Centennial Asia Advisors

"Just as the Ah Q mentality held back China’s modernization a century ago, similar thought patterns are holding back the necessary reforms that would propel China into the league of developed countries." Our Associate Partner Donald Low writes for The Diplomat on why readers should still remain cautious and skeptical about China's economic prospects despite its recent blitz of policy stimulus. "Like the governments of most countries, it is often myopic and torn between short- and long-term goals", he argues. Read the article on The Diplomat here https://lnkd.in/gmwKhfCA #china #economics

"If policy does not respond in time...slower growth and deepening deflationary pressures [in China] could create major stresses in the financial sector and perhaps even trigger a crisis.." Our CEO Manu Bhaskaran writes for The Edge on China's economic prospects. He argues that the cyclical turnaround is on weak footing as a moribund property market, tepid policy support, and downbeat animal spirits take their toll on the economy. Policy has to shift if further deterioration is to be averted. Read the full article on The Edge https://lnkd.in/gDdQ4c3m #china #economics #asia

"Given the immense changes in the investment environment that are unfolding, one can rightly question whether what worked well in the past few decades will still work well for Singapore." Our CEO Manu Bhaskaran writes for The Edge on changes in the world asset pricing regime and what it means for the management of Singapore's national savings. Read the full article on The Edge https://lnkd.in/gdVUSYyU #Singapore #savings #economy

"In China, it is becoming increasingly clear that “to save ordinary folks, we have to save the real estate sector”." Our Associate Partner Donald Low writes for the South China Morning Post SCMP about China's ongoing economic difficulties. He argues that the US response to the 2008 financial crisis provides useful lessons that Beijing can apply if it is to decisively resolve the property market slump and restore consumer confidence. Read the full article in the link below: https://lnkd.in/dM3iQS4c #china #economics #asia #publicpolicy

"Rather than buffer the economy from external shocks and bolster its flexibility and resilience, a more ideologically-oriented, security-obsessed government may be causing uncertainly and volatility, and delaying its recovery.  " Our Associate Partner Donald Low writes for The Diplomat, arguing that a fixation on ideologically-motivated strategic objectives has kept Beijing from rolling out more decisive support measures to shore up a sluggish economy. Read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/g-tvFFwQ #China #Economy

"The improved dynamics in the US-China relationship will reduce the risks of major geo-political disturbances in our region. ... Domestic political stability is also largely getting better. " Our CEO Manu Bhaskaran writes for The Edge on why despite depressing global headlines, political risks in Southeast Asia are largely manageable for the region's economies. Read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/d5PVYkkX #geopolitics #southeastasia #economy

"While the Jokowi era saw strong foundations laid for Indonesia’s further development...the remaining work that Prabowo needs to undertake could prove challenging." Our CEO Manu Bhaskaran writes for The Edge on the economic and political challenges that await Indonesia's incoming president. Read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/giUbi3Xc #indonesia #elections #economy

"With so much at stake, there is a strong incentive for Vietnam to end this political uncertainty...That, unfortunately, may take a while." Our CEO Manu Bhaskaran writes for The Edge on the recent political turmoil in Vietnam and how it risks jeopardizing the economy's promising growth trajectory if not resolved. Read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/gayJG4r5 #vietnam #economics #asia

“We in Southeast Asia will just have to hope for the best and prepare for the worst”. Our CEO Manu Bhaskaran writes for The Edge on what the Biden-Trump rematch for the American presidency means for our part of the world. Read the full article on The Edge: https://lnkd.in/gW_2KRDW #uselection #biden #trump #asia #economy

"Another bout of rising current account surpluses in China ...would encourage trade and other measures that could hurt Asian interests:" Our CEO Manu Bhaskaran writes for The Edge on why the new emerging wave of global imbalances could be much less benign than previous episodes. Read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/gmUyqhQx #china #economy2024 #tradepolicy #asiapacific