of error, confidence intervals, and possible ranges of outcomes.

Clearly communicate your forecasting results and the underlying assumptions to stakeholders. Use visual aids and simple language to explain the models and their outputs. Ensure that stakeholders understand the limitations and uncertainties associated with the forecasts.

Communication of your forecasts is an important step that shouldn't be underestimated. Decision-makers must be aware and understand the risks and opportunities associated with your forecast, the probability of certain events happening that significantly influence the forecast as well as any underlying assumptions and the validity of the data sources used. Provide a clear executive summary as well as supporting visuals showcasing the main forecasting drivers. You can use a waterfall chart to show which drivers had the most impact or a Tornado Chart to showcase sensitivities.

It's important to have data visualizations that are simple and straightforward to understand. Maintain consistency month to month. Clarify events or occurrences that caused past data outliers and explain if they will not recur. Be prepared to be challenged on your forecasts, and politely challenge when someone wants to increase the forecast to provide clear rationale and supporting information.

Stagnation is a common pitfall. Forecasting is not a one-time task but a continuous process. Regularly review and update your methodologies to adapt to new challenges and opportunities. Engage in continuous learning and improvement by keeping abreast of the latest developments in data science, machine learning, and forecasting best practices. Foster a culture of feedback and iteration, where forecasting practices are constantly scrutinized and refined.

Combining numbers and expert opinions can improve your predictions. Getting input from various team members can help you see different perspectives. Checking and learning from past predictions can make your future forecasts better.

To successfully identify and avoid common pitfalls and errors in using data sources and forecasting models, a major key is to avoid stagnation. Remember that forecasting isn't a once and done deal - it's an ongoing process that needs to be continuously reviewed and updated to adapt to fresh challenges and opportunities.🔄 Stay hungry for knowledge, keep up-to-date with the latest in data science, machine learning, and forecasting best practices. 📚 Also, it's important to have an environment that's open to feedback and iteration, where all forecasting practices are regularly scrutinized and refined.💡